It's Tiger vs Serpent In Tampa -- The 2018 Valspar Championship Preview
We’re four weeks out from the Masters and the TOUR is BUZZING right now. From JT controversy to Tiger playing back-to-back weeks and an unfamiliar venue to Phil Mickelson re-entering the winner’s circle, golf is red hot… and showing no signs of stopping.
Tiger’s playing a regular TOUR schedule including this week in Tampa along with a bunch of other top dogs. Let’s get to it.
The Event
The Valspar began in 2000 as the Tampa Bay Classic. Money is more of a thing now, sponsorship is king, so no longer have any “[insert local city] Classic”. It’s the Valspar Championship.
From its inception through 2013, the event struggled retaining sponsorship. PODS, for example, signed a 6-year title sponsor deal in 2007 only to exercise their option to withdraw in 2008. But eventually Valspar landed as the title sponsor in September 2013 and they’ve re-upped since. It’s going well, sure helps that Spieth dramatized the tourney with a heroic playoff win during his 2015 tear.
History
Nobody’s won the Valspar more than twice (KJ Choi, Retief Goosen). Canadian Adam Hadwin is our defending champ; he earned his first TOUR win here last year after bending with a 4-stroke lead but not breaking.
The venue traditionally produces final-round drama: 8 of the last 9 years our winner’s won by 1 stroke or in a playoff (Hadwin fended off Patrick Cantlay by 1 last year).
The Track
The Copperhead Course is pretty universally praised by the players. As a 7,340 yard par 71, it’s a very difficult but fair test. In 2016 and 2014, the winning score was just 7-under. Hadwin got to 14-under last year but just 5 players got double-digits deep. It’s a tough golf course.
In 2008, Sean O’Hair won at just 4-under here. You don’t win regular Tour events at 4-under.
Notable Holes
I’ve played here twice. I do a Ryder Cup style event each year with 23 of my buddies from college and three years ago we hit Innisbrook. It was awesome, big fan of the Copperhead Course. While everyone wants to talk about the Snake Pit (16, 17, 18) — and we will — there are a few other holes worth pointing out.
1st, 560 yards, par 5
Tossing the 1st in here because it’s an important birdie hole. This place doesn’t yield a ton of birdies, so guys starting on 1 are REALLY going to feel the pressure to post a 4 or better here. Anything else is disappointing when you know what’s ahead of you.
3rd, 455 yards, par 4
Couldn’t find a great picture showing the challenge of this hole so I grabbed a bird’s eye view. LOVE this thing. It’s eerily similar to the tough 16th, just slightly shorter but more punishing on the left side. The water hugs the right, just like 16, but hedges and bushes up the left really eliminate much of a bailout. You’ll see a lot of guys pulling the chicken stick to ensure something short of the water to keep it in play here.
16th, 475 yards, par 4
16 is HARD and plays a pivotal role down the stretch. As you can see from the pic, water hugs the entire right side. If you bail out left, there’s sand, tree trouble, and a longer approach into this tough green.
Also has this creepy ass serpent on the tee. You’re in the Snake Pit, which wouldn’t be that scary if it weren’t for the fact that snakes are of course evil serpents sent by the devil himself.
17th, 215 yards, par 3
That’s a pretty small target for 215.
18th, 445 yards, par 4
The 18th is medium-length, uphill par 4 with the green that sits back and a bit left. You’ll see a lot of 3-woods here to keep it out of the rough followed by a mid to short-iron into this elevated green.
Spieth famously buried this walk-off playoff birdie in 2015.
Hole just loves to deliver the drama.
Also, don’t miss the Original Hooters tent between 12 and 13.
Clubhouse
I don’t have a picture but like I said I’ve been there — for such a massive, pretty sweet resort, the clubhouse stinks. Just too much going on, too many courses, didn’t hone in on one badass clubhouse. A real shame. There’s a massive entrance/lobby to the entire resort but that doesn’t count. That’s a hotel not a clubhouse.
These resorts actually disappoint in the clubhouse game pretty frequently. Just too much going on.
Innisbrook Clubhouse: 4.8.
Weather
Some Thursday wind and some Sunday wind. Let’s fucking go.
The Field
Some of the bigger ticket draws: Tiger Woods, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Ernie Els, Jim Furyk, Sergio Garcia, Bill Haas, Adam Hadwin, Davis Love III, Justin Rose, Adam Scott, Henrik Stenson.
Predictions
Some betting odds.
Jordan Spieth 8/1
Rory McIlroy 12/1
Sergio Garcia 16/1
Justin Rose 18/1
Henrik Stenson 20/1
Paul Casey 20/1
Tiger Woods 25/1
Tony Finau 25/1
Adam Hadwin 30/1
Adam Scott 30/1
Louis Oosthuizen 40/1
Byeong-Hun An 40/1
Webb Simpson 40/1
Gary Woodland 40/1
Ryan Moore 40/1
Matt Kuchar 40/1
Chez Reavie 40/1
Kevin Na 40/1
Luke List 40/1
Winning Score
Hadwin got to -14 last year like I said, but some wind in the forecast should keep it below that this year. Guys are good, very good, so I see double-digits but not much deeper.
Winning score, -11.
Winner
Folks,,, it’s time.
This course sort of funnels the players into hitting from a lot of the same spots. Considering Tiger lead the field in proximity to the hole at the Honda last time he teed it up, that’s a great sign. I expect lots of less-than-drivers off the tee, fantastic iron play, and putts to drop for BDE this week.
Here’s a look at his action today.
Winner, Tiger Woods.
Dark Horse
Really like Louis Oosthuizen at 40-1. His swing is so pure he can light it up any week, and ball-strikers do well here.
Dark horse, Louis.
Steven Bowditch Memorial DFL Award
Smylie Kaufman. Poor Smylie went 80-83 at the Honda to lock up DFL in a clear blowout. Expecting more of the same from our good friend this week in Tampa.
DFL, Smylie.
Coverage
Thursday & Friday: Golf Channel 2-6 PM
Saturday & Sunday: Golf Channel 1-3 PM; NBC 3-6 PM
Tiger’s off at:
Rory will be in PGA TOUR Live’s featured group on Thursday.
Tiger will be in PGA TOUR Live’s featured group on Friday.
Final Thoughts
We had our girl Paige Spiranac on Fore Play this week and delved deeper into our thoughts on Justin Thomas.
Enjoy the Valspar. Go Tiger go.