Looking at the Strengths of Five Title Favorites in College Basketball

It’s getting to that time of the year where this is one of the two questions that gets asked on a daily basis. ‘Who are the favorites to win the NCAA Tournament?’ The other question being ‘is this team on the right side of the bubble?’ Title talk tends to be more fun than bubble talk, especially this year when there are about a dozen or so teams that could realistically be picked to win it all. However, over the weekend I received the following question:

Right off the bat there were three teams that came to mind to get to five. They were Gonzaga, Louisville and UNC. After that Kansas was a choice I’ve had since the preseason and despite the fact they are squeaking out wins, they still are winning. So then it became who to get to that last spot? Names like Villanova, Kentucky, Arizona, Oregon and Duke all jumped out. I would say those teams are in the same tier when looking at national title contenders. The tier right after that, and it’s really not a large gap between them include the likes of UCLA, Florida State, West Virginia, Baylor and Virginia.

For the sake of argument then these are my five favorites to win without seeing a bracket. That’s the one thing to remember when it comes to questions like this. None of it matters until you see matchups. That’s what the NCAA Tournament is based on. Who you play and where you play. So while these are my five favorites right now, that could completely change once we see the bracket reveal.

1. Gonzaga

There’s a lot to love about Gonzaga and you’re a Goddamn fool if you try to discredit them. Some of the metrics to look at when evaluating a team are who they beat and where, how they control the tempo of games, defensive 3 pt attempts/fgas and defensive rebounding percentage. Those are pretty good metrics to gauge where a team is. Gonzaga dominates pretty much all of them. If you want to knock them for their strength of schedule note they do have neutral court wins over Florida, Iowa State and Arizona while getting a road win in Nashville against Tennessee.

Controlling the tempo? There’s no one better than Gonzaga when it comes to that. They want to play fast offensively and they are 32nd in the country in average offensive possession length. They are getting the ball up the court and in the hands of Nigel Williams-Goss. From there they know how to fill the lanes and Williams-Goss and Karnowski are surrounded by shooters. On the flip side, they make you work your ass off when they are on defense. There’s a 3 second difference between average offensive possession length and defensive possession length. I don’t care who you play, that’s impressive.

When I say defensive 3pt attempts/field goal attempts and defensive rebounding percentage are important, they go hand in hand. If you listened to the podcast I had with Sam Vecenie, we talk about how you can trust a team who doesn’t give up a ton of 3pt attempts while also cleaning up the glass. Gonzaga ranks in the top-50 in both categories. Not giving up a ton of 3s, makes it obviously tougher for a team to beat you. That’s the analytical way to look at it – which more teams are starting to do. It’s no secret that the 3-point line is the most important thing in college basketball right now.

But, what I really like about Gonzaga is the balance on the offensive side of the ball and that falls on Karnowski. They can kill you inside or out and you have to decide how you want to play that behemoth in the middle, who happens to be a great passer. Watch this play here. He doesn’t get too high when working for position, catching the ball in the mid-post. Notice how Gonzaga immediately starts to spread the floor, giving Karnowski something similar to a run-pass option for a football quarterback. He can spin baseline if he has it, shoot a baby hook or pass out. After a couple dribble and a commit by Emmet Naar from up top. He spots Jordan Matthews (shooting 39% from three) at the top of the key for an easy step-in three.

2. North Carolina 

Similar to Gonzaga, UNC absolutely dominates the tempo of the game. We’ve seen them play slower games and win and we’ve seen them play up and down games and win. Much like Gonzaga, they also dictate what they want to do. They have similar numbers to the Bulldogs when it comes to offensive possession length vs defensive possession length. A lot of that falls on Joel Berry, who is doing a phenomenal job at being a Roy Williams point guard – which is no easy task. I’m not going to tell you Roy is some great x’s and o’s coach or anything like that. In fact most people agree he’s sort of overrated when it comes to that and gets outcoached quite a bit. What he does though is find the point guard that can understand tempo of the game and know when to push and when it play it a little slow. That’s where Roy excels at coaching. Getting his point guard to understand the game.

However, one of the reasons UNC is a favorite to win it all is Justin Jackson. He’s finally living up to the hype he’s had for the last couple of years and more importantly he’s finally consistent. There are no stretches of games where he’s throwing up seven points. He’s becomes the best player on the Tar Heels (though Berry is more valuable) and is in a tight race for ACC Player of the Year with Luke Kennard. He’s putting up over 18 points a game to go with 5 rebounds and 2.5 assists. On top of that he’s shooting 39% from three and really lets Roy get creative with his lineup changes because of his length. When you look at more in depth numbers, he’s putting up 1.053 points per possession, which ranks in the 89th percentile in the country. A lot of that has to go with his spot up shooting thanks to the drive and kick by Berry and the talent of the frontcourt. Similar to Gonzaga, teams have to decide if they want to double Meeks, Bradley or Hicks or force the kick out. Here against NC State is a prime example of what happens when you try to double down low with Jackson’s guy.

