Knee Jerk Reactions to Week 16: Patriots vs Bills

Things to consider while saying this to all who still need to hear it:

--First, we begin with a brief, history lesson. A scary ghost story/ And tales of the glory/ Of Christmases long, long ago. But one that is very much relevant to today. In 1971, Patriots GM Upton Bell - the silly named son of NFL Commissioner Bert Bell who would later go into Boston sports media and try to be one of Bill Belichick's harshest critics - fired head coach John Mazur. Until ownership told him he didn't have the authority to fire anyone. So Bell struck a deal with owner Billy Sullivan. If the Pats lost the final game against the defending Super Bowl champion Colts, who were 14.5 point favorites, Mazur would be gone. In other words, the franchise found themselves in the bizarre situation of an NFL executive openly rooting against his own team in front of the world. What made it even more surreal was when rookies and Stanford teammates Jim Plunkett (the No. 1 overall pick) and Randy Vataha (literally the 418th pick) connected for an 88-yard touchdown to pull out the win. I bring this all up because we've spend the last week up to our Ugly Sweaters in speculation that Jerod Mayo is coaching for his job these last three weeks. And came within a few botched plays of the best win of his coaching career, leaving a fan base unsure how to feel about this one. Other than to remind them what my history sensei Dan Carlin often says, "History doesn't repeat itself. But it rhymes."

--I mean, how do you evaluate this one if you're making a decision about the future of the franchise? On the one hand, the Pats went in as well-prepared as they've been all year. On both sides of the ball, and on special teams. From Antonio Gibson's 42-yard return on the opening kick, to a 6-play, 58-yard opening touchdown drive with zero negative plays, to Demarcus Covington's defense holding the Bills to 11 yards and reminding us that they do, in fact, have a punter on their roster. Then driving the length of the field to make it 14-0. We were all feeling it.

--But they got outscored 24-7 the rest of the way. By doing the very same things that made them a 3-11 team coming in. Mental mistakes. Unforced errors. Handling the ball like it's a burning Yule log. Questionable coaching decisions. And above all, demonstrating that this team simply doesn't know how to win, by failing to execute on those dozen or so plays that decide the outcome of most football games. Which makes this so hard to judge if it was, in fact, a referendum on the head coach. Though in this unscientific, self-selecting survey, the people have spoken:

We're over 2,800 votes and "Mayo should be fired" is sweeping all the battleground states on its way to an Electoral College landslide. Still, it's important not to lose sight of everything he did right in this one.

--Offensively, Alex Van Pelt came at the Bills with Pop Douglas motioning on virtually every play, including an out route to Hunter Henry at the sticks on 3rd & 8 and an outside zone run by Gibson with Douglas motioning off the backside that went for 6 on 1st down. And you have to appreciate the way he let Maye off the leash early on. Already in the edge of field goal range on the opening drive, he went with a Go route to Kayshon Boutte, the boundary X out of a 3x1. This ball was going to Boutte from the presnap. The Bills showed blitz but dropped into underneath zone and rushed four. Gibson picked up an inside rusher. Maye got the ball out too quick for Cameron Lewis to come over from his post safety spot. And delivered the most accurate toss since that guy threw the 9-darter to win the championship:

--On the second possession, Van Pelt mixed it up with power runs by Rhamondre Stevenson. First behind Michael Onwenu and Demontrey Jacobs for 14. Then a gap run behind Layden Robinson for 5. Then a trap play behind pulls by Onwenu and Ben Brown to pick up the 1st down. As the Bills tried to adjust with a loaded box, he countered with a well-designed, perfectly executed screen to Austin Hooper that went for 11, the first of several well-blocked screens on the day. Which was signficant because it's felt like all year their screen game has had all the play design of the opening car race in The Love Bug. (A deep pull, I'll admit. But I listened to Quentin Taratino talk about this personal favorite Disney classic on his podcast. And like him, I owned it on ViewMaster. So I can't get it out of my brain.) And despite some hiccups, particular with Hunter Henry struggling in running game (he whiffed on a pull block for a TFL and got called for holding) Stevenson finished the drive in spectacular fashion. Whether it was by design or not, Jacobs let Dawuane Smoot come unblocked, bounced to the second level and took Baylon Spector out of the play. Stevenson  was through the hole before Smoot could get to him and did the rest on his own:

