This Steelers-Ravens Trend Hits At Over 75% - NFL Week 16 Stats And Trends

Welcome back to the Stats Lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.

Below is my entire cheat sheet I used for Advisors this week. Lines courtesy of the Draftkings Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Wednesday morning). 

LW: 2-2-1

YTD: 42-33-1

Houston Texans (9-5, 6-6-2 ATS) @ Kansas City Chiefs (13-1, 6-8 ATS)

1 PM on NBC

KC -3

T 41.5

The Chiefs have become a big time under team. The under is 22-7 in the Chiefs last 29 home games, and when they’re home on short rest, the under has hit 9 straight times. 

The Stats Say: Under

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4, 10-4 ATS) @ Baltimore Ravens (9-5, 7-6-1 ATS)

4:30 PM Saturday on FOX

BAL -6

T 44.5

I have a very simple rule when these two teams play. Take the points. The underdog is 26-8-3 ATS in the last 37 matchups between these two teams. And Mike Tomlin, always a great bet when getting points, is 26-9-2 ATS as an underdog in divisional matchups.

The Stats Say: Steelers

Philadelphia Eagles (12-2, 9-5 ATS) @ Washington Commanders (9-5, 8-5-1 ATS)

1 PM on FOX

PHI -3.5

T 45.5

Okay bear with me for this one because it's a bit complex. But let's take a home underdog. Who has a winning record. Playing in a divisional matchup. In December. You add all that up and you're probably thinking I'll have some trend to say those teams are a great bet. But the exact opposite is true. They are just 7-17 ATS since 2013, proving they are probably an underdog for a reason. I love the Eagles in this one. 

The Stats Say: Eagles

Minnesota Vikings (12-2, 9-4-1 ATS) @ Seattle Seahawks (8-6, 6-7-1 ATS)

4:05 PM on FOX

MIN -3.5

T 42.5

The Vikings have been a solid road favorite under Kevin O'Connell, going 7-2-3 ATS in that spot. And I said it last week and it proved correct, Geno Smith has been absolutely terrible at home. He's covered just 2 of his last 12 games in Seattle. 

The Stats Say: Vikings

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6, 9-5 ATS) @ Dallas Cowboys (6-8, 5-8-1 ATS)

8:20 PM on NBC

TB -4

T 48

Baker Mayfield has been a road warrior with the Bucs, going 13-3 ATS on the road. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have been pathetic in Jerry's World lately, covering just 1 of their last 9 home games. 

The Stats Say: Bucs

If you missed this week's Advisors, catch up now.