If You Think The Mets Are Hitting "Too Many" Home Runs, You Are An IDIOT

 

There’s something going on in New York City. Its epidemic. An epidemic of idiocy. Amongst the sports radio callers and Mets Twitter and morons everywhere. The idea that the Mets are hitting “too many” home runs. They’re “too reliant” on the long ball. They’re not “clutch.” This wont hold up in the playoffs. On and on. Let me say this loud and clear – if you think this way, you are an IDIOT

Its like saying Steph Curry hits too many threes. Its like saying Helen Owen is too hot. Its like saying Kevin Clancy is too handsome and too funny. Its just beyond moronic. The fact that anyone out there can think that a baseball team bashing the ball out of the park can be spun into a negative – in any way shape or form – is mind bottling. Its like the old school baseball grumps who said that home runs are a bad thing because they are rally killers. Just unspeakable stupid.

Make no mistake about it – there is no statistical evidence to back this claim up. I know it sounds legitimate in your head to say “well in the playoffs when you’re facing elite pitching, that power isnt going to be there,” but its not. In fact, in some respects its the opposite. From Grantland’s piece about baseball myths:

Teams that are more reliant on the home run, teams who have an average Guillen Number (a stat that measures the percentage of a team’s runs scored via the home run) of 40.1, have their runs per game drop from 5.12 in the regular season to 3.97 in the postseason. That 22.4% decrease is obviously significant and in many cases could be the difference between a win or a loss in a critical October game.

Lindberg’s research goes on to show that teams that are less dependent on the long ball, with an average Guillen Number of 33, have their runs per game drop from 4.93 runs in the regular season to 3.62 in the postseason, a 26.5% decrease, which is surprisingly a significantly bigger drop than the homer dependent teams.

There’s stats backing up the idea that its actually worse for teams that play small ball. Now, obviously thats not discrediting a team like the Royals. We saw first hand that great situational hitting teams can go win themselves a World Series. But the idea that the long ball will disappear in the playoffs and contact hitters can just sit there raking all October long is stupid. If anything it would make sense to me that most playoff teams play great defense, and limiting their ability to make plays in the field by hitting it out of the park would be even more valuable.

If your offense slumps in the playoffs, you’re going to lose. Whether that offense is a slugging home runs or slapping singles. And theres really no evidence to suggest a team of sluggers is more prone to a playoff slump than the contact clubs.

The Mets have scored 56% of their runs via the home run. 77 of 137. And that is awesome. Not only are bashing dongs the fastest way to bust games open and put together win streaks, but it makes watching baseball SO much fun. The Mets are fucking phenomenal to watch right now. Power pitching and power bats. When you watch Noah shove 100 mph down some dude’s throat and the next inning watch Yo smash a ball to the moon, its incredible. When Matz is dealing 95 on the corner and you watch Grandy lead off the game with a homer, its amazing. You reach a point where you expect the Mets to win a lot of ball games now. Even playing from behind or in the late innings, youre always aware of the possibility someone’s going yard. So just ENJOY THAT. Not only is there zero evidence or logic behind the “too many home runs” rhetoric, but you’re also letting a very, very fun season pass you buy while you worry about that. Its dumb baseball narratives at its finest.