Ranking MLB Rotations: Part 9: The Top 3

samalaska 4/2/2017 10:15 AM

This is the last post. I really hope you enjoyed them all, and I’d love it if you could give me suggestions for future blog posts too. I know these are long so I’ve bolded all of the relevant pitcher names. I’d really love to talk with you all about the rankings or baseball in general in the comments or on twitter.

Prior rankings: 30. San Diego Padres, 29. Cincinnati Reds, 28. Minnesota Twins, 27. Miami Marlins, 26. Milwaukee Brewers, 25. Kansas City Royals, 24. LA Angels, 23. Colorado Rockies, 22. Philadelphia Phillies, 21. Baltimore Orioles, 20. Oakland Athletics, 19. Arizona Diamondbacks, 18. New York Yankees, 17. Chicago White Sox, 16. Atlanta Braves, 15. Tampa Bay Rays, 14. Houston Astros, 13. Pittsburgh Pirates, 12. Seattle Mariners, 11. Texas Rangers, 10. St. Louis Cardinals, 9. Detroit Tigers, 8. Toronto Blue Jays, 7. Cleveland Indians 6. Washington Nationals, 5. Los Angeles Dodgers, 4. San Francisco Giants,

3. New York Mets The New York Mets have arguably the most talented collection of starting pitchers; the issue is that they are rarely all healthy at the same time. This rotation has the biggest boom or bust potential, depending on the doctor’s orders.

Noah Syndergaard, Thor, averages 97.9 mph with his fastball, a mark almost two mph better than any other starter in baseball and hits triple digits frequently. He combines the heater with a nasty slider that drew a 27.5% swinging strike rate, a devilish change that draws whiffs 21.1% of the time a hard cutter with a 15.7% swinging strike rate, and pinpoint control, walking just 2.1 batters per nine innings while striking out 10.7. Syndergaard posted a 2.60 ERA, which understates the quality of his performances; he suffered a .334 BABIP, the fourth-highest number in the MLB despite his high ground-ball rates. His 2.29 FIP led the National League, and the scariest thing is, that at 23, he’s only going to get better. It’s tough to bet against Clayton Kershaw but if I had to choose someone else to win the NL Cy Young this year, I think I’d go with Syndergaard. Jacob DeGrom’s (pictured) 2016 failed to quite match his two superb opening seasons, possibly due to the UCL issues that saw him shut down on September 1. Despite his nerve problems, the long-locked righthander struck out nearly a batter an inning, only walked 2.1 per nine, and posted a 3.04 ERA. His fastball velocity dropped a mile and a half from 2015, but should rebound, while he also features a nasty slider, which drew a .168/.222/.248 slash line and approaches 90 mph. The only worry for DeGrom are his home/road splits, he had a 2.11 ERA at pitcher-friendly Citi Field, compared to a 4.16 mark on the road. Matt Harvey had a brutal 2016, far removed from his elite form. The Dark Knight’s 4.38 ERA lay more than a run over his 3.47 FIP, but the underlying trends are worrying for the 27-year old. Harvey lost 1.5 mph off his fastball, saw the effectiveness of his change and slider diminish significantly, and his strikeouts dropped to just 7.38 per 9. Harvey’s .353 BABIP and 65% strand rate literally HAVE to improve next year, but his low groundball rate and the amount of hard contact he allows means they’re not complete flukes either. Worryingly, his ERA the second time through the lineup was 5.35, and ballooned to 9.47 on his third time through, while he also struggled at home, posting a 5.59 ERA at Citi. Obviously, Harvey had an injury so we’ll have to weigh how much of an impact that injury had on him, but I don’t know that its realistic to expect Harvey to turn into the ace he was in the past in 2017. Zack Wheeler hasn’t played in the majors the past two seasons, encountering a number of setbacks after his 2015 Tommy John surgery. Wheeler has tremendous upside, he struck out a batter an inning with a 95 mph fastball on his way to a 3.54 ERA in 2014, but remains an enigma because of his health issues. Robert Gsellman posted a 2.42 ERA in eight major league starts last season, but that performance may be unsustainable. He struck out 8.5 batters per nine, a significantly higher rate than at any of his minor league stop above A-ball, his average fastball velocity was 93, but he barely reached that in three of his final six outings and he stranded a regression-ready 81.3% of runners. His sinker and cutter are good, his change and curve not so much, but at only 23, Gsellman still possesses tons of potential and could easily take a step forward this year. Steven Matz will start the year on the DL after suffering a setback in his return from off-season surgery to remove bone spurs in his elbow. When healthy, Matz certainly belongs in the galaxy of talent the Mets rotation boasts. The lefty struck out 8.77 batters per 9 innings, walked just 2.1, and his 3.40 ERA is only that high because of an inflated fly balls-home run ratio. Impressively, his ERA the third time through the order was just 3.28. Matz’s best comp on Baseball Reference through age 25 is Warren Spahn, and although its wildly unrealistic to expect him to win 363 games, he still has the potential to be a legitimate top of the rotation starter if he can ever stay healthy.

