Previewing All Five Conference Championship Games Tonight

Tonight stats the busiest time in the year in the sense of how many bids are handed out each night and games going on. We have five different tournament bids to hand out tonight. They are coming from the WCC, Horizon, Summit, CAA and NEC conferences. We won’t waste much time, so let’s just get right into it.

Northeast Conference
No. 4 LIU-Brooklyn at No. 1 Wagner – 7:00 pm, ESPN2

I really like this Wagner team mostly because of Bashir Mason. The 34-year old head coach is one of the youngest in the country and I fully expect him to start climbing up the coaching ladder here, if not this offseason. Mason has had just one losing season in six years at Wagner. Again, it wouldn’t shock me if he ends up in the CAA or an equivalent type league in the next year. That said, both games this year have been really entertaining. It was a split in the regular season with each team winning at home, LIU-Brooklyn by 2 and Wagner by 4. That’s important to note here, considering the NEC lets the better seed host. Wagner getting a home game here should ultimately be the difference. Outside of that, the biggest advantage for Wagner to attack is on the offensive glass. LIU-Brooklyn is a bad defensive team. On top of that they are an awful defensive rebounding team. On the flip side, Wagner ranks 11th in the country in offensive rebounding. Wagner needs to attack the offensive glass and get free points. This game should be played at a slower pace LIU-Brooklyn’s offense is the only one that really wants to speed up tempo a bit, so those extra possessions and points are vital. Keep an eye on how much AJ Sumbry plays for Wagner. He’s one of the best individual offensive rebounders in the country and at 6’8″ has good size for the league. He’s currently playing right on 50% of the minutes for Wagner and it wouldn’t shock me if he plays closer to 60% tonight. I like Wagner here to get to the NCAA Tournament for the first time under Bashir Mason.

Horizon League
No. 8 Cleveland State vs No. 2 Wright State – 7:00 pm

I tweeted this out during the Cleveland State/Oakland game and it’s continuing to hold true. The Horizon League is always the drunkest. In the last two years we’ve had No. 10 seed Milwaukee and No. 8 seed Cleveland State make the Horizon League title game. This was supposed to be NKU or Oakland vs Wright State, but Cleveland State got 2 of its 12 wins this season over those two team in the last two games. So here we are, going to Detroit for another crazy story. We shouldn’t necessarily be surprised though. Cleveland State is coached by Dennis Felton, who pulled off one of the more ridiculous conference title runs during the 2008 SEC Tournament. That was the year the Georgia Dome was hit by a tornado, Georgia/UK played at Georgia Tech the next morning in front of about 300 people (it was awesome) and then Georgia had to play again that night. Cleveland State actually beat Wright State earlier this year 77-74 in Cleveland. Wright State is a good team that survives on defense. It ranks 52nd in AdjD while ranking 249th on offense. The key here is going to be can Cleveland State take care of the ball. The Vikings won an ugly 44-43 game over Oakland by forcing Kendrick Nunn into bad shots and then slowing the game down. Look for Wright State to blitz Tyree Appleby whenever he has the ball due to this 25% turnover rate and being a freshman. If Wright State can force turnovers it should win easily. If Cleveland State takes care of the ball then there’s a decent shot we see a 13-win team in the NCAA Tournament. It’s as simple as that tonight. I think Wright State gets it done.

Colonial Athletic Conference
No. 2 Northeastern vs No. 1 College of Charleston – 7:00 pm, CBS Sports Network

Yeah, needless to say Northeastern is on some sort of run to close the season here. After losing 69-64 to Charleston on Feb. 1, Northeastern has won nine in a row and a large part of that is due to the play of San Diego transfer Vasa Pusica. Pusica is averaging over 17 points and 5 assists per game this year while shooting 42% from the 3-point line. Pretty simple here. Stop Pusica, win the CAA. Now that said, Northeastern does want to beat you defensively. Its AdjD is 100.7 (giving up 100 points per 100 possessions essentially). That’s over 5 points better than anyone else in the conference and 5.5 points better than Charleston. On the flip side Charleston has lost just once in its last 14 games, that loss being at William & Mary in overtime in the last game of the season. This is the best offensive team that Grant has had during his time at Charleston. They can beat you a couple of different ways with Joe Chealey and Grant Riller in the backcourt and Jarrell Brantley up front. All three guys average at least 16 points per game. Northeastern’s defensive philosophy is to run you off the 3-point line. They rank 2nd in the country in giving up 3-pt attempts, which is a massive stat to track. However, that’s not necessarily Charleston’s game. Charleston wants to break you down and get into the lane. They look to break down to score, not necessarily pass. They’ll also ISO Brantley in the post and let him work. I’m going to take Charleston here tonight, a large of it being the game being played in Charleston.

West Coast Conference
No. 3 BYU vs No. 1 Gonzaga – 9:00 pm, ESPN

Well, bubble teams everywhere are now all cheering for Gonzaga. Something that seems to be said more and more as the years have gone by. BYU essentially knocked St. Mary’s out of the tournament (most likely) late last night. Now, it has a chance to knock another team out by stealing a bid. Luckily for those teams, Gonzaga is playing really well and swept BYU this year. I don’t think we’re talking enough about the job Mark Few has done this year. Say what you want about the conference, but he’s replacing 4 guys that led them to the title game and they’ll still be a top-4 protected seed this year again. Few is an elite coach – unlike Joe Flacco. We know about Jonathan Williams and Josh Perkins, but the real story here has been the breakout of Killian Tillie and Rui Hachimura. Both of those guys are interesting NBA prospects, especially Hachimura. Tillie is a 6’10” 48% 3-point shooter. Hachimura is a 6’8″ guy that can play multiple positions. BYU will play through TJ Haws and Yoeli Childs. This is a game where Zach Norvell can be a guy you throw on Haws and just let him dog him for 40 minutes. BYU doesn’t play an up-tempo style, wanting to slow it down and dump it to Childs when possible. I think Gonzaga is flying a bit under the radar even still, I’m going to take them to win here and bubble teams can breathe easily.

Summit League
No. 2 South Dakota vs No. 1 South Dakota State – 9:00 pm, ESPN2

Make sure you watch this game. It’s going to be awesome. These two teams don’t like each other, you have a star in Mike Daum and a regular season that was split. Not to mention this game is being played in Sioux Falls. Yeah, it’s going to be a great 9pm tip. What’s been key for South Dakota State isn’t just Daum, but the improvement of David Jenkins as a second scoring threat. Jenkins is averaging about 16 a game and shooting 38% from three. That’s just another option to have when the double comes on Daum. For South Dakota, it runs a 4-out motion offense with constant movement. It can become incredibly annoying to defend which leads to defensive breakdowns and a large part as to why South Dakota’s effective field goal percentage is 52.8%. South Dakota has the size in Tyler Hagedorn to throw on Daum, the question is can he defend him when he’s floating out on the perimeter. I’m going to take South Dakota to pull off the upset here. I think you see them get enough stops on Daum and then run that 4-out motion to death.