21 Stats To Explain The Celtics Season At The Quarter Pole Mark

One of the most common phrases you hear in the NBA prior to Christmas is "it's early". Is your favorite team or player struggling? No worries, it's early! Is your favorite team or favorite player on a roll? Take a deep breath, it's early.

While technically true, I don't necessarily agree. I always tend to view the NBA season in chunks, broken down as follows

First 20-21 games: a time to look for trends

Next 20-21 games (midpoint): confirmation of those early season trends ahead of the trade deadline

Next 20-21 games: a team generally is who they're going to be

Final 20-21 games: all that really matters is health for the playoffs

So while it is "early" in the NBA calendar, we've certainly seen enough basketball to start to identify trends. I don't really believe that once you play 20 games you still should ignore what you're watching just because the calendar reads early December. So, given the fact that the Celts have had a billion days off in between games (again), I found myself going down a rabbit hole looking at all types of stats to help explain their first 21 games of the year. Some are great, some not so great. Time will tell which holds up and which matters more as we enter the next chunk, but so far these are things that have stood out most when it comes to telling the story of their season. 

You can form whatever conclusion you'd like with these stats, but this is what the numbers tell us

1. At 16-5, the Celts own the 2nd best record in the NBA. Looking closer, their 10 wins against teams .500 or better is currently the most in the NBA

2. Their a +8.5 point differential as well as their +8.5 net rating are both the best in the NBA. No other team in the league is at least +8.0 in either category

3. The Celtics are the only team in the NBA that currently ranks in the top 6 in offense and defense

4. For all the worry about the bench, the second unit owns the 6th best net rating (+2.4) and the 5th best TS% in the league (59.4%)

5. With a 3-2 record in games decided by 3 points or less and 10-2 in games decided by 10 points or more, those are the most wins in each of any top 5 seed in the East.

6. Of all 30 teams in the NBA, the Celtics .544 SOS is the toughest strength of schedule in the league to date. 

7. The Celtics hold their opponents to just 44.4% on defended FGA. That's good for the 4th lowest in the league

8. At 10-0, the Celtics are the only undefeated team at home in the league. Their 6 road wins are tied for the most of any top 6 seed in the East.

9. There have been 10 games this season where the Celtics have shot under 35% as a team from deep. They are 5-5 in those games. Looking closer, when the Celts shoot under 30% from three, they are 1-4

10. Only the Spurs own a worse 3rd quarter offensive rating than the Celtics. Their 103.6 rating is 29th in the NBA

11. With a Post Up frequency of 6.8%, only the Nuggets, Heat, and Sixers post up more than the Boston Celtics. The Celts rank in the 100th percentile in post ups averaging an insane 1.21 ppp shooting 62.1%.

12. The normal starters have played just 12 games and 202 minutes together. They have a 125.6 Ortg / 98.1 Drtg / +27.5 net rating in those minutes. The Celts are 11-1 in those games.

13. Sam Hauser is shooting 49/47% with a 70% TS% as a reserve, and just 22/17% with a 30% TS% as a starter

14. Derrick White is a +184 on the season, trailing Isaiah Joe's +185 for the top spot in the league

15. Jayson Tatum is shooting just 35% overall on pull ups, including 29.2% on pullup 3PA (5.7 a game). Conversely, he's shooting 46.9% on C&S, and 46.4% on C&S 3PA (2.7)\

16. While better at 2pt pull ups (45.1%), Jaylen Brown has been just as poor when it comes to pullup 3PA at just 30.8%. He's also a 36.1% C&S player from three.

17. 21% of all Jaylen Brown passes have gone to Kristaps Porzingis. 23 of his total 65 assists have gone to Porzingis. The Celtics have a 120 Ortg when these two share the court together

18. Despite their elite defense, the Celtics are 28th in the NBA in opponent TOs at just 12.2 per game. 

19. The Celts are 7-4 in clutch time games, with a 116 Ortg (13th) / 104.7 Drtg (10th) / +11.6 net rating (11th)

20. At just 58.9%, the Celts own just the 24th ranked AST% in the league. They own the 4th highest isolation frequency at 8.4%, ranking in the 69th percentile

21. The Celts have been -4.2 points/100 possessions worse offensively with Jaylen on the floor (31st percentile). On the other end, the Celtics defense has been +7.5 points/100 possessions worse when Jayson Tatum is on the floor (12th percentile).

So if you had to add all this up, what would the trends be? For me, I'd probably go with

- Derrick White has been the most impactful player on the roster

- The bench concerns may maybe overblown now that the shooting has come back 

- It looks as though the Celts are locked in both against good teams AND bad teams so far

- While the offense is more diverse, brutal three point shooting is still the kiss of death

- Clutch time basketball is producing the same as last year

- Porzingis is the missing piece and takes this roster to a level we've never seen before

Of course many of these will fluctuate as the games go by, but if you compare this year's start to last year's 21-5 start, this version feels a little more sustainable given the fact that the Celts are winning these games despite not shooting 95% from three as a team like they did last year. To have this type of success despite having the toughest schedule in the league to start the year should encourage you, but I think we can all agree the real challenge will come when the schedule lightens up. We know this team will show up against good teams, the challenge will be keeping that focus against the bad ones.