3. Louisville

I actually think Louisville might be the best team in the ACC. I’ve been on this train for a little bit here with the way Donovan Mitchell has come on. Mitchell is now averaging over 15 a game and shooting 37% from three, but over the last seven games he’s averaging 21.7 points per game and shooting 48% from three. If he plays more this way, Louisville is the best team in the country. The question with the Cardinals has always been do they have enough to play in a halfcourt game. Mitchell gives them that. He’s a guy who can go get his own bucket and now makes the defense spread out when he’s shooting. That allows Louisville’s plethora of big men to work in the post and opens the lane up for Quentin Snider, Deng Adel and Jaylen Johnson.

The thing is Louisville’s defense is good enough to carry them to a Final Four. They rank fifth in the country in AdjD on KenPom and the 98th percentile per Synergy with .784 points per possession allowed. It’s absolutely remarkable to watch them play defense, especially in their press. They run a press 23% of possessions this year, which is obviously one of the higher numbers in the country. They can get away with this because of their depth and it’s something we’ll see in March. They turn you over 22% of the time when they are in the press, but more importantly it throws off the rhythm of the offense and doesn’t let you get comfortable. They’ll mix up when they trap and who they trap with, but in this example against Florida State it shows exactly why you can’t be lazy against them.

The trap comes immediately after the ball crosses halfcourt, using the halfcourt line and sideline as defenders. Watch David Levitch look back at the guy he’s guarding and once he notices he’s out of position he makes the sprint to trap CJ Walker. It leads to an easy turnover.

4. Kansas

They lack depth. They lack size. They are squeaking out wins. So how the hell can they be one of the four favorites to win the title? Josh Jackson continues to get better with each passing game and that’s pretty damn scary when you realize they also have Frank Mason – who is one of the two favorites for National Player of the Year. It is a little concerning that their last six wins are by a combined 21 points and had to have a couple comebacks to get there, but the fact is they are wins. That’s all that matters in the NCAA Tournament.

While Jackson is the key piece here, it’s because Kansas now has the ability to completely spread you out on the offensive side of the ball. They run four shooters (Jackson is shooting a reasonable percentage from 3 now) who all can beat you off the dribble as well. The goal is obviously to get Mason or Jackson the ball to beat you off the dribble, but Svi and Graham have no problem getting there as well. I don’t care who you are, that’s a tough matchup. Most teams who run a ‘stretch’ four, usually aren’t athletic enough to stick with Jackson or used to guarding a shooter like Svi. The two biggest strengths for Kansas is spot up shooting and transition. That’s no surprise when you look at the makeup of the team. They’ve had 2,151 total offensive possessions this season. 510 of  those have resulted in spot up shooting and 399 have been in transition. They are getting in their best two sets 42% of the time, again, that means they are dictating tempo and flow of the game on the offensive side of the ball.

Here’s an example of just a very basic play. Mason beats Carter off the bounce forcing Adrian to help. That leaves Vick open, to where Mason has an easy kick out for a wide open three. But, just note how the lane is able to stay open with this small ball lineup. Yes, you don’t want a ‘jump shooting team’ mentality, but threes are so valuable. Kansas isn’t shooting long 2s, they are either at the rim or three. It’s an analytics wet dream.

5. Oregon

I really debated putting Duke here, but I’ll give the nod to Oregon for now strictly because they can lock down and play defense. I still worry about Duke’s lack of point guard and defensive ability. There’s no doubt Duke is the most talented team in the country, but Oregon sneaks into that five spot for now. There’s no doubt that Oregon will thrive on defense because of the ability to protect the rim. They are the best shotblocking team in the country, blocking shots on 18.5% of attempts. They also don’t foul – which in today’s world says a lot, especially with how poor officiating is and can be. They are giving up free throw attempts on just 26% of field goal attempts, which is 15th in the country.

On the offensive side of the ball, they can win the title because of Dillon Brooks. In the NCAA Tournament you need a guy that can just go get buckets and win you a game. See Walker, Kemba and Napier, Shabazz for this. Dillon Brooks does just that. He’s putting up 15 a game while shooting 43% from three. More importantly he’s a complete mismatch when Oregon runs him at the four. They can get away with this due to his size and the fact they have uber-athletic guys like Jordan Bell and Chris Boucher to run the five and protect the rim. Dana Altman (one of the three most underrated coaches in America) has drawn up some beautiful play designs to take advantage of this mismatch as well. The first play of the game is designed to work around the Brooks mismatch. They use the cross screen by Bell to clear out the lane as Brooks cuts through before circling back up to the top of the key. On his first touch after that he sizes up his guy and decides to run a dribble handoff with Dorsey. After Dorsey tries to attack the smaller guy on him it’s another dribble handoff to Pritchard (a trend here). As Pritchard is able to get in the lane he delivers a quick pass out to Brooks, who gets up an uncontested shot. This is something that Oregon excels in by running this 1-in, 4-out offense and having Brooks as your four.

So without seeing a bracket I’d say these are the five favorites. But, like I mentioned earlier you can talk yourself into about a dozen teams winning this thing. It’s going to be an awesome month.