Previewing the Mid Major Conference Tournament Championship Games Today

One of the five best days of college basketball. We have a bunch of tournament bids to hand out, so we’re not going to waste much time getting into it. I previewed the America East by itself, so this will be the other mid major conference tournament title games going on today. I’ll have breakdowns for all the major conference finals by itself later. Let’s get right into it.

MEAC Tournament – Norfolk, Virginia
No. 6 NC Central vs No. 1 Hampton – 1:00 pm

Yes, I know this will likely be a team that ends up as a No. 16 seed or perhaps even in Dayton in the first four games. But, who cares? It’s a bid to the NCAA Tournament. Hampton is the favorite here as the No. 1 seed and beating NC Central 86-70 in the regular season. Expect this game to be played in the lane as both teams rank sub-320 in 3PA/FGA. That’s where Hampton should have an advantage though. They actually do a great job of bothering teams and causing missed shots. The question will be if they can keep NCC off the offensive glass. NCC is the 61st best offensive rebounding team in the country while Hampton is 217th best defensive rebounding team in the country. That’s a huge advantage that can create easy and free points. This game should be close to a home game for Hampton and I expect them to win.

SWAC Tournament – Houston, Texas
No. 3 Texas Southern vs No. 1 Arkansas Pine-Bluff -5:00 pm

This will be an awesome game. Arkansas Pine Bluff actually swept Texas Southern this regular season, but the combined total was just three points. Not to mention Texas Southern does have Demontrae Jefferson, a 5’7″ guard who just go gets buckets. He’s averaging 24 per game and has a sidekick in Donte Clark who is averaging 18 per game. Texas Southern also has the most experience out of this group as it typically schedules nothing but ridiculous road games in the nonconference. This year they played Gonzaga, Washington State, Ohio State, Syracuse, Kansas, Clemson, Oregon and TCU.  That should pay off in this type of environment against APB. Similar to what I said about the MEAC, Texas Southern should have a huge advantage on the offensive glass. APB is the worst defensive rebounding team in the country. Texas Southern needs to crash the glass and get free points. I like Texas Southern here.

Mountain West – Las Vegas
No. 5 San Diego State vs No. 3 New Mexico – 6:00 pm

I talked a little bit about what San Diego State did last night in the sense of beating Nevada and now closing an at-large spot. That’s not good for bubble teams as Nevada will likely get an at-large that people didn’t expect. So here we are tonight with San Diego State playing for an auto bid against New Mexico. San Diego State is really looking the part of what everyone expected in the preseason. They were extremely balanced yesterday with all five starters hitting double digits. New Mexico’s head coach Paul Weir is one to watch. He’s one that will be coaching a power conference in the next couple of years. He’s here in his first year at New Mexico bringing the Lobos to the MWC title game. The key here is going to be New Mexico’s offense vs San Diego State’s defense. Both rank top-50 respectively and if New Mexico can go get buckets and force SDSU to score with them they’ll win here. That said, I expect this to be close but I actually think SDSU wins this and gets Brian Dutcher to the NCAA Tournament.

MAC Tournament – Cleveland
No. 2 Toledo vs No. 1 Buffalo – 7:00pm

Buffalo is a mid major to watch if they win this game. They have some absolute studs in guys like Wes Clark and CJ Massinburg. That said, the biggest thing to watch here is if Toledo’s Tre’Shaun Fletcher is able to play tonight. He’s battling an injury and is questionable for tonight. Fletcher is slapping up 18 points/8 rebounds/4.3 assists per game. That’s massive to say the least. Both these teams don’t really have a desire to get stops and prefer playing this game to outscore each other instead of defending. Look for Buffalo to really push the pace as they rank 5th in the country in average offensive possession length. I like Buffalo here, especially if Fletcher is unable to go. Look for Clark to try and push the tempo as fast as possible.

Big Sky – Reno, Nevada
No. 3 Eastern Washington vs No. 1 Montana – 8:05 pm

Eastern Washington won the only game between these two teams this year. That game was back on February 15 when EWU won 74-65 at home. Montana will look to run its offense through Ahmaad Rorie and Jamar Akoh. Montana will hardly shoot any threes, preferring to play stsrictly in the lane. They rank 343rd in the country in 3PA/FGA, which is a bit weird to see with Montana having no one over 6’8″ in the rotation. EWU wants to slow the game down, but they also want to beat you from three. They like to go in ISO sets and don’t really look to drive and kick. It’s a lot of creating for themselves. That said, I like EWU here.

Conference-USA – Frisco, Texas
No. 4 Marshall vs No. 3 Western Kentucky – 8:30 pm

Second year in a row we have Marshall in the Conference-USA title game and they are incredibly fun. They are coached by Dan D’Antoni and really want to push tempo, shoot threes and beat you that way. Western Kentucky on the other hand was ‘supposed’ to be here in the preseason. Obviously they went through the whole Mitchell Robinson saga, but they still have guys like Darius Thompson, Dwight Colbey, Lamonte Bearden and Justin Johnson. While Marshall is going to push the tempo (3rd in the country) and shoot a bunch of threes, WKU will slow it down and try to get into the lane. Two names to watch for Marshall is Jon Elmore and Ajdin Penava. I really like this Western team and they have a bunch of high-major talent. While Dan D’Antoni is the best dressed coach in America (seriously the Marshall t-shirt under sports jacket is awesome) I’m taking WKU today due to how well they run teams off the 3-point line.

Southland – Katy, Texas
No. 3 Stephen F. Austin vs No. 1 SE Louisiana – 9:00 pm

These two teams played just once this year with SE Louisiana winning 73-62 at home. Keep an eye on Jordan Capps for SE Louisiana. He’s arguably its best player and came off the bench yesterday while dealing with an injury. If he’s not completely healthy, SFA could steal one here. This game is going to come down to something pretty simple though. SFA is the best in the country at forcing turnovers. SE Louisiana ranks 262nd in taking care of the ball. If they take care of the ball, they win. If not, SFA will have a bunch of run outs and easy layups. That can’t happen in this game. I trust SFA to force those turnovers and more importantly force those live ball turnovers. I’ll take SFA as the 3 seed.

WAC – Las Vegas
No. 3 Grand Canyon vs No. 1 New Mexico State – 10:00 pm

New Mexico State has been a great team all year. They’ve consistently ranked in the top-60 in KenPom with a sweep of New Mexico and neutral court wins over Davidson and Miami. This team is real good. Grand Canyon had high expectations coming into the year, which is its first year eligible for the postseason. They are led by a trio of Keonta Vernon, Joshua Braun and Casey Benson. Those three need to have big games tonight along with Alessandro Lever. Here’s the reason. New Mexico State has Jemerrio Jones, who is averaging 10 and 13. You have to keep him off the glass. New Mexico State also has Zach Lofton scoring 20 a game. This will be a defensive game. Both teams rank top-32 nationally on the defensive side of the ball. New Mexico State is the better team, but I’ll take GCU here.

Big West – Anaheim, California
No. 4 Cal State-Fullerton vs No. 3 UC-Irvine

Both teams pulled off an upset in the semifinals to get to the Big West title game. They split the regular season, each team winning on the road by less than 6 points. One little quirk to watch here. Cal State Fullerton is the best team in the country at drawing fouls. UC-Irvine is one of the worst teams at committing fouls. See how the game is called early. If it’s tight and Fullerton is able to get into the lane and draw some fouls, it could be a long game with them at the line. Now what Irvine does well is close out on shooters. They contest every shot, which is where the heavy foul call comes into play. I’m going to take UC-Irvine here.