2. Boston Red Sox The Red Sox’s offseason acquisition of Chris Sale gives them a third bona fide Cy Young contender on their superstar staff that is second to just one. Had it not been for Price’s injury, I think I would’ve ranked them 1st, but, I just can’t do that considering the uncertainty around David Price’s arm.
Chris Sale has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the past five years for the White Sox, with a 3.04 ERA over the span and a top-6 Cy Young finish each year. The lefthander strikes out a ton of batters, although his rate dropped to a merely superb 9.3 per 9 innings from 11.8 in 2015. However, that drop came from a change in approach earlier in the season; he whiffed 11.5 batters per nine in his final 87.2 innings of the year. Sale also has superb control, he walked just 1.8 batters per nine innings; and worries about his transition to Fenway Park should be unfounded, his road ERA of 2.87 was a full run lower than his 3.88 at home, and he gave up just 6 of his 27 home runs away from home. Opponents have a worse on-base percentage and slugging percentage against him the third and fourth time through the line-up than the first, meaning if Sale can work on lowering his pitch counts he will truly be a force to be reckoned with. David Price will open the season on the DL with an elbow problem, although he will not require Tommy John. Durability has been Price’s calling card; he’s started 30+ games every year since 2010 with the exception of 2013 when he only had 27 starts. The southpaw had his worst season since his rookie year in his debut with Boston, with a 3.99 ERA inflated by a spike in home runs. Price’s fastball velocity decreased by 1 mph, but his real issue came in an increased hard contact rate, the 34.8% is the highest of his career by a full 6 percent, and allowing 30 home runs compared to 17 in 2015. That spike looks tied to Fenway, where opponents slugged 50 points higher against him than on the road, despite a lower batting average. Still, Price is an ace, and last year looks like a blip on his stellar career and I expect him to be back to his best this year. Rick Porcello (pictured) produced a Cy Young campaign last year that no one saw coming; his 3.15 ERA was a full run lower than his career average and he led the league in strikeout to walks ratio, producing his lowest career walk total and highest strikeout total in the most innings he’s ever pitched. Do I think Porcello will maintain that level of performance this year? No. Do I think he’ll be as bad as his first year in Boston? Absolutely not. The true Porcello lies somewhere in the middle, his BABIP last year was .269, compared to .332 in 2015, his strand rate was 74.3% compared to 67.5% and his home run to fly ball ratio was 9.3% compared to 14.5%. Average those stats out and you’ll see the Porcello to expect this year, an above-average third starter, but not an ace. Eduardo Rodriguez had a tale of two halves last season, and if his knee remains healthy, the talented 23 year-old could be a potential breakout candidate this year. In his 29.1 innings in the first half, Rodriguez posted a dreadful 8.59 ERA, and gave up nine home runs, before lowering that to 3.24 in 77.2 second half frames, allowing just 7 dingers and striking out more than a batter an inning. In August and September combined, the lefty dished out a .185/.268/.294 slash line. If he continues to increase his two-seam fastball and change-up usage and maintain his second-half performance, Rodriguez could be a valuable asset to the Red Sox lineup. Steven Wright danced his way to the All-Star game with his knuckleball last year, and projects to play a starting rotation role, at least while Price is on the DL. He posted a 3.33 ERA last season; including a 3.01 ERA until John Farrell pinch-ran him and saw him get injured on the basepaths. Upon his comeback, he allowed 9 runs in 10 innings before being shut down. Knuckleballers are inconsistent, so I don’t think we’ll see the Wright who had a 2.68 ERA with a .223/.305/.322 slash line in the first half last year, but he’s established himself as a legitimate big league pitcher. Drew Pomeranz will start the season on the DL, as the injury-ridden lefthander continues to be snake-bitten. He struggled in Boston after his arrival last year, with a 4.59 ERA and barely averaging five innings a start while allowing a ton of home runs. But Pomeranz can stay healthy and continue to flash his excellent fastball and curve, on which batters have hit under .220 combined over the past three years, he could be a solid contributor on his return from the DL.

