Jake Arrieta Is Headed To The Phillies On A Three-Year, $75 Million Deal

The writing was on the wall when the Chicago Cubs signed Yu Darvish to a six-year, $126 million deal almost a month ago today, but there was still a small outside chance that Jake Arrieta could pull a Dexter Fowler and surprise everybody by walking into Cubs spring training camp after most had figured him to be long gone. That outside chance derived from the incredibly surprising lack of interest in Arrieta during his run in free agency — or, at least the perception that this lack of interest existed due to his name hardly ever coming up in rumors.

The now former Cubs ace was linked to a number of teams purely based on speculation and fit, but nothing seemed to pick up steam until today when there were reports that Arrieta would choose to sign with a team this week. It would be a couple of hours later that we would learn which team that would be, and it’s the Philadelphia Phillies.

Does this move make sense for 2018? No, not really. The Phillies were pegged to be a sub-.500 team this upcoming season, and Arrieta alone doesn’t change that, especially as he heads into his age-32 season. I kind of admired the Phillies for just accepting what they are for now and not spending unnecessary money when they know they’re not ready for that next big step. Prior to signing Arrieta to a three-year deal worth $75 million, they had committed roughly $63.7 million to their 2018 roster. I’m kind of on board with teams not spending just for the sake of spending, assuming that said spending doesn’t really move the needle a whole lot and their window to win isn’t ready for free agent spending.

Now, all that being said, that was the short term view. The 2018 view. Beyond that? I can see it. For years, it has been some sort of foregone conclusion that Bryce Harper was destined to end up in Yankee pinstripes. With the addition of Giancarlo Stanton and the emergence of Aaron Judge, I would say the Yankees are likely going to be out on the Harper sweepstakes next winter. Not the Manny Machado sweepstakes, though. But likely a no on Harper.

The recent belief is that the Cubs have become the favorite to land Harper. But what about the Phillies? They’ve clearly got the need, they’ve clearly got the money to spend, and they’re clearly building towards a window somewhere in the near future where they’ll need a superstar like Harper to supplement their young core of talent that they’re currently grooming. I like Harper as a fit in Philadelphia, and I’m also a huge fan of Aaron Nola. If it’s a three-year deal for Arrieta, will the right-hander still be in Philly by the time this group is ready to contend for a World Series? Probably not. But can he eat some innings and share a wealth of knowledge with guys like Nola and Vince Velasquez? He sure can.

So, it’s a net positive for the Phillies. Much has been made about an Arrieta decline, which is something that you can’t deny. But his decline has really just been taking a pitcher who was on another planet with what they were doing on the mound to now a pitcher who’s still pretty damn good. Yes, his ERA has gone up each year over the last two years and his innings pitched have gone down year-to-year, but he’s still a more than capable starting pitcher who can take the ball for you at least 30 times a season, something he’s done in each of his last three seasons, while zero Phillies starters were able to do that at all last season.