Get To Know The Sweet 16 Teams: South Region

We’ll be doing these for all four regions going forward starting with the Sweet 16. We’ll take a look at the rotations, how the teams got to the second weekend and why they will or won’t win their respective regions. As we move on in the tournament we’ll go more in depth with scouting reports, etc. 

No. 5 Kentucky Wildcats
Record: 26-10
Rotation: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (6’6″), Kevin Knox (6’9″), PJ Washington (6’7″), Hamidou Diallo (6’5″), Jarred Vanderbilt (6’9″), Quade Green (6’0″), Nick Richards (6’11”), Wenyen Gabriel (6’9″), Sacha Kileya-Jones (6’10”)
How They Got Here: 1st round win over No. 12 Davidson 78-73, 2nd round win over No. 13 Buffalo 95-75
Why They’ll Win The Region: The play of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the real story here. The freshman point guard has turned into the star for this team and the go-to guy here in the postseason. In the two NCAA Tournament games he’s averaging 23 points, 7 rebounds and 6.5 assists per game. If you take this back through the SEC Tournament he’s averaging 22 points, 6.6 assists and 5.8 rebounds per game. Now, I’m not a math guy, but those are pretty good numbers through a five game stretch. What makes him so good is he’s starting to play with confidence and hunt for his shot. He’s showing off his ability to shoot off the dribble and instead of getting to the free throw line where he likes to pull up for a jumper, he’s doing it from three. Throw in the fact he’s still able to get to the paint and finish at the rim and he’s probably the best player left in the region. The other thing is they’ll have a huge homecourt advantage here. Atlanta is going to be 90% Kentucky fans, that goes a long way in these neutral court games.
Why They Won’t Win The Region: This is still a team that gets inconsistent on offense and can be stagnant. What happens if Gilgeous-Alexander is in foul trouble? Can Knox continue to run off screens to get his shot? Can Quade Green run the offense without pressing too much? Remember, this is a team that beat Davidson despite not hitting a 3-pointer, that typically can’t happen as the tournament goes on. They are going to be favored in every game they play in Atlanta, which means they’ll be forced to handle success.

No. 7 Nevada Wolf Pack
Record: 29-7
Rotation: Jordan Caroline (6’7″), Caleb Martin (6’7″), Cody Martin (6’7″), Kendall Stephens (6’7″), Josh Hall (6’7″), Hallice Cooke (6’3″), Elijah Foster (6’8″)
How They Got Here: 1st round win over No. 10 Texas 87-83 in OT, Round of 32 win over No. 2 Cincinnati 75-73
Why They’ll Win The Region: This offense is absolutely incredible to watch and the reason they’ve won the first two games. In both games they had to use a comeback, including a 22-point comeback with 11 minutes to go against Cincinnati. The thing is that’s what this offense can do. There’s a mismatch at almost every position simply because everyone is 6’7″. The run a pace and space offense, using Eric Musselman’s NBA past as inspiration. They bring Caroline out to the wing and force opponents bring a big out to guard him, which is a mismatch because he can take you off the dribble, or sit back and let Nevada beat you shooting the ball. This is the 6th best offense in the country and more importantly the best in the country at not turning the ball over.
Why They Won’t Win The Region: Well, on the flip side. This team isn’t great defensively. It’s almost as if they don’t care about the defensive side of the ball, because they know they can beat you with offense. Along with that, there’s simply no depth here. The injury to Lindsey Drew is really forcing Nevada to run a 6-man rotation. What happens if one of the Martin twins gets in foul trouble? What happens if two players do? Because of the size and the way they defend, Nevada is also a terrible defensive rebounding team. Giving up extra possessions and free points can come back and hurt them.

No. 9 Kansas State Wildcats
Record: 24-11
Rotation: Dean Wade (6’10”), Barry Brown (6’3″), Kamau Stokes (6’0″), Xavier Sneed (6’5″), Cartier Diarra (6’4″), Makol Mawien (6’9″), Mike McGuirl (6’2″), Levi Stockard (6’8″)
How They Got Here: First round win over No. 8 Creighton 69-59, Round of 32 win over No. 16 UMBC 50-43
Why They’ll Win The Region: This team can defend anyone in the country. They rank 20th in AdjD and they do an excellent job of switching up looks defensively. I’ll never forget the job they did in the first game against Trae Young, where they had Barry Brown on him and switched faceguarding him, denying, playing him straight up and doubles. It was fascinating to watch that gameplan happen. Against UMBC, they held them to 43 points and before you say ‘oh, it’s UMBC’ that’s a team that wants to get up and down the court and beat you offensively. Kansas State ranks 4th in the country in steal percentage, which typically leads to runouts and easy points. They force turnovers, they win the game.
Why They Won’t Win The Region: The Dean Wade injury and lack of scoring. Yes, Wade has said he expects to play against Kentucky, but just how healthy is he? Wade is the best player for Kansas State as he leads them with 16.5 points per game. He provides a unique mismatch at 6’10” as he can step out and shoot the ball (44% from three) and is also an excellent passer for his height. If he isn’t fully healthy and/or they continue to struggle to score, they’ll be out tonight.

No. 11 Loyola Chicago Ramblers
Record: 30-5
Rotation: Aundre Jackson (6’5″), Clayton Custer (6’1″), Marques Townes (6’4″), Cameron Krutwig (6’9″), Donte Ingram (6’6″), Ben Richardson (6’3″), Lucas Williamson (6’4″), Bruno Skokna (6’4″)
How They Got Here: 1st round win over Miami 64-62, Round of 32 win over No. 3 Tennessee 63-62
Why They’ll Win The Region: Similar to Kansas State, this is a team that’s winning with defense. More importantly, it’s winning by controlling the tempo and then defending its ass for 40 minutes. They rank 27th in AdjD and do an excellent job of not fouling and running you off the 3-point line. That’s going to be the key tonight against Nevada. If they control the tempo (they average over 18 seconds of offense every possession) they are usually in a good spot to win. They want to play games in the 60s, so if they score starts creeping up to the 70s and 80s that’s not ideal for them. Oh, they also have Sister Jean. 
Why They Won’t Win The Region: It’s taken two near buzzer-beating shots for them to advance. Can that actually continue? It almost feels like at some point the ‘luck’ factor should balanced out against them. The other thing that’s a little concerning is they don’t shoot a lot of threes – similar to Kentucky. Against the likes of Nevada and the winner of UK/Kansas State, will its defense be good enough against this sort of talent to make up the lack of 3-point shooting? I also worry a bit about their overall offense. Running offense for 18 seconds, especially the motion offense they run, does usually provide decent looks, but it also just wears you out. With a fairly short rotation, can they play 2 more games at this high of a level?