Fantasy Football Quarterback Draft Strategy: Everything You've Been Told About Drafting QBs Is Wrong
The expert consensus telling you to militantly wait on drafting a quarterback until the middle rounds used to be the tried and true zag that separates the fake football knowers from the casuals. But the science has changed. For the past few years top-ADP quarterbacks have been smashing yet such experts don't seem to want to actually follow the science. We all know the reasons waiting on quarterback has been a solid choice:
- Most middle round quarterbacks are good enough to get you by
- It's hard to tell which ones will be the best year-over-year
- You could just play the stream game week to week
But is this still true? Let's look into it!
Here's the thing. Things change. Unlike Gabe Davis. I convinced myself Gabe changed for the past two Augusts before getting Lucy with the footballed again and again. Not this year Gabe! You don't have Josh Allen anymore so we are so THROUGH! Never again. No way. No how. I'm over it.
Sorry. We're talking quarterbacks here. Focus. While a lot of the wait on QB theory rung true for years and years, the game continues to evolve. And according to my wins above replacement stat, Josh Allen has been worth a first round pick in fantasy drafts for the past three years.
2023 - Josh Allen overall #4
2022 - Josh Allen overall #10
2021 - Josh Allen overall #7
It's pretty insane how undervalued Josh Allen has been and I've pretty much been the only one to notice. But again, it's not just him. I mapped out a way to visualize how much better these top-3 ADP guys were than everyone else last season. Every week during the season I track how many leagues start every player on a weekly basis as part of calculating WAR. Using this data, we can chart trend lines on how well these top-3 fared vs the rest of each weeks top-12 started QBs.
The graph is pretty simple. All top-12 started QBs are plotted with each week's points as dots with color coding for the top three in ADP (navy blue) vs the rest (gray). The trend lines reveal the difference in point expectation across time. Week 1 and Week 17 were major duds for our top-3 in ADP, but pretty much every other week you could expect to score 3-6 more points vs the other nine most started QBs on a weekly basis. Think about how many games you lost by 6 or less points. You could have taken another couple wins and maybe even snuck in the playoffs had you grabbed one of these QB studs.
Now here's the thing. This analysis is still backward facing and not statistically predictive. I get it. 2023 was 2023. This doesn't mean we'll see the same trends in 2024. Not every stat repeats year-over-year. Except Gabe Davis's. But given the fact that we've seen year-over-year success out of all three of these QBs, there's really no reason not to give any one of them the leap of faith. The combination of elite arm talent and rushing ability seems to make these guys consisten on the fake football field.
So let's talk strategy. There's only three of these guys so you might not be in a good spot to snag one. They are all going in Round 3 of ADP which would return a hell of a lot of value if they are indeed able to repeat 2023's production, but I still wouldn't go as far to take them in Round 2. There are question marks. Allen of course lost Stefon Diggs and some O-linemen, Hurts lost Jason Kelce and gained Saquon Barkley likely to siphon away his goal line touches, and Patrick Mahomes might be getting so bored dominating the hardest position in sports that he's decided to just play football HORSE by himself instead.
Either way, don't be afraid to take one of these three in late Round 3 or early Round 4 if you get lucky for one to fall. Let your friends call you a casual like the good little podcast junkie lemmings they are. But if you're not in a good spot or they go a little early, that's OK too. There is plenty of hype on some other guys. Let's go through a few of my favorites. You'll notice a theme here. They all have wheels.
Jayden Daniels
I think I sent Big Cat a stat that Jayden Daniels had the most fantasy points in college ever for a single season a while back. This kid is going to run, my friends. And the fact that he's been throwing dots in practice and preseason means defenses won't be able to sell out spying him. Washington might not win a ton of games but this kid is going to be one of the funnest players to have on your team by a mile if he is somehow able to stay healthy all season. (Maybe a big if).
Caleb Williams
Hand up. I'm a Bears homer but I think Caleb is set up to have a phenomenal fantasy season. It's not just his weapons at wide receiver and tight end, but it's the fact that the Bears O-line is still quite shaky which will solicit out-of-structure Caleb mode to do his thing with his arm and legs. He's going in Round 10 while Jayden Daniels is going Round 9. *Looks left…looks right… I kinda love the idea of taking both of these guys. Waiting on QB isn't about finding a guy that'll "get you by". It's about taking shots to shoot the moon.
I can't see both of these guys failing in fantasy this year and as the saying goes: "If you have two quarterbacks, you don't have… as much risk of one failing".
Anthony Richardson
My only issue with Richardson is that he's going in Round 5 when you have the rookies mentioned above that are both better passers. But again, I like taking a few shots at QB. Richardson, Daniels and Williams in Round 5, 9 and 10 would be alright by me and could you some trade pieces if at least two of them go nuclear. Especially if your one who always drafts the "up and comer" to bust. Make the fantasy gods strike you three times.
Oh Shit, I totally forgot to draft a QB and now it's Round 10
I get it. Sometimes things happen and you just need that ole reliable to not be a negative. Here are my favorite old reliables:
Tua - Round 10 ADP
Kirk Cousins - Round 13 ADP
Geno Smith - Round 17
So there it is. These are my guys I'd be ready to go to war with. Long story short - don't be afraid to take a top-3 guy in Round 3, but if you miss out or aren't feeling it, diversify your mid-cap running quarterback assets. Don't be afriad to roster two or three for a few weeks to see who pops. What are you gonna do, draft Gabe Davis instead of a backup option in Round 10?
…
Shit.