Barstool Contender Series: Just How Good is This Texas Tech Team?

This was a series I started last season and something I want to continue this year. The goal of this is to highlight and discuss teams that are flying a little bit under the radar that can contend on a national stage. Last year we covered the likes of Cincinnati, South Carolina, Dayton, Maryland and Notre Dame. We’ll take a look at different teams across the country as the season goes on, typically before or right after a marquee game and breakdown their strengths, weaknesses and what to expect moving forward. We start this year with Texas Tech. 

Texas Tech may no longer be under the radar thanks to last night’s 85-73 win at Kansas in which the Red Raiders led and quite frankly dominated the entire game. That said, people will still doubt them because Texas Tech isn’t a name program. They are often forgotten about when listing Big 12 teams and I’ve had former Big 12 players tell me Lubbock was always the least favorite road trip because there’s simply nothing there. To be honest? That’s all fine with Texas Tech. It fits who they are and it starts with their head coach.

Last year there were a wave of big time hires in the coaching ranks but one seemed to – a growing trend here – fly under the radar. Even with the somewhat crazy story of Chris Beard accepting the head coaching job at UNLV only to eventually leave it in a few short days to head to Lubbock. Beard has ties to Texas Tech and that’s something important to remember as many think he’ll be here for the short term. He was the associate head coach under both Knights from 2001-2011 before leaving to coach in the ABA, McMurry (D3) and Angelo State (D2) before getting his first head coaching gig at the D1 level at Arkansas Little-Rock. All he did there was lead them to a first round win over Purdue before getting the UNLV and eventually the Texas Tech job.

Beard’s coaching style is starting to show. He likes to recruit athletes and play the packline defense, something that has now moved the Red Raiders to fifth in KenPom’s rankings. On top of that they rank 4th in AdjD, 5th in turnover percentage and 5th in steal percentage. Simply put, they are overwhelming teams defensively and forcing live ball turnovers which lets guys like Zhaire Smith, Zach Smith, Keenan Evans and others get out and finish at the rim. In fact that’s what Texas Tech did to Kansas last night in Phog. Tech ran Kansas off the 3-point line, holding the Jayhawks to just 23%. They forced 15 turnovers and they outrebounded Kansas 44-29. To me though, you have to start with defense when you talk about Texas Tech.

They rank in the 99th percentile nationally per Synergy when it comes to overall defense giving up just .745 points per possession. This has been against decent competition too as they’ve played six top-100 KenPom teams so far this year, going 5-1 with the lone loss of the season coming to Seton Hall in a semi-away game. What makes them so strong defensively goes back to what I said earlier about the athletes and size that Beard likes to recruit and play with. They get back in transition – something we saw against Kansas. Whenever there was a made shot, Kansas wanted to push the tempo while Texas Tech was able to get back and set up the defense. From there Beard rotates 9-10 guys every game to keep them fresh and let them compete. He preaches defense and using energy there while the Red Raiders are skilled enough offensively to win games without having to fully rely on a defensive shutdown.

They also have strong team defense and rotations. Watch the rotation here from last night’s game. This is how the play starts: 

It should be an easy shot for either Graham or a drive and kick for someone else. Tech is essentially caught out of position with the double down low on Azubuike after the offensive rebound. However, watch the play develop below. You can say Graham makes the first mistake by not stepping into the shot and having an open look at three. As he’s able to take a dribble to the free throw line is where you see Tech really rotates well. Justin Gray steps up to take away Graham’s drive. As he does that Evans dives to the wing to take away the kick to Cunliffe, which makes it seem as if Svi is open. However, Culver is able to get back in the play and rotates there to intercept the pass. It’s something small and simple, but a large reason as to why Tech is ranked 4th in AdjD.

Defensively they are also quick with their hands. They tend to force steals by digging at drives or diving into passing lanes like this. We saw them last night against Kansas rotate and take charges on the drive and kicks that Kansas likes to run, but against Baylor they preferred to dig for steals. What’s key about that is how it lets them get out in transition. Texas Tech is a decent half court offense team ranking in the 78th percentile nationally per Synergy, but they truly thrive in transition. They are scoring 1.24 points per possession in transition, led by Zhaire Smith, who may be the most athletic player in the Big 12, with 1.704 ppp. You can see here against Baylor the dig in the post to draw the steal and then how quick Tech turns it around offensively. They do a great job of filling the lane as Gray gets wide enough to create a passing lane and Smith hangs back as a trailer.

Texas Tech is fairly balanced offensively with Keenan Evans being the go-to guy at 16 points per game. Only two other guys are averaging double digit points per game (Zhaire Smith and Jarrett Culver) but eight of the 10 guys that average at least 13 minutes per game also average 5-16 points per game. What they do extremely well though is cut off the ball. This is an average shooting team, in fact you can say the weakness is 3-point shooting with them ranking 282nd in the country in 3PA/FGA, but shooting 35% as a team. They have 116 possessions this year in which the end result has been a ‘cut’ which is about 10% of all possessions. They are scoring 1.284 points per possession out of this set, which is in the 86th percentile nationally. This play stuck out to me last night, late in the game. Kansas had just scored to cut the lead to 7 with 1:20 to go, we’ve seen them do this before at Phog Allen. They applied a trap and instead of panicking Zhaire Smith got to the middle of the floor, and well, did what he does best:

So all in all what do I think of this team? I think they have a legit shot to win the Big 12, as there seems to be a logjam up top with Texas Tech, Oklahoma, West Virginia and Kansas while TCU isn’t far behind. Getting a road win at Kansas gives them what feels like an extra half game over the others due to the fact and historical evidence that Kansas simply doesn’t lose at home often under Bill Self. This is a clear cut top-10 team in the country at the moment who could be a Final Four contender. You’d like to see them be a little more consistent in the halfcourt offense, especially shooting the ball, but when they grade out as ‘very good’ there with the excellent defense, it’s hard to argue with what they have. Keenan Evans is a legit All-Big 12 player and the roster is made up for success in the future as well. Yes, there are five senior on this roster, but there are still five others in the rotation returning for Beard.

Speaking of Beard, we should stop talking about where he’s going next. It’s a very real possibility he coaches at Texas Tech for the next 20 years. He’s only 44 years old and has already spent 12 years in Lubbock, Texas as an associate head coach or head coach. He can build something here and turn Tech into a Big 12 name. This isn’t some sort of flash in the pan or one win and disappear to the middle of the Big 12. This team has the depth and talent to compete. They can give you different looks by going 10 deep and are ‘match up proof,’ meaning anything you do with your rotation they can match. This is a team worth watching as the season goes on because they should be a second weekend team in the NCAA Tournament.