Zion Williamson Is Running Out Of Time To Get His Shit Together Now That The Final 3 Years Of His $197M Extension Are No Longer Guaranteed

In July 2022, the Pelicans did what pretty much every franchise does when their star player is up for his rookie extension. They maxed him out and didn't think twice about it

It's not like they had a choice even with the injury and weight issues, that's just how things work in the NBA. Teams can't afford to lose their assets for nothing, especially when they have no real way of replacing that talent, so they pay whatever it takes to keep the player. 

What made Zion's contract unique though is there were certain clauses that he had to hit in order to make his money. When this deal was first announced we learned that there was a weight clause in it

According to league sources, Williamson’s contract stipulates that he will have weigh-ins periodically throughout the entirety of his new deal. The sum of his weight and body fat percentage must be below 295. If it is not, the amount of guaranteed money in Williamson’s contract can be reduced.

but as it turns out, that was only the tip of the iceberg. There's also apparently a games played requirement

Suddenly, this extension looks a whole lot different

Now, do I think the Pelicans are about to cut Zion Williamson? Of course not. At the same time, if he keeps trending in the direction we're seeing right now, it's not unthinkable to imagine a world where the Pelicans want to get out of the Zion business. If that's the case, I look at this as something that might make Zion more attractive as a potential trade target. Now, a team can trade for Zion and not be tied to an albatross contract if he continues to not be in shape, get hurt etc. If you need to pull the plug, that's not much easier to do.

Is it crazy to assume that his market might now look a little different if a team knows not only might he be at the lowest value of his career, but now his extension isn't going to weigh down the entire team in the event things don't pan out? Or, is this new reality of the fact that his money isn't guaranteed going to finally be enough to convince Zion to take this shit serisouly and get into shape? As you can see above, every summer the Pelicans will have a decision as to what they want to do. I kind of want to live in a world where they just say fuck it and don't guarantee his deal, and then we get ultimate chaos. Imagine Zion signing a minimum or the MLE to join a contender or something like that? The drama around that would be insanely entertaining.

In reality, I see this more as a trade tool than a world where Zion is about to hit the open market. My guess is we see the Pelicans guarantee things until at least the 2025-26 season, but just keep this in the back of your mind as the year goes on. If we're right back here next season having the exact same discussion around Zion, he's as good as cooked in my opinion.