Buffalo will have to wait for the ground to thaw in the spring before they can dig Lewis out of the hole Stevenson planted him in. Just a great finish to a 16-play, 91-yard drive that devoured nearly 10 minutes of the game clock. The sort of possession that was unthinkable with our last half dozen or so starting quarterbacks. But is our new reality. The one true positive that has come out of a year that otherwise has been as bleak and hopeless as a Dostoyevsky book. 

--In between those drives, Mayo and his staff actually came out with a plan for effectively containing the best offense in the AFC. Marte Mapu hasn't seen the field in weeks, pretty much since Jabrill Peppers came off suspension. And a case can be made this defense is made up of too many hybrid EV-type safety/linebackers with redundant skill sets. But with Peppers out of this one, Mapu got his job back and made the most of it, with 7 tackles and 2 passes defended, and an interception for the game. On Buffalo's first possession, Daniel Ekuale broke through to stop Ray Davis for no gain. Kyle Dugger forced an incompletion in man coverage on Khalil Shakir. And Alex Austin confirmed my belief he should be starting over Marcus Jones by starting over (an injured) Marcus Jones and breaking up a 3rd down pass for Mack Hollins to force a … wait for it … punt. It seemed like anything was possible, and wishes can come true if you just believe in the magic of Christmas.

--That is, until reality struck. And suddenly the talent gap between the two units became apparent. When the Pats went with bigger linebackers, swapping out Christian Elliss for Sione Takitaki, James Cook ran right behind a David Edwards pull/combo block on Jeremiah Pharms and Dion Dawkins blowing Jahlani Tavai out of the hole. O'Cyrus Torrence sealed off Takitaki 5 yards into he secondary. One cut and Cook was Sonic the Hedgehog:

--And it was here that the Ghost of Patriots Past who got showed up in Orchard Park turned back into the Ghost of Patriots Present and started to make a mess of things. Maye missed a wide open Boutte. (Must … resist … making … lazy … "wide open Boutte" reference.) Mayo opted to punt on 4th & 1 from midfield. (More on that in a second.) And worst of all, Mapu took the only present Josh Allen has given the Patriots in years and basically regifted it:

Mapu decision to try and run it out of the end zone just defies explanation. Or description. The best I could come up with is someone showing up to your party, announcing they brought food, then handing it to you and telling you you have to cook it. Even if you wanted to appreciate the gesture, they've just created work for you. Mapu took the one boneheaded play Allen has made against the Pats in recent memory, and turned it into a "punt-pick" on 3rd & 16.  The Bills couldn't have been happier with the result if Mapu had dropped it and they kicked it out of bounds at the 1.

--Now, if this was just a one-off, I'd simply blame it on a role player out of his depth, losing his senses in a big moment, and calling it a coachable moment or something. But it's part of a larger pattern of this team lacking situational awareness. And by default, that blame gets pinned on the head coach. As does TWO more false starts by Jacobs. A time out to avoid a delay of game in the red zone. Another actual delay of game on a 3rd & 1 in which they're motioning Kendrick Bourne in to block while the play clock is ticking down like the bomb in a Mission: Impossible film. The running back's inability to protect the football. As well as Mayo's own indefensible game-management decisions. Because while you have to admire the brass jingle bells it takes to call a fake punt (to get out of the hole Mapu's brain shart dug for them):

… we have to be honest and admit the Bills defended it pretty well. In fact, they should've made the stop. But credit to the special teams again for the push they got up front and to Dell Pettus for keeping his legs churning in the pile. Regardless, that's a hell of a call by Mayo. And the kind of thing you have to try when you're 3-11 if you're every going to beat a Super Bowl contender on the road. Which is exactly how Mayo justified it in the postgame. It was a display of aggressive play-calling we've rarely seen from the normally risk-adverse Mayo. And a sign he was beginning to throw caution to the wind and coach like a man fighting for his professional life. 

