Previewing the Villanova/Alabama NCAA Tournament Game Today
No. 1 Villanova vs No. 9 Alabama – 12:10 pm, CBS
Line: Villanova -11
I have been breaking these previews up in games of four, but now we have a bit of a different set up. We have Villanova and Alabama as a stand alone game to start us off and the fact we get Collin Sexton vs Villanova means you get a single game preview. Looking at this as a whole, expect this game to be a bit slower and not necessarily as up and down as one would expect. Alabama wants to speed this game up a bit, ranking 86th in the country in average offensive possession length while Nova ranks 220th. The difference here though is the efficiency. Nova is 1st in the country in AdjO on KenPom while Alabama is 97th. Take a look here at the tempo between the two teams:
The first thing that stands how is just how efficient Villanova is. Now, a large part of that has to do with the three ball, something that Alabama is going to have to stop today in order to hang around. The average offensive possessions per game is actually pretty similar, which is something I’m actually a bit shocked by. Now, it’s no surprise that Alabama has a bit more percentage in transition, especially when you look at roster makeup. Guys like Sexton, Petty and Jones are simply better in free space and transition than a complete slow game.
That said, we have to focus on the 3-point line. I talked briefly about this the other day and while Villanova wins by the 3-point ball I don’t find them as dependent as years past. The reason for that is having a guy like Jalen Brunson and even someone like Omari Spellman. What Villanova is doing at times offensively this year is inverting its offense. What I mean by that is instead of running a 4-out, 1-in with a traditional post player in the post, they are putting Brunson in the post and letting him work 1v1 in a guard post. It’s something I absolutely love, especially when you look at how damn polished Brunson is in the post. He has a drop step, he has a fade away and he has a move where he’ll half spin, 2 dribbles in the paint and pull up jumper. It’s magnificent to watch, especially since he’s the best passer on the team and you surround him with four shooters. But, back to the 3-point line. Alabama 219th in 3PA/FGA and 285th in 3pt%. On the flip side, Villanova is 16th in 3PA/FGA and 12th in 3pt%. The important thing here is that Alabama actually does a decent job guarding the 3-point line – something that comes from Avery Johnson’s NBA background. They rank 161st in 3PA/FGA defense and 37th in 3pt% defense.
This is a breakdown of the different sets the two teams run and how effective they are in these sets. Villanova is the blue bar while Alabama is the red bar. Looking at how much Alabama runs pick and roll and transition, I’m curious to see how they defend Sexton. My guess is they put Mikal Bridges on him to try and bother him with length. Bridges is the best defender Villanova has and can potentially bother him by giving him a step and using his length to still have a hand up. The other thing to watch here is how Nova switches all screens and handoffs. If they continue to do that, look for Alabama to try and bring up Spellman in those ball screens and then out of a ball screen get into an ISO set with Sexton vs Spellman.
Bracket pick: Villanova
ATS pick: Alabama