A Handy Guide to Explain How the Patriots Will Win

We don’t often do previews around here. We’re much more geared toward reaction than pro-action. About what did happen as opposed to what will happen, and spend our time on the run up to big events pissing off megacorporations, destroying media entities that oppose us and empire building.

But Sunday’s game is an extraordinary event with history on the line, so it’s worth throwing out the playbook. Besides, two weeks ago I accurately predicted Tom Brady would carve the Steelers defense up like a medical school cadaver and score in the mid-30s on them, and that worked out pretty well. So as a public service to Pats fans who want to spend the weekend armed with fact-based, scientific, Walter White-like periodic table-quality analysis, here’s the only information you’ll need. Here’s your handy guide to explaining how and why the Patriots are going to win. And win big.

Atlanta’s defense is not good. And I’m being kind. The conventional wisdom on the Falcons D is that they didn’t start out so hot (in their first 12 games they held opponents to 21 points only twice), but they got better (since then, only New Orleans put 21 on them, in Week 17). Besides, they really played well against Seattle and Green Bay in the playoffs. But that is not true. If you’re an advanced stat guy, you know that Pro Football Focus uses DVOA as a key stat, and by that they were dead last in the NFL in Weeks 10-17. Even if you factor in the two playoff games, that moves them all the way up to third worst in the league. Opposing quarterbacks threw for a 92.5 passer rating, meaning that statistically speaking, they turned all the QBs on their schedule into Russell Wilson. And they faced the 24th weakest opposing offensive schedule.

Atlanta’s defensive performances in the NFC playoffs were not as impressive as you think. Seattle’s offensive line was bad. Green Bay’s was worse. So banged up that they ended up inserting defensive lineman Troy Guion in at guard, like the German army in 1945 forced to put old men and boys in uniform and send them to the front as cannon fodder. And they got pressure mainly by doubling the amount they blitz, from 14% to about 36%. Belchick will pay Dan Quinn good money to send blitzers.

The Patriots offense is a terrible matchup for Atlanta’s D. Fun fact about the Pats this year that broke my brain. This is from ESPN’s NFL Matchup show. The Pats 3rd down conversion rate based on distance:

1-3 yards: 33%. 4-6 yards: 30%. 7+ yards: 33%

It’s surreal. Such a model of consistency, it’s like down and distance don’t matter. And it speaks to their ability to morph from pass to run to defeat the look the defense gives them. By contrast, here is what the Falcons defense does against “traditional” playcalling. This again is from PFF:

On 1st down against the run: 31st in the NFL

On 2nd and 3rd down against the pass: 28th in the NFL.

It’s that old cliche about being able to run when they know you’re going to run and being able to complete passes when they know you need to throw. The Patriots can cross you up with their run/pass mix. Against Atlanta, they don’t have to.

Atlanta’s defense plays right into Brady’s hands. Like Pittsburgh, this unit is lousy with first and second year players. Linebackers De’Vondre Campbell and Dion Jones are rookies. So is free safety Keanu Neal. Brian Poole is their rookie nickelback, who lately has been playing like Nickelback. Via PFF, he’s been successful when targeted on 38% of the time and giving up yards at a clip of 9.3 per target. That is atrocious. Don’t get me wrong, if the Falcons D was a stock, I’d consider buying it. But only in a long term, 401K type of investment. For now, they’re the kind of defense Brady has traces of in his stool sample.

Atlanta’s pass rush doesn’t match up well with the Pats’ O-line. If Dante Scarnecchia’s little reclamation project has a weakness, it’s that the middle of the line can be vulnerable to elite rushers, like when Romeo Crennel gave them more Jadeveon Clowney than they could handle. The Falcons pass rush is Vic Beasley, Brooks Reed and Dwight Freeney carrying a walker with tennis balls on the bottom, all coming outside. On the season their defensive tackles combined for 5 sacks. And again, if they want to mix it up and send extra rushers, Belichick will throw in an unlimited handjibbers from Gronk’s excess supply of coeds.

The Patriots defense is a bad matchup for Matt Ryan’s attack. No question Atlanta had the best offense in the league. The eighth highest point total ever. As I said Monday, I’ll argue that their schedule of defensive opponents and their division was exactly as “weak” as the offenses the Pats faced. But a huge part of Atlanta’s success was based on yards after catch, which the Pats excel at, third best in the league. Yes, their running backs are threats in the passing game. But the Pats have their best tackling secondary 1-6 I’ve ever seen. How weird is this for a unit that led the league? Their top three tacklers and four of their top five were defensive backs. When I was a kid, safety Tim Fox led the team in tackles, and we called that unit The Red Sea Defense because any old Israelite in sandals could walk right through it.

History is on the Patriots side. 16 times the No. 1 overall defense in points allowed has made it to the Super Bowl. They’re 12-4. 20 times the highest scoring offense has. They’re 10-10. And in the five times the No. 1s have faced each other? The defense is 4-1. And even that loss doesn’t count because the 1989 49ers had the top offense but also the No. 3 defense.

The bottom line? LomBrady Trophy V comes to Foxboro. And it won’t be close.