Kirk Cousins Thrives After Losing: NFL Week 4 Stats And Trends

Welcome back to the Stats Lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.

Below is my entire cheat sheet I used for Advisors this week. Lines courtesy of the Draftkings Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Wednesday morning). 

Last week was a banner week for the stats with a 5-0 record. Let's keep the momentum rolling. 

LW: 5-0

YTD: 10-5

Philadelphia Eagles (2-1, 2-1 ATS) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1, 2-1 ATS)

1 PM on FOX

PHI -2.5

T 45

Unders seems to be hitting a lot this year and these teams are no exception, especially in this spot. The under is 9-1 in the Eagles last 10 road games, and 8-2 in the Bucs last 10 home games. The Eagles offense has also been terrible on the road lately which is a good sign for us, averaging just 18 PPG over their last 9. 

The Stats Say: Under

Minnesota Vikings (3-0, 3-0 ATS) @ Green Bay Packers (2-1, 2-1 ATS)

1 PM on CBS

GB -2.5

T 43.5

3-0 teams that are a road dog in Week 4 (like the Vikings are here) cover just 29% of the time since 2006 (6-15 ATS). (Big Cat didn't throw to me to this stat for the show, so we will only officially count this on my YTD record if it's a win and ignore it if it's a loss). 

The Stats Say: Packers

New Orleans Saints (2-1, 2-1 ATS) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-2, 1-2 ATS)

1 PM on FOX

ATL -1.5

T 42.5

Kirk Cousins has been a great bounce back quarterback. He’s 35-17 ATS following a loss since 2015. The Falcons lost last week. They play this week. 

The Stats Say: Falcons

Kansas City Chiefs (3-0, 2-1 ATS) @ Los Angeles Chargers (2-1, 2-1 ATS)

4:25 PM on CBS

KC -8

T 39

Big underdogs with low game totals are usually a winning recipe. Dogs of more than a touchdown when the game total is under 41 points cover 70% of the time (21-9 ATS) since 2017. And Mahomes is not an automatic cover in this spot at all, he's just 16-21 ATS as a favorite of more than a TD. 

The Stats Say: Chargers

Buffalo Bills (3-0, 2-1 ATS) @ Baltimore Ravens (1-2, 1-2 ATS)

8:20 PM on NBC

BAL -2.5

T 46.5

The under is now 13-4 in the Bills last 17 road games. And we'll go back to the well with the same stat as last week which was a winner. The under has hit in now 23 of the last 34 primetime September games. 

The Stats Say: Under

If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.