Previewing the Big 10, Big South, MVC and Atlantic Sun Championship Games

Welcome back. It was a busy day yesterday with games all over the place but we’re back today with important regular season games and conference tournaments going on. However, we’re going to start today by previewing the four title games happening. Obviously, the big one here is the Big 10, but today always really felt like it was March. Yes, the OVC title game was last night, but when there are multiple bids being handed out it just really feels like the time is here. Let’s get right into it.

Atlantic Sun Championship – Florida Gulf Coast, 3:00 pm
No. 2 Lipscomb at No. 1 Florida Gulf Coast

It seems almost surprising that a mid-major tournament has two top seeds making the title game. This should be an absolutely awesome game though as the FGCU crowd will be wild. Lipscomb does come into this game with a bit of momentum as it did beat FGCU at FGCU on Feb. 17 by three. Florida Gulf Coast has a star in Brandon Goodwin and is a bit more balanced than Lipscomb. FGCU isn’t going to kill you from the outside though as it ranks just 314th in the country in 3PA/FGA. What this game will be is up and down. Lipscomb ranks 12th in the country in average possession length offensively while FGCU ranks 125th. Look for both teams to try and attack off the bounce and get into the lane and look for either a lob or finish with a runner.
Pick: FGCU

Big South Championship – Radford, 1:00 pm
No. 5 Liberty at No. 2 Radford

Both teams actually pulled off upsets yesterday as Liberty caught No. 1 UNC-Asheville and even though Radford was the No. 2 seed it was a 3 point dog to No. 3 Winthrop. So here we are on Sunday now with a game at Radford. The Highlanders swept Liberty this year, winning by 2 in OT at home and 13 at Liberty back on February 22. This game should be low scoring as both teams rank sub-175 offensively. Both teams also play a similar style on offense, which needless to say is slow. Radford ranks 344th in average offensive possession length while Liberty ranks 345th. The matchup to watch though will be Radford on the offensive glass. They rank 60th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage, which is huge for a team that plays such a slow style. However, Liberty ranks second in defensive rebounding percentage. If Liberty is able to keep Radford off the offensive glass, it should win this game. Limiting those free extra points and keeping the possessions at a minimum will be key. The other key to watch is how Radford shoots the 3-point ball. Liberty gives up a bunch of looks from deep, ranking 348th in the country in 3PA/FGA while Radford has a 39.9 3PA/FGA rate.
Pick: Liberty

Big 10 Championship – Madison Square Garden, 4:30 pm
No. 5 Michigan vs No. 3 Purdue 

Another Big 10 Tournament, another time Michigan is in the title game after playing on Thursday. I’m excited to watch this game as both games earlier in the year were close and entertaining. Purdue swept Michigan, beating them by 1 in Ann Arbor and 4 in West Lafayette. The difference now though is Michigan is playing better defense than it was in the previous games. The important thing for Michigan is the fact it actually matches up well against Purdue. Mo Wagner and Jon Teske can play Isaac Haas 1v1 in the post. That’s the important thing for teams now. If you can play Haas 1v1 and not have to double you’re not leaving a shooter. Purdue is at its best when the ball goes into Haas, a double comes and he kicks it back out. This usually creates a poor defensive rotation and Purdue might be the best team in the country at swinging the ball around the perimeter, making the extra pass to get an open shot. It also helps that Purdue is the best 3-point shooting team in the country at 42.4% as a team. What’s been important for Michigan over the last eight games has been Duncan Robinson’s shooting. Over the last eight games he’s shooting 53.4% from behind the arc on 43 attempts – he’s shooting 39% for the season. If he is able to get a couple of open looks to fall early, that will be key. I think what I’m looking forward to the most is Charles Matthews defensively vs Vincent Edwards though or perhaps the Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman vs Carsen Edwards. For Purdue offensively, Carsen Edwards is the guy. They don’t necessarily have someone who can break the defense down off the dribble to create for others, but C. Edwards is excellent at getting into the lane to finish.
Pick: Michigan

Missouri Valley Championship – St. Louis, 2:05 pm
No. 1 Loyola Chicago vs No. 3 Illinois State 

Here’s your weird stat of the day. Loyola beat Illinois State twice this year, both scores being 68-61. On top of that, both games were 33-28 at halftime. Now, I don’t know what that means, but it’s something. Loyola isn’t going to kill you shooting the ball from three, but they are an efficient offense. Most of that is due to Clayton Custer, the MVC Player of the Year, who is a little banged up at the moment but still the person you need to slow down. For Illinois State it all runs through Malik Yarbrough, who is averaging 17/6/4 this year. Illinois State wants to get the ball and go offensively and then completely slow you down on the defensive side of the ball. They dare you to beat them shooting the ball, so it’s vital that you’re able to attack the gaps and look for a clean shot. Now, I know 3-point shooting percentage is a weird stat and not one to totally buy into – how many threes you take is a better stat to look at, but Loyola is 13th in the country at 40.1% from three. If they are able to step into open looks and hit a couple early they could coast here.
Pick: Loyola