--Until he wasn't. Until he went right back to his factory setting of playing everything cautious. Less than two quarters of football later, Mayo was down 10 with 8:33 to go, facing a 4th & 5 at his own 46. Then he chose to boot it away. So which is it? Is he the aggressive Dan Campbell type who'll take crazy risks because he believes in his guys? Or is he the guy who'll stay 1 MPH under the speed limit, keep his hands at the 10 and 2 positions, not pass anyone, not take any chances? Because he can't be both. We're 15 weeks into this grand experiment. It's time Mayo picks an identity for his team and sticks with it. Don't give us "smart, tough and disciplined," because those are just cliches that every team uses. So far his team has been defined mostly by plays like this one:

In fact, if you could reduce this entire season down to one lowlight, it would be these 24 seconds. Jacobs whiffs on the block and ends up on the ground. Gregory Rousseau is on Stevenson practically before the ball is. He can't secure it. The ball spins on its end for a while like the totem in DiCaprio's Inception dream. And four Bills are on it before a single Patriots player arrives at the crime scene. I promise you by lunchtime, this will be given the Curb Your Enthusiasm ending or set to Yakkety Sax. Preserve it. Put it on display in the Hall at Patriots Place for future generations to appreciate how bad these times have been. And pray that we'll remember 2024 less for this and more for being the year we got Drake Maye and Christian Gonzalez became a bona fide star in this league. 

--Speaking of whom, there's a reason you didn't notice Gonzo yesterday. Whether he was in coverage on Keon Coleman or Amari Cooper, the Bills deliberately avoided whichever half of the field he was on:

--I haven't talked enough about Maye, which is obviously out of character for me and this column. So here's some more. First, his consecutive game interception streak was kept alive with the first he's thrown in a while where he was completely at fault. On a 1st down in the red zone, no less. And a ball that he never should've thrown. You either let a rookie go through those mistakes and ride it out, accept them as part of the process with the understanding his learning curve will flatten out over time (see Josh Allen), or you take away the risks that go with his rewards. I for one am grateful Mayo and Van Pelt are taking the first approach. Because this is what we get when they keep letting him grow into the role. Make careful note of the insane blitz pickup by Antonio Gibson, who is fast becoming a key to this entire offense:

--One last highlight. I wish it didn't take them nine plays from goal-to-go situations inside the 10 to punch it in. But it wasn't that long ago (last year, the first six weeks of this season) when throws into the end zone were a thing other teams did, not this one:

--Now in the New Year, how about giving the man more reasons to be proud?

--This Week's Applicable Movie Quote:

Adult Ralphie, narrating: "The old man stood there, quivering with fury, stammering as he tried to come up with a real crusher. All he got out was…"

Old Man Parker: "Naddafinga!"

-A Christmas Story

--I love the Christmas season and would never wish it to be over. But the sooner we do away with that ad where the little girl is inexplicably signing her name in the car dealership, the happier I'll be. WTF is that? Are they suggesting she can take part in the Sign and Drive event? Because the vibe is more like a kitchen the Dateline: NBC camera crew is about to burst into.

--I didn't look up the name of the female official who worked this one. The one who called a DPI in the end zone and then hit Douglas in the face with the flag. I just know she did a hell of a job. And also that she's not related to me, because all the Thornton women spend days as cold as this under blankets with wool socks that say "If you can read this, I'm watching a Hallmark movie" on the bottoms.

--Note to the NFL: Every team should get to veto one alternate uniform choice their opponent might wear. In the Patriots case, I'd eliminate the Bills red jersey. It took until the 2nd quarter for my brain to adjust so I didn't think every Buffalo completion was an interception by someone wearing a Patriots throwback. We don't come to NFL Sundays to have to use our brains.  

--Merry Christmas, Pats fans. Here's the gift we're stuck with in the great NFL Yankee Swap: