2017 NCAA Tournament Breakdown: Midwest Region
I’ll be looking at each region over the next couple of days as the NCAA Tournament gets ready to tip. We’ll look at matchups to watch, previews, picks, players to watch and what team could be a sleeper to come out of each region. With the play-in games happening, we’ll try to save some of those regions for later in the week and start with those where we don’t have to guess what 11 seed will be playing in the Round of 64. I’ll be releasing my entire bracket on Wednesday so there won’t be a ton of revealing here.
Midwest Region:
Storylines
1. Can Michigan continue its hot streak?
It was one of the best conference tournament stories of all-time when Michigan won the B1G Tournament on Sunday. Between the accident on the plane, Derrick Walton not really wanting to travel after that but deciding to go because the majority of votes won then going an winning MVP, winning four games in four days and the fact they beat the No. 1, 2 and 4 seeds to get there was just awesome. But, now they have to get ready to play again and it’s no cakewalk. The Wolverines drew a wildly underseeded team in Oklahoma State. If Michigan does get past Oklahoma State it does have an intriguing matchup against Louisville in a rematch of the 2013 title game.
2. How will Oregon look without Chris Boucher?
It’s not as significant as a loss as say Kenyon Martin. But, it’s a pretty big storyline as we get ready to head into the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. The Ducks may have fallen a seed line due to the Boucher torn ACL, but really they could be in trouble in the second round if Rhode Island advances. What made Boucher special to this Oregon team was his ability to not only be one of the best shot blockers in the country, but step out and hit 3s. That allowed Oregon to run a 5-out offense and let guys like Tyler Dorsey and Dillon Brooks attack the lane. The Ducks will now look to more Jordan Bell and guys like Kavell Bigby-Williams. I thought Oregon could have been a popular Final Four pick before the Boucher injury, now they have to worry about an early exit.
3. Can Kansas survive that top half of the bracket?
Kansas will obviously be favored in every game here, but that top half of the bracket provides some tough matchups for Kansas. The Jayhawks are obviously playing with a limited roster and a lack of depth in the front court, giving them that unique lineup with Landen Lucas and four shooters. Well, Miami can match that and be a defensive nightmare for Kansas. After that you’re talking about a possible rematch with an Iowa State team that caught them at Phog Allen, a Purdue team with a ton of depth in the front court or a Nevada team that can shoot the ball and has a little bit of a tough matchup in Cam Oliver. Before the season started, Kansas was my pick for the national championship, but this draw did them no favors.
Players to Watch:
There are a couple ways to look at this, but I’m looking at this strictly as an intrigue factor. These are players that could be lottery picks in the NBA Draft, could put a team on their back or are just flat out good players.
1. Monte Morris – Iowa State
He’s one of my two favorite players in the country to watch and what he did in the Big 12 Tournament was unbelievable. He simply doesn’t turn the ball over, as he’s been leading the country in assist to turnover ratio for three years and counting. He’s averaged over 28 mpg for all four years and has just 158 turnovers during his time at Iowa State. That’s a mind-blowing number. He’s averaging just 1.14 turnovers per game for his career. This year though he’s become more of a scorer and can just absolutely take over a game.
2. Caleb Swanigan – Purdue
He’s an All-American for a reason. He simply kills you on the glass and is becoming one of the better post players in the country. He still turns the ball over too much for my liking, which could be Purdue’s downfall in the NCAA Tournament, but he’s going to go out and get you 20 and 10 each game. Now that he’s added that 3-point shot, it makes teams respect his play even more. He’ll have a couple of tough matchups that first weekend, but if Purdue wants to advance, he needs to be the best player on the court.
3. Jawun Evans – Oklahoma State
My other favorite player in the country to watch, Jawun Evans is good enough to lead Oklahoma State to the Sweet 16 by himself. He absolutely kills teams in the pick-and-roll and has drawn comparisons to Chris Paul for the way he attacks off of that. I do like how he can split the hedge and then play 4v3, which makes teams guess how to play that high pick. He’s become a better shooter and despite being smaller in stature he can finish in the paint with a runner. That matchup vs Derrick Walton is going to be all sorts of fun.
4. Josh Jackson – Kansas
Yes, you know the name and you know he’s a top-3 pick in the NBA Draft. But, why he’s on this list is because of what he brings to Kansas. His size and athleticism lets Kansas run that 4-out offense and his rebounding helps make up for the lack of team size. He’s become a better shooter as the season has gone on, which means you have to respect all 4 guys off the bounce or shooting off the catch. The other thing? He missed the last game due to a suspension. How does he bounceback from that in his first (and only) NCAA Tournament?
5. Cam Oliver – Nevada
I mentioned him earlier, but it’s worth looking at him a little bit more. He’s going to play in the NBA and could leave early as he’s just a sophomore. He’s averaging 15.8 and 8.7 each night out and while he’s 6’8″ can step out and shoot 38% from three. He’s a high-major guy playing at essentially a mid-major. Watching him and Deonte Burton go at it in the first round means that a) there will be a dunk that murders the rim and b) two guys that can both rebound the ball and step away with a little bit of height.
Other names to know:
Jeffrey Carroll (Oklahoma State), Anthony Lamb (Vermont), DJ Wilson (Michigan), Donovan Mitchell (Louisville) and E.C. Matthews (Rhode Island).
Best 1st round matchup: No. 10 Oklahoma State vs No. 7 Michigan
It’s a close call between this one and Nevada/Iowa State, but the Walton/Evans matchup is what puts this over the edge. These are two teams that rank in the top-5 offensively per KenPom and can both shoot the hell out of the ball. Defensively they both struggle, but Oklahoma State has gotten better since the switch to shoot the gap at the 3-point line instead of running and trapping everywhere. It should be a fairly free-flowing game as both teams will spread you out and Michigan doesn’t foul a ton. if Oklahoma State can take care of the ball, they’ll win.
Most likely to reach Final Four in order:
1. Louisville
2. Kansas
3. Iowa State
4. Purdue
5. Oregon
6. URI
7. Miami
8. Oklahoma State
9. Michigan
10. Nevada
11. Michigan State
12. Creighton
13. Vermont
14. Iona
15. Jacksonville State
16. NC Central/UC Davis
Teams Underseeded: Iowa State, URI, Oklahoma State
Teams Overseeded: Purdue, Creighton
Matchups you want to see: No. 8 Miami vs No. 1 Kansas, No. 5 Iowa State vs No. 1 Kansas, No. 10 Oklahoma State vs No. 2 Louisville, No. 7 Michigan vs No. 2 Louisville, No. 2 Louisville vs No. 1 Kansas. This region is going to be all sorts of fun as they have two of the best first round matchups. There are teams like Oklahoma State, Iowa State and Michigan that want to play uptempo and/or kill you with shooting. I do want to see the top two seeds in the Elite Eight as I do believe they are easily the two best teams, but they need help. Louisville needs to shoot the ball better while Kansas needs to avoid foul trouble.