Previewing the Michigan/Florida State Elite Eight Game

No. 3 Michigan vs No. 9 Florida State – 8:49 pm, TBS – Los Angeles
Line: Michigan -4

It’s not a surprise that Michigan is here, it’s absolutely a surprise that Florida State is here. While the earlier Elite Eight game will feature two teams that have a similar style, these two teams are a bit different. Florida State runs that extended man to man defense and wants to push tempo. They are the 42nd quickest team in the country, playing offense for an average of 16 seconds per possession. Michigan on the other hand completely slows it down, playing over 18.5 seconds of offense every possession. That’s going to be the key here. Who dictates tempo? If there are 80 possessions, Florida State will win this game, but if it’s played in the 60 or 70s possession range, Michigan controls the game from the get go.

There are very few more complete teams than Michigan this year though. The Wolverines are now the 4th rated defense on KenPom and that’s the difference with this team. It’s by far the best defensive team Michigan has had under Beilein. When you throw in the offense, which is always a staple of a Beilein coached team, you have a team that was a popular Final Four pick before the tournament started.

Let’s talk about that 2-guard offense for a bit. What makes it so difficult to defend is the versatility of Mo Wagner. When you can bring a guy like him out and he’s agile enough to get into an ISO set and take advantage of opposing bigs. At the same time you can use him in these high ball screens with an open lane giving the ball handler the ability to attack off the bounce, Wagner to roll, Wagner to pop or a wing to cut. It’s absolutely beautiful to watch. Now, defensively for Florida State, they have a unique set up. They can guard here due to how many long wings they have, but the problem will be can their bigs step out and defend? That’s ultimately the biggest question when it comes to Michigan’s halfcourt offense.

Look for Florida State to absolutely crash the offensive glass as well. They rank 60th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage and it’s a little bit of everyone. A guy like Terance Mann at 6’6″ is an excellent offensive rebounder as is 7’4″ Christ Koumadje. That’s what makes them tough to check out and keep off the glass. Michigan is an excellent defensive rebounding team, ranking 31st in the country. Here’s a look at some more rebounding numbers:

Bracket pick: Michigan
ATS pick: Michigan