It Would Seem As Though Michael Felger Is Not A Fan Of My Work
Earlier this week, on the first edition of “It Would Seem As Though (Insert Name Of Media Member) Is Not A Fan Of My Work”, we had the Boston Globe’s Dan Shaugnessy check in to share his thoughts. On this installment, we’ve got a real special guest for you. His name is Michael Felger. He’s a hell of a guy, and a dear friend.
Last night on Comcast, Felger and I were discussing the Red Sox pitching issues, and the subject of Rick Porcello came up. In typical Felger fashion, the sky is falling because Porcello allowed four earned runs to the Royals in five innings of work.
This debate led to Felger going on the Felger and Mazz program on 98.5 The Sports Hub today, and going off about my Porcello take.
Okay, so to answer your question, Felger, Porcello’s ERA for the 2015 season was 4.92. I didn’t answer, because that number is irrelevant to the argument of what Porcello can be moving forward. The Porcello skeptics want to look at Porcello’s career as a whole, and say that there’s a mid-4 ERA here, and a high-4 ERA there, and automatically discredit anything that he’ll be able to do from this point forward because of what he’s done in the past.
I would totally buy into that argument if we were talking about a pitcher in their early-to-mid 30’s. What some people fail to realize (cough, Felger, cough) is that Porcello came into the league when he was 20 years old. His best season came in 2014 when he threw 204.2 innings and had a 3.43 ERA. What the skeptics are not considering is that that was only his age-25 season. The fact that he’s been in the league for so long has blinded some people to the idea that he was still maturing as a big league pitcher when he arrived in Boston.
The Red Sox made the decision to give Porcello a four-year, $82.5 million extension before he had thrown a pitch in Boston. The extension has since been criticized, as Porcello was being paid like he was the ace of the staff, when he’s certainly not an ace. Not only that, but the Red Sox didn’t have an ace in 2015, so I’m sure that Porcello felt like he had to be ace-like due to the contract extension he had just signed. Could the huge contract, the new city, and the new team have contributed to his early struggles in Boston? Possibly. I’m sure they played a factor to a degree, but then there was the injury that landed him on the disabled list last summer. It’s not picking a dividing line to make my argument look better. It’s picking the dividing line from when the player was injured and when the player was healthy.
Since Porcello made his first start since coming off the disabled list on August 26 of last year, he’s made 16 starts and has thrown the second most innings by any starter in the American League (108.2), has the fifth most strikeouts (106), a 3.31 ERA, and a 1.150 WHIP. And not that wins are a great unit of measurement for a pitcher’s performance, but Porcello is tied for the second most wins by any starter in the American League (10) since he came off the disabled list. Second to David Price, actually (12).
And if you want to look at just this year, Felger’s freaking out over one bad start? I mean, I’m not surprised. That’s Felger 101. But Porcello allowed four earned runs in his most recent start, and it was the first time that he’s allowed four earned runs since his first start of the year, and it was also the first time he didn’t go at least six innings for the first time since he came off the disabled list last August. The streak was the longest active streak of throwing at least 6 innings in the MLB.
I think the most impressive stat about Porcello this year, besides his streak of consecutive six-inning starts, would be that he’s held opponents to a .228 batting average as a pitch-to-contact pitcher. That’s the 13th lowest opponents batting average out of 40 qualified starting pitchers in the American League in 2016. In addition to that, only Steven Wright, Masahiro Tanaka, Danny Salazar, Jose Quintana, Drew Smyly and Chris Sale have a lower WHIP in the American League than Porcello in 2016.
Am I saying, “Take it to the bank” that Porcello is a mid-3 ERA guy? I don’t think it’s a guarantee. But I do think that, given all of the evidence here, that there’s reason to believe that he could be in that 3.50-3.70 ERA range. Suck it, Felger.