Handicapping the Race to Become Belichick's Successor

There's a lot still to discuss. One simply doesn't just move on from a historic, transformational figure who permanently changed the landscape of an entire six-state region with a snap of the fingers. And it'll be fascinating to see the relationship between Bill Belichick and the Patriots - which began in the Super Bowl year of 1996 - end with a mutual press conference between him and the one man in the NFL who believed in him in 2000, Mr. Kraft, coming up shortly. It promises to be an event never to be forgotten around here. 

Yet while this is a gut-wrenching, emotionally taxing moment, there's still business to attend to. Sentimentality is to be expected at a time like this. But it can't get in the way of the task at hand. You know that part in Lord of the Rings when Gandalf has just fallen to his death in the Mines of Moria and the rest of the Fellowship just barely made it out alive? Aragorn became their new leader. And told the group they had to get up and get out of there immediately. There was no time to mourn because "By nightfall these hills will be swarming with Orcs." Despite the shock and heartache they were suffering, there was still a quest to be fulfilled. And the Patriots have a ring-related quest that is every bit as important as the fate of Middle Earth. The hills are going to be swarming with Orcs from the other 31 NFL teams by nightfall. So we have to get up and keep moving. 

With that, here's a quick guide to the five candidates for HC of the NEPs getting the most mention right now:

Josh McDaniels

There's no question that McDaniels and the Krafts are close. The reasn he left the Colts at the altar four years ago this week is that they offered to pay him way disproportionate to what a coordinator normally makes just to keep him around as the Heir to the Throne. Just in case Belichick decided he preferred to spend his 70s on VIII Rings fishing with Jimmy Johnson, or if he was taken on a UFO by some technologically advanced beings to teach them how to disguise pattern match zone coverage. So if this had all played out in 2021 say, it would be their default setting. He'd be running the show the way a Vice President doesn't technically even need to be sworn in; they just assume the higher office automatically. But a lot has happened since then. Specifically, Las Vegas happened. The ugliness of McDaniels' second departure from his second second job in his second season for the second time means that the Krafts would never put him in charge. Not for one hot second. McDaniels is born to be an OC. 

His chances: 0.0%

Jim Harbaugh

This one is out there. And I have no doubt it's out there because Jim Harbaugh put it there. I get that he's a white hot commodity at the moment. And certain people in management positions around here would love nothing more. I just don't see it. The Krafts have made two coaching hires in 30 years. One was Pete Carroll, whom they had no connection with. It didn't work out. The other was someone Kraft the Elder became close to when he was an assistant here in the mid-90s. That one really super-duper did work out. Familiarity matters in this very much family business they're running. Jim Harbaugh's only connection to the Patriots is his brother gave birth to the whole Deflategate nonsense when his team tipped the Colts off to squishy footballs in the 2014 playoffs. And speaking of "scandals," the last thing the Patriots need is a guy who's been suspended for spying.

His chances: 5%

Brian Flores

This one is particularly interesting since Flores is one of those rare successes off the Belichick coaching tree. At least he was trending that way. It seemed like this one acorn sprouted and was beginning to take root as the Dolphins went 10-6 and then 9-7. The Dolphins appeared to be building toward something in his first head coaching gig, and was universally respected around his organization and the league. Almost. Which is to say, everywhere except in the Miami owners' box. Flores was fired. According to him and his subsequent lawsuit, it was because he refused to tank and noped out of a recruiting meeting with Tom Brady while he was still under contract in New England. That suit, which is also against the NFL, is still being litigated. If there's one quality in Mr. Kraft that I don't care for, it's his loyalty to people who are terrible to him and his team. Most notably, the Commissioner. Flores will get another chance to be head coach in this league. He's earning it Minnesota as we speak. I just doubt it'll be here as long as he's suing Ginger Satan. 

His chances: 10%

Mike Vrabel

Vrabel has been considered a favorite of the Kraft family since long before fans voted him into the team Hall of Fame this summer. It tracks. His emergence on the scene in 2001, going from an afterthought in Dick Lebeau's offense in Pittsburgh to a 3-time champion with impact plays in each of the Super Bowl wins perfectly mirrors the rise of the Dynasty. He's got plenty of experience. He's been successful in his own right. He's not actually a branch off the Belichick tree, so his schemes, methods and interpersonal approach to people will be his own, not just some microwaved leftovers like McDaniels would be. And the timing of him getting fired in Tennessee could not have worked out better. 

His chances: 40%

Jerod Mayo

I'm not going out on much of a limb here, admittedly. At this time last year, Mayo was all set to take interviews for other head coach openings. But the process was short-circuited by RKK, who gave him the same Line-of-Succession treatment McDaniels got, just as the linebackers coach as opposed to a coordinator title. He even took the unheard of step of announcing "negotiations" with Mayo were underway as soon as last season ended. Then in March told NFL.com, "Well, he's definitely a strong candidate to be the heir apparent." Well now the king has been overthrown. Or abdicated. We'll soon see. It might be a year or two sooner than expected, and a gamble given that he's never even been a coordinator. But Mayo is here, he's available, and the job is open. I dread the tabloids running with the "KRAFT MAYO" puns. But this seems like the most likely outcome. 

His chances: 45%

I think that adds up to 100%. I don't know how odds work. And maybe I should've left a percent or two for "Other."  I just rank them according to what my gut tells me.