1. Chicago Cubs The Cubs rotation was the best in baseball last year, and a crucial component to their World Series success. The key figures all return as the Cubs look to continue the transformation from champion to dynasty.
Jon Lester can’t throw over to first base, but he can do everything else on the mound. The durable lefty has made 30+ starts in all of his full big-league seasons and has a combined 2.74 ERA over the past three seasons. Although his .256 BABIP last year, the eighth-best in baseball, is likely to regress a little bit, Lester induces a lot of soft contact and a high ground ball rate and with one of the best defenses ever behind him, that number shouldn’t jump too much. Combined with his high strikeout rate and low walk rate, expect more of Lester’s consistent excellence at the top of the rotation. Jake Arrieta came back down to earth after his otherworldly 2015, his 3.52 FIP was almost double that of his 2015 number, despite his .241 BABIP that will regress slightly for the exact same reasons as Lester’s. Arrieta dropped off precipitously in the second half, posting a 3.69 ERA compared to 2.68 in the first half, and a 4.60 mark in September and October. His walk rate almost doubled to the highest its been since he became JAKE ARRIETA, but he maintained a consistent strikeout rate and although his velocities all dropped by around 0.5 MPH, there’s not much to worry about there. Do I expect Arrieta to continue being a righthanded Clayton Kershaw? No. But will he be a top-notch starter and an All-Star? Absolutely. John Lackey had his highest strikeout rate of his career last year at age 37, but regression in a number of other key areas made him less valuable than he was in 2015 and indicate that he might not have much left in the tank. His .255 BABIP can not be as easily explained by high ground-ball rates and limiting hard contact, his 34.4% hard contact was the highest of his career. Lackey can be a competent starter at this stage of his career, but not much more. Kyle Hendricks (pictured) was the breakout star of the 2016 season, leading the NL with a 2.13 ERA, a mark that was more than a run lower than his 3.20 FIP. Unsurprisingly, his .250 BABIP was the fourth-best mark in the league, and only Arrieta slightly edges him out in ground ball rate and limiting hard contact, so if Hendricks continues to pitch with the Cubs defense behind him, that number won’t shift up much. Hendricks throws his changeup 27% of the time, only Marco Estrada threw a higher percentage, and batters hit .132/.162/.229 against it, really, with a 23.5% swinging strike rate. Despite his fastball barely touching 90, Hendricks is more than a shooting star, he’s the real deal. Veteran lefthander Brett Anderson takes over the last starting spot from Jason Hammel, after missing almost all of last season with a back injury. Anderson is a groundball specialist, posting a 66.3% groundball rate in 31 starts with the Dodgers in 2015, which makes having the Cubs defense behind him a match made in heaven. Mike Montgomery spent most of 2016 in the bullpen after the Cubs acquired him in July, saving Game 7 of the World Series, but did make five starts and will be a candidate to toe the rubber if Anderson or another starter suffers some health problems. The southpaw’s 2.82 ERA in Chicago masks his worrying 4.74 FIP, high home run rates and significant control problems, problems the 27-year old didn’t suffer at all from in Seattle and will need to rectify to be effective at all.

Follow @SAlaskaBarstool