What's Wrong with Michigan State and Why You Can Worry About West Virginia
Just another day in the college basketball world. A night where the No. 6 and No. 11 teams lose at home to unranked teams and No. 4 Nova escapes Seton Hall with a one-point victory.
This season is absolutely awesome. I want to take a moment to discuss both these teams – Michigan State and West Virginia. Early in the season Michigan State looked the part of a top-3 team in the country. Denzel Valentine was playing like the clear-cut favorite to win National Player of the Year and of course there’s still Tom Izzo.
So, what’s happened? Yes, there have been injuries. Valentine missed a couple games with a knee injury, but he’s back now. Don’t let Michigan State fanbois tell you otherwise that he’s limited. He’s playing the same as he was before. Tum Tum Nairn is missing some time right now with a foot injury. Matt Costello got banged up during the game last night and Gavin Schilling missed the early part of the season with turf toe.
Yes, that sucks, but that’s not the reason why Michigan State looks this bad. They’ve digressed throughout the season, which means Tom Izzo might kill someone during practice. The biggest reason why they are on a 3-game losing streak, including some bad losses, is because teams have caught up to them. The Spartans benefited earlier in the season because of a trip to Europe before the season, giving them an advantage with team chemistry and rhythm. Now that every team has had extra practices during Christmas break and finding rhythm, Michigan State has regressed back to what everyone thought they would be most of the season. This isn’t a top-3/5 team in the country, which is fine this year. They are somewhere around 12-16 in the country, which means they absolutely still have a chance to win the title.
But, for now they need to get healthy and figure out what they want this team to be. On top of that, they need to figure out how to stop a forward that can handle the ball and beat a guy off the dribble. Teams that can spread the floor and go small-ball will absolutely destroy Michigan State right now. Because of this, Michigan State’s KenPom AdjD rating to 51, which hasn’t happened over a full season since 2005-06 per Sam Vecenie.
West Virginia last night confirmed the fear I had about the Mountaineers going forward. This team can’t play a halfcourt game to save their ass. Texas slowed the game down, holding West Virginia to 31 percent shooting from the field. On top of that they shot one of the grossest numbers I’ve ever seen. They shot a putrid 35 percent from the free throw line, going 8-for-23. A top-10 Division I team went 8-for-fucking-23 from the free throw line. That’s gross.
If West Virginia isn’t playing an uptempo game, forcing turnovers they are an average team. If a team can break the original press and then run the offense, working the ball around, not letting West Virginia bump you on ball screens, their defense gives up some easy points. Texas did just that, turning the ball over just 8 times.
This is what happened in the second half against Virginia earlier in the year and last night. West Virginia panics when they have to run set plays offensively. This often leads to contested jumpers from just inside the 3-point line – the worst shot in hoops. There’s a reason West Virginia is ranked 316th in the country in 3-point percentage and 301st in free throw percentage. This team can’t score if it doesn’t get the ball to Devin Williams in the post or on fast breaks.
This is my hesitation with West Virginia going forward in the NCAA Tournament and thinking its ceiling is a Sweet 16 again. Teams need to be able to take advantage of free throw shooting and a half court game come March. Right now, they can’t do either and don’t see that improving as the season goes on. Yes, defense travels, but you need to be able to score in order for that to work.
All-Europe Team
I got asked this question on Twitter by @antwanjamieson who wants to know who are the best players in college this season that won’t make it in the NBA and likely put up 65 points somewhere like China or Europe. Here’s who initially makes my list: Kyle Wiltjer, Yogi Ferrell, Fred VanVleet, Rico Gathers and Isaiah Taylor. The guards have one thing in common that they are typically too small to compete in the NBA and don’t have an elite skill to push them over the edge. Tell me you don’t see Taylor battling Steph Marbury for the scoring title in China. Wiltjer is an interesting prospect because of his ability to stretch the floor and his post moves. However, he’s a complete disaster on the defensive side of the ball and isn’t the quickest guy in the world.
Let me know who you think makes that list @barstoolreags
No real sexy games tonight to breakdown, but the games to watch are: Oregon/USC, Kentucky/Arkansas, Gonzaga/St. Mary’s and Arizona/Stanford.
ICYMI: JJ from Barstool New York sat down with me to talk Drexel basketball and life as a casual hoops fan.