2024 'Trust The Processed' Wienerlytics: Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Contest Winner Predictions In A Joey Chestnutless World
Major League Eating is literally leaving a large hole to fill as they officially say goodbye to Joey Chestnut. It's an incredible shame. And an incredible opportunity.
I blogged last year with a dark horse pick, James Webb (not the telescope, the human one) as the best bet to make more than you would in a day than your Chase savings account as would have been the case betting Chestnut. My main argument was that we historically see new contestants make their biggest leaps in year two and three. James Webb folowed suit by improving from 41 dogs eaten in 2022 to 47 in 2023. This was still two dogs shy of runner-up Geoffrey Esper for second place - who is now the favorite on Draft Kings (#DKPartner).
Even though the wienerlytics came up a bite short last year it's important to think processed over results. Show you what I mean. Here's an update on a graph I did in that blog to include 2023 data. As you can see from the plumped up lines of major contestants first three years (or two for Webb), the trend is that they continue to improve with Kobayashi (yellow line) being the lone outlier after his insane inaugural 50-dog performance.
Let's focus on Esper (tan) and Webb (navy blue). Esper started off weaker than Webb and both contestants have a similar, if not, exact same slope from year 1 to year 2. Just as predicted. Esper improved again in year three before plateauing. You can also see their 2023 results right next to each other there. If my hotdog theory holds any juice, it seems likely that Webb will make another jump in 2024 while Esper will remain about where he was in this stage of his career. That's wienerlytics baby. #TrustTheProcessed
Let's talk women's dog. We have a similar storyline here with new girl on the block, Mayoi Ebihara. In her first competition last year she burst some dogs on the scene with a runner-up performance to the legendary Miki Sudo. Let's run the same career dogs consumed graph as we did with the bigger names above but just look at the top-billed ladies in 2024:
Again, you see the same upwards trend in the first two to three competitions which leads one to think Mayoi Ebihara is due for an improvement in 2024. The only difference here though is the difference in dogs eaten from Sudo was six vs just two for Webb. That's a big margin. Imagine having six hot dogs in front of you knowing you have to eat them all on top of whatever you already at to get full. That's why the Draft Kings odds are much worse (+500) for Ebihara:
For reference, Miki Sudo improved by four dogs from year 1 to year 2. If Ebihara manages that she'd still be two behind Sudo's 2023 output. So this is a longer shot in my opinion than it is for James Webb. Still, +500 is still too juicy to leave off my betting bun. -900 on Sudo is a casuals womens' dog eating contest play. I'll go with the newcomer.
Let's eat some dogs, America.
My Hot Dog Plate:
Mens: James Webb +175
Womens: Mayoi Ebihara +500