Barstool’s Champions League Preview – The “It’s Quarterfinals and We’re Doing Boners” Edition
Sam’s Completely Chumptastic Champions League Preview & Pick’Em
Hi haters,
Unlike this EPL this season, which is off its meds, the Champions League has been going more or less to script – meaning that Spain is dominating, Germany is doing work, England is hanging on by a thread, and Italy is nowhere to be found. The exceptions to this are PSG, which is stacked and has been among the favorites all along, and upstarts Benfica, which aren’t really upstarts at all but rather the obligatory underrated Portuguese club that does damage in the UCL (almost) every year.
Before we start talking X’s and O’s though, let’s get our minds right:
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CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
The field has been whittled down from 78 clubs down to just 8… or, if we’re being brutally honest, the field has been whittled down from 73 pretenders, 4 contenders and Man City down to 4 contenders, 3 pretenders and Man City. (This does a bit of a disservice to Atletico Madrid, but we’ll get to that later.)
As for the four draws for the quarterfinals, here you go:
WAIT, WHAT’S THIS? AN EPL CLUB GOT SHAFTED WHILE REAL MADRID GOT A FAVORABLE DRAW??
Wow, did not see that coming. Must be the first time in history that’s ever happened………… (though to be perfectly honest I’m a bit flabbergasted that City didn’t get drawn against Barrrrrrrrrrrrrrrthelona.)
So for shits and giggles, here’s a quick reminder of how the odds looked for the various contenders, pretenders and Man City back in September:
And here’s how they look today:
A few totally zany observations:
– The odds for the three of the four contenders – Barça, Bayern and Real – are more or less the same now as they were seven months ago. (The fourth contender from the very beginning, according to little old me, has been PSG, which has gone from 14/1 to 6.5/1.)
– Wolfy and Benfica’s odds have come in a bit… but not much considering how far in the competition they’ve progressed at this point (let that be a reminder to anyone thinking about “taking a flyer” on someone next season).
– City’s odds of winning the damn thing are actually LONGER now than they were in September. Same for Atleti. ¯\_(?)_/¯
All this is to say that the bookmakers are not particularly keen on upsets, and for good reason: historical precedent is decidedly on their side. The Champions League is, after all, not for poor people.
As for the schedule for how the next two weeks will play out:
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PICKS OF THE DAY
Barcelona (-190)
Atletico Madrid (+650)
Draw (+325)
Remember when I said that excluding Atleti from the list of legit contenders did them a bit of a disservice? Indeed, and I’m sure there are a bunch of La Liga hardos – who knew that was a thing, right? – but I’m sticking to my guns with the caveat that I will apologize and acknowledge I was wrong if Diego Simeone and company prove me wrong.
Unfortunately there is no chance that happens if only for one reason and one reason only: Barcelona. Atleti can and has beaten Real quite a bit lately. Atleti has had no such success against the Catalans.
All told, Atleti has failed to beat Barça in any of the last 12 STRAIGHT GAMES… including 10 losses and only two draws.
“Yeah but Barça just lost to Real this weekend so they are obviously beatable,” some of you may be thinking.
Don’t. Stop thinking that. Barça had nothing to play for and was coming off an international break where Messi, Neymar and Suarez (among others) had spent more time flying the friendly skies the previous week than anything else.
The game this weekend was an aberration. In fact, strike that. It was not an aberration, it was instead a gift from the soccer gods as a means for convincing dummies that Atleti has a chance so they should put their money on them… thus improving the odds for anybody with a brain.
Lookit, Atletico’s defence is legittttttttttttttttt having given up only 15 goals all season in La Liga, and they should benefit from the return of key guys like Diego Godin, but even if he’s 100% fit (not necessarily true). However, Antoine Griezmann is bound to be tired after carrying around Fernando Torres all season, and Barcelona’s offense is historically scary.
Barça to win 2-0.
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Bayern Munich (-500)
Benfica (+1200)
Draw (+600)
Juventus proved that Bayern is far from invincible, especially given all the injuries ze German giants are carrying at the back (Boateng and Badstuber are out, while Benatia and Martinez are in doubt). Unfortunately for Benfica, they’ve got plenty of fitness concerns of their own and perhaps more importantly, despite being the clear class of the Primeira Liga in Portugal this season, this is not the second coming of 2003-04 Porto. Benfica snuck through their group and then beat an out-of-form Zenit squad in rather unconvincing fashion. They may have shot at shocking the world in the second leg depending on who is and is not available for the two clubs, but today will be all about trying to avoid getting disembowelled in the Allianz.
Bayern to win 2-0.
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Friendly reminder: plenty more Champions League action coming up tomorrow.
Stillllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll:
Holler,
Sam U.L. Army