Taking A Stab At Predicting The Home Run Derby
I used to love the Home Run Derby. That was back when steroids were literally oozing out of my television screen when I watched it. After the days of the derby being a World’s Strongest Man competition meets batting practice were over, the Home Run Derby got kind of lame. Although, Josh Hamilton’s Home Run Derby performance in Yankee Stadium was easily my favorite non-Ken Griffey Jr. Home Run Derby performance ever, and that was post-Steroid Era.
But then last year happened. Weather forced the MLB to change the rules, so they added a clock to speed things up. It was fucking awesome. It made it so much better, and added an extra element of suspense with buzzer-beater homers and whatnot. It was such a success that they’ve brought the clock back again this year, which was an absolute no-brainer. Here are the rules this year:
Like last season, batters will have four minutes each round to hit has many long balls as possible. In the first round and semifinals, each batter is entitled to one 45-second “time out.” In the finals, each batter is entitled to two 45-second “time-outs.” Thirty seconds of bonus time will be awarded for two home runs that each equal or exceed 440 feet.
Ties in any round will be broken by a 60-second swing-off with no stoppage of time or additional time added. If a tie remains after the swing-off, batters will engage in successive three-swing swing-offs until there is a winner.
It’s actually a pretty solid field this year. I wish Mike Trout would stop being such a pussy and just do the damn thing. He said he wants to do it, but just not this year. What does that even mean? Do it while you’re young and you don’t actually need the All Star break to rest. Anyway, here are the odds for this year’s participants.
Giancarlo Stanton: +325
Mark Trumbo: +375
Todd Frazier: +600
Wil Myers: +600
Adam Duvall: +700
Robinson Cano: +700
Carlos Gonzalez: +750
Corey Seager: +900
I was almost tempted to take Corey Seager just because those odds are so ridiculous. Dude has 17 bombs this year. It’s not like homeboy’s rolling up to the derby with 6 dingers. But this is Big Dick Stanton’s year. You know it, I know it, the oddsmakers know it. He’s been tearing the cover off the ball for the last three weeks. He’s got his swagger back, and the Home Run Derby is just the next object in his way on the Stanton Smash Tour.
Robinson Cano won the derby in 2011, but he’s just as likely to hit one home run in the first round as he is to win the whole thing. Pass. Also, if you pick Mark Trumbo, you’re not wrong. He leads the MLB in homers with 26, but the MLB home run leader never wins the derby. I have no information to back that up with. It just feels that way, so I’m going with it. Either way, Trumbo versus Stanton with a trip to the finals on the line is going to be a BATTLE.
It’s not Coors Field, so money on CarGo is wasted money. I was about to say that Wil Myers is only in this thing because it’s in San Diego, but he’s actually having a sneaky big home run season with 19 to lead the Padres. The Toddfather is back at it again to defend his crown, and he’s in a three-way tie for the third most homers in the MLB. Can’t write off the champ (I did).
I like Adam Duvall as my dark horse to make it to the finals. He’s got 22 homers this year, and nobody really knows who the fuck this guy is because he was a .204 hitter with 8 home runs over the last two years prior to 2016. He’s the perfect candidate to get fed to BDS in the finals. Everyone loves an underdog story. That is, until that underdog get a front row seat to the BDS Show in the finals, and watches Stanton launch 500-foot bombs en route to winning the WWE world heavyweight championship belt.