Your Week 16 DFS/Betting Guide from @BalesFootball
First off, a moment of silence for Glenny Balls. The fact he came onto the podcast despite being on his death bed hurting his finger is something special. I’ve spoken to Glenny in real life for a grand total of about three seconds, but there’s just something about him that makes you feel like you’re best friends. I’m thinking about putting him in my Top 8 is all I’m saying.
Prop Bets
A little update on some bets I talked about in past weeks…
1) I told Nate I’d stake him heads-up against Pres in poker, and Nate says David is dodging him. Tweet Pres to see if we can make this happen, assuming he can play without getting chocolate cake all over the cards. Without knowing how good Nate is at poker, I’m guessing he’s around 70-75% to beat Pres.
2) I decided on the parameters of my workout bet, which will be that I need to weigh in at no more than 180 pounds and bench press 225 pounds at least 15 times by June 1. I can barely bench press 225 pounds at all right now, and I weigh 184 pounds, so let me know if you want action for what should basically be free money.
DraftKings Player to Target
WR Corey Coleman vs SD $3900
Casey Hayward might be playing the best football of any cornerback in the league right now. He’s recently held Amari Cooper to one catch for 28 yards, Kelvin Benjamin two one reception for 11 yards, Mike Evans to three catches for 38 yards, and DeAndre Hopkins to five catches for 70 yards. None of them scored.
Hayward is expected to shadow Terrelle Pryor, leaving Corey Coleman to mostly face off against Trevor Williams. I already like Coleman a whole lot and think he’s a future star, and rookie receivers tend to progress substantially by the end of their first seasons.
Let me be clear that this isn’t a “mortal lock” and Coleman clearly has a higher chance of putting up a dud than a lot of other guys. If you want someone safer, go with Michael Thomas, who should see a lot of Vernon Hargreaves—a cornerback who has given up more receptions, yards, and fantasy points than anyone in the NFL this year, according to ESPN’s Mike Clay.
DraftKings Player to Avoid
QB Tom Brady vs NYJ $7700
I wouldn’t consider Brady at all in cash games because Brees is $300 cheaper. There’s some chance the Pats come out and throw all over the Jets because they’re far weaker against the pass than the run, but there’s also very little chance the game turns into a shootout. The Pats are currently 16.5-point favorites, and I don’t think that line is off. Continually using quarterbacks on huge favorites is a trap because they often underachieve and are highly owned in tournaments. I also have the Pats projected at the fourth-fewest plays of the week, mostly due to game flow.
Bet of the Week
ARZ +7.5 at SEA
Brian Burke is a really sharp football analytics guy, and he has a metric called EPA (Expected Points Added) that I reference a lot. Some other advanced stats show the Seahawks as clearly superior to the Cardinals, but he has them exactly the same.
Post week 15 team EPA plot. Up & right is good. This time w/ the Fisher Line and an illustration of how to tell the best and worst teams. pic.twitter.com/DFLs9if7Ap
— Brian Burke (@bburkeESPN) December 20, 2016
This is less an indictment of Seattle than it is me just thinking Arizona shouldn’t get more than a touchdown in almost any matchup.
CLE to win +210
I also like the Browns this week. They opened as six-point home dogs, but have since moved to 5.5 despite getting only 24% of bets, i.e. sharp money seems to be on them. At 5.5, I’d rather just take Cleveland to win straight up at +210.
Read of the Week
Ego Is the Enemy by Ryan Holiday
If you have any interest in marketing, you’ll like Holiday’s other books. This is one of my favorites, though, and it helps drive home a point I think is useful in every aspect of life, which is that you’re probably not as funny, smart, good-looking, or athletic as you think you are, and realizing that is the first step toward success.
As it applies to DFS, I pretty much guarantee you’re not as good as you think you are. You know football inside and out? Cool, it doesn’t matter. Not only does almost everyone else, but knowing football is way, way less important than you might think in being good at daily fantasy football. The biggest leap I made as a player was when I stopped pretending I’m never wrong, accepted I’ll be wrong very often, and then instead tried to figure out ways to benefit from others’ overconfidence.
Deep down, I know you know you suck at predicting football outcomes. We all do. Just admit it and figure out how to beat the game in other ways.