OddsShark Presents Glenny & The Bets
It feels good to have something to talk about and bet on that’s not one of the 4 major sports. It’s officially Triple Crown season, fellas. The Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes all within the next couple of weeks. This Saturday is the big kahuna, The Kentucky Derby. 20 of the world’s best 3-year-old ponies at the historic Churchill Downs. What’s better than that? Post Time is 6:34. Nothing better. Hopefully Matt’s insight along with my probably less-useful insight can win you some cash.
Let’s see who Matt likes in the Derby this weekend below
Its Kentucky Derby time folks. Horse racing szn is upon us. It is a wide open field this year, presenting great value wherever you decide to go. Last year I had a great Triple Crown and actually hit a trifecta in the Derby if you are willing to take my word for it. My strategy is pretty simple, and different than a normal day at the track. Basically I just watch the film. Here’s a breakdown of the horses I’m looking at, pick your spots.
- Classic Empire 4/1
- Currently the second favorite, I expect the 2016 Breeders Cup Juvenile Champ to close as the fave. This horse was an extremely impressive two year old, and showed that it can play in a crowded front in the Arkansas Derby. While the Arkansas Derby might look the most similar to Saturday’s race, the pace will be much faster. It is hard to say a horse with this talent won’t be near the front, but some 3 year old woes leave the door open for the field.
- Always Dreaming 4/1
- Not really getting the hype here. Florida Derby win is impressive but trainer Todd Pletcher has had virtually no success coming up from Gulfstream to Churchill Downs. The man is 1 for 45 in Kentucky Derbys. If he breaks through this year I think it will be with his other entries, namely Tapwrit with Jose Ortiz on him going off at 25/1. Hard pass here though.
- Irish War Cry 6/1
- Best name in the race, and the horse is legit. Impressive in the Wood Memorial and Holy Bull, where the pace was where we need it. A quizzical 7th place finish will give bettors pause, and it is hard to place his wins in context with a race that will be so close down the stretch. I like him a lot.
- McCraken 6/1
- With all due respect to his connections, fuck this horse for being 6/1. I just don’t see it. I guess it has the post position for it’s closer mentality but give me a break with the track record and pedigree. Hard pass.
- Gunnevera 12/1
- Now we are talking. Gunnevera had a great run in the Fountain of Youth and has the speed to come on late in this one. I don’t know the trainer but Javier Castellano is a helluva jockey and I will be playing this one with the value.
- Practical Joke 16/1
- Why the fuck is trainer Chad Brown sitting on the outside with a dope horse going off at 16/1. I don’t know. Couldn’t tell ya. This horse is a winner, and is at it’s best with a horse next to him down the stretch. I like it a lot a lot a lot.
HOW THEY’RE COMING IN:
10 – Gunnevera, 19 – Practical Joke, 17 – Irish War Cry, 14 – Classic Empire
I will play all win tickets and a couple exacta boxes to keep it funky. Tell me who ya got @mbrowner55.
Hopefully Balls has the winner over here
This year’s race is full of speed. I’m looking at the aptly-named Fast & accurate, Always Dreaming, State of Honor, Irap, and Battle of Midway, and Irish War Cry to set that quick pace early on. I’m sure most of them will die pretty quickly, but if you’re hoping for a wire-to-wire W those are who to go for. I like the favorite, Classic Empire, and Gunnevera to stay in the middle of the pack and make their move late.
I’m torn between picking the 14 Classic Empire and the 10 Gunnevera for the winner. Classic Empire won Breeder’s Cup Juvenile last year and is a solid 2-2 at Churchill Downs along with a recent Arkansas Derby win. It’s rare a Juvenile winner comes on top at the Derby, but Nyquist did it last year. Can it be 2 years in a row? Gunnevera finished in the money at the Florida Derby and there’s just something about him that’s catching my eye. I don’t hate Sonneteer for a longshot play at 50-1 thanks to the Hall of Famer Kent Desormeaux being at the helm.
My pick is Classic Empire for the win along with a 14-10 exacta. I may also throw some small action on the 1 Lookin At Lee and the 12 Sonneteer for a big payout with those 20-1 and 50-1, respectively.
Be sure to check out all of OddsShark’s awesome Derby coverage for the all the extra info you need if you don’t want to take our advice. Nothing like pony trends on top of that. Good luck everyone!