Chris Sale And His Hall Of Fame Case

Before we get too far, I have to acknowledge that I don't have the best Chris Sale track record.

Whoops. I guess I didn't say anything factually wrong but it's not just that I didn't have him winning a Triple Crown on my radar. I didn't think he'd win 10 games in 2024. Also, Vaughn Grissom might actually stink. That might be a topic for another day.

So, where does his fantastic 2024 season leave him from a Hall Of Fame perspective? He's not there yet. Sale currently only has 138 career wins. But I think he's really close.

Sale is currently 49th all-time in strikeouts with 2,414. Say, he can strikeout 200 guys next year (he had 225 last year), he jumps to 28th all-time. If he can get to 3,000 in his career, he joins some pretty great company. Every single pitcher that is eligible with 3,000 strikeouts is in the HOF (except Curt Schilling which is just idiotic that he's not in). C.C. Sabathia is in this group and I think he gets in first ballot in January. To be fair, he also has 113 more wins than Sale does currently.

It's a pretty remarkable comeback for Sale. With the Red Sox, he looked like more of a disaster than Feits' apartment after Frank was done with it. But is he OK? He missed key starts down the stretch for the Braves and wasn't even able to pitch in the playoffs for them. He is still the same guy who went 17-18 with a 4.16 from 2019-23. That's not just a blip. It's five fucking years.

However, he was so good last year, it's impossible to bet against him with any certainty. He's 35. I don't see him getting to 200 wins with any confidence. But can he get to 180? Is that enough in this modern era? You look at someone like David Cone who went 194-126, won a Cy Young Award and won FIVE World Series rings. He got 3.9% of the ballot in his first year and was never considered again.

I do think times have changed though and it's almost like 250 wins is the new 300. Sabathia had 251. He's a lock. So is Justin Verlander (262 and counting). So are Max Scherzer (216), Clayton Kershaw (212) and Zack Grienke (225), who may be retired. He didn't make a formal announcement. He also didn't pitch last year.

You can also make a case for Craig Kimbel and Kenley Jansen. Both have bizarrely similar career stats yet took very different paths to get there. They each have at least 440 saves and a World Series ring but aren't thought of like Dennis Eckersley, Trevor Hoffman or Mariano Rivera. Then again, if Billy Wagner gets in this January (and I think he will), Kimbrel and Jansen have a much better shot.

As for hitters who I think are already in, Mike Trout might be the only person who if they retired today would be a lock. Assuming Aaron Judge plays one game next year and qualifies for the HOF by being active in 10 seasons, then he is in too. After that, it does get a little trickier.

Bryce Harper is clearly close to a lock as well. It's easy to say he's already in but you look at someone like Bernie Williams who had over 600 more hits than Harper with more rings...and he was on the ballot for only 2 years before falling off. But that's extreme and Harper will certainly get in. Let's just get to 2,000 hits before we order the plaque.

Freddie Freeman, Jose Altuve, Manny Machado and Mookie Betts are all in barring disaster too. Honestly, Freeman and Altuve might already be in. If Giancarlo Stanton can get to 500 home runs, he's in too. He's at 429. Considering he can't run or play the field, I'd lean no but then you see his post-season and it's hard to imagine he can't get there. I'd guess 65/35 he gets in?

So, does Chris Sale belong in this list? I think he does. Like most of these guys, he's not there yet. But can he deliver either another top shelf 2024 season? Or even two solid but not great years? Can he get those 600 strikeouts and get to 3,000?

He may not be a Hall of Famer just yet but if he's not eventually in Cooperstown, I'd be stunned.