Previewing the Duke/URI and UK/Buffalo Second Round Games

We’re onto the Round of 32 and the scheduling gets weird here. You have two games pretty much stand on their own to start us off and then from 5-8:00 it’s multi-screen time and keeping up with numerous games at once. So with that in mind I’ll be changing up how I do the previews. I’ll do the first one standing alone and then break it up to either 2 or 4 games at a time. 

No. 2 Duke vs No. 7 Rhode Island – 2:40 pm, CBS
Line: Duke -9.5

Biggest thing to watch here? Can Rhode Island find a way to grab defensive rebounds? The Rams rank 136th in defensive rebounding percentage, but haven’t really gone up against a team like Duke – who is the best offensive rebounding team in the country. Now, I know that’s a pretty simplistic statement, but it’s true. The A-10 doesn’t have that dominant big that can dominate the glass. The one time they did play a guy that is an excellent offensive rebounder, Angel Delgado got 5 offensive rebounds. They’re going to have to find a way to limit Carter/Bagley on the offensive glass.

Now, what URI can do is force turnovers. Duke gets sloppy with the ball, especially on some entry passes. Duke will run a hi-lo set with Carter and Bagley, but they’ll also try to ISO one of the bigs in the post and Trent or Allen on the wing. URI is excellent at forcing turnovers, especially live ball turnovers. Duke ranks 131st in turnover percentage and the problem is the majority of them are live ball turnovers. If you give URI free possessions, they’ll take advantage, especially when you look at the lineup of four guards. They like to get out and run when they can and look to attack off the bounce and then spot up around the perimeter.

Keep an eye on the rotations too for URI. They have a plethora of guards/wings and really only have Andre Berry and Cyril Langevine as its two bigs. With Duke moving to the 2-3 zone permanently, they aren’t as worried about playing against a smaller lineup. They don’t have to worry about Bagley guarding ISO/PnR sets on the perimeter anymore and the 2-3 can be extended against a team like URI. Remember, the way to beat this zone is by passing. It’s going to be important for URI to not get stagnant and just pass around the perimeter.
Bracket Pick: Duke
ATS pick: Duke

No. 5 Kentucky vs No. 13 Buffalo – 5:10 pm, CBS
Line: Kentucky -5.5

This is a game that should be up and down. Buffalo wants to get out and run – ranking 5th in average offensive possession length. They want to push the tempo and then get in secondary transition. The offense they run involves cross screens for the wings to create some false motion. A big comes up to set a high ball drag screen with a pop while another big dives to the rim. They look to attack with Wes Clark, CJ Massinburg and Nick Perkins. They are incredibly fun to watch and we saw them just absolutely kick Arizona’s ass on both sides of the ball. It’s going to be vital for Kentucky to communicate defensively, especially with how they tend to switch screens. Look for Buffalo to try to isolate against Nick Richards in an effort to pull him away from the rim and guard on the perimeter.

For Buffalo defensively, look for them to really sag in the lane. That’s what they did against Arizona in order to take away passes to Ayton and Ristic. It eventually forced them out to the perimeter and completely frustrated them. With Kentucky, they’ll do the same. When you play Kentucky, you dare them to beat you shooting the ball. The difference between Arizona and Kentucky though is they can stretch the floor a bit, especially when they go with the small ball lineup. We’ve seen Wenyen Gabriel hit shots. We’ve seen PJ Washington hit jumpers from the free throw line and take advantage of mismatches there to drive to the rim. Surrounding them with guys like Knox, SGA and Green is the best lineup for this game.

Two biggest things here for Kentucky though. Can they continue to get Knox open looks. For the last 5 weeks or so, Knox has been great for Kentucky because of the switch offensively. They are running him off of baseline screens, flex screens and box to box curl screens. That’s where he’s at his best instead of standing on the wing waiting for something to happen. The other thing to watch – can Kentucky create free points with the offensive rebounds. They are 9th in the country in offensive rebounding while Buffalo is 181st in defensive rebounding. If they are struggling shooting the ball, they can create free points here.
Bracket pick: Kentucky
ATS pick: Buffalo