If The In Season Tournament Is An Early Season Test Of A Playoff Environment, It's Fair To Say The Celtics Failed It
And just like that, the Celtics will not be traveling to Vegas for a chance to win the first ever NBA Cup. While this was technically a regular season game, I am not someone who tries to frame these IST games as being "the same as any other game", because they aren't. In terms of the record they are, but come on, you watched that shit last night. That was not your normal regular season game. It just wasn't. If you looked at these games as sort of an early season test for how this team looks with some "pressure" thrown in the mix, given what we saw last night I think it's fair to say the Celtics failed that test. It would be foolish to try and pretend like the IST isn't important or that you or the players didn't care about it all because the Celts lost. That's lame as hell. Don't let them off the hook with that shit, they had an opportunity to advance and choked down the stretch. The Pacers outplayed them and earned their right to advance. Simple as that.
But I also think it's important to keep perspective. I don't view how the Celts played down the stretch last night to be a "bigger" issue because it came in the IST compared to say, how they closed the game in the regular season loss to MIN. It's all one in the same for me. The same way I don't put more stock into what they did against CHI than how they closed in the clutch against the fully healthy Heat in their regular season win earlier in the year. If last night has you concerned about how this team is in the clutch, I'd tell you it's not really as bad (or as good) as you might think. It's basically been the same exact thing as last season so far
Obviously not having Porzingis plays a factor in how this team looks in those situations, but let's not pretend like there wasn't more than enough talent available for the Celtics to where you expect them to be able to pull out a game like this. If these games are meant to give you an idea of how you might look in a playoff situation, that doesn't only mean you get to see the good things. You get to learn about your flaws as well, and the version we saw last night is not a version that can win 4 playoff rounds. That doesn't mean that come the Spring this is the version we'll see, but you can't tell me the Celts didn't look like the version we've watched blow countless playoff games before, especially late.
When it came time to win the game, the Celtics best players were outplayed. When it came to guys stepping up and making plays to get their team over the hump down the stretch, the Celtics role players were outplayed. I think the Pacers deserve all the credit in the world for a win like this, nothing we saw was a fluke. This is what they've done all year. Their 134.8 clutch time ORTG is #1 in the NBA, and you saw why last night.
If you're looking for a positive spin to all this, I suppose the one silver lining is the fact that now that the Celts won't be headed to Vegas, the Celts won't have another road game until after the 18th. That's a crazy stretch you don't usually see in the NBA and is probably welcomed after 11 of their first 20 have come on the road.
It's too bad the Celts pooped their pants over the final 2 minutes and we were robbed of a potential BOS/MIL matchup in Vegas, but at the end of the day, they didn't deserve to advance. Hopefully this type of game and performance is a nice reminder of what can happen in a more intense setting against a good team who is motivated to beat you. Execution needs to be flawless down the stretch of those types of games, and that is most certainly not what we got last night.
We have a lot to get to, so let's dive in.
The Good
- For nearly their entire run as a duo, there was usually one thing you could bank on when it came to Tatum and Brown. When they each scored 30, the Celtics win. So you can imagine my surprise to see that in a game both Tatum and Brown scored 30, the Celtics did not win. In fact, it was only the second time in their entire careers this has happened (24-2).
When it came to the stars showing up, I thought Jaylen was ready to go right from the jump. In fact, Jaylen was really the only guy who was making shots to start this game, backpacking the offense for long stretches
Outside of his performance against the Bucks, I would say this was probably Jaylen's second best all around performance of the season. After struggling recently with his efficiency, Jaylen responded with a more than acceptable 14-23 (2-7) and once again it was Jaylen who was hot early (5-7) in the first quarter while the rest of the team struggled to find early offense (5-18, 2-10).
Defensively, Jaylen allowed just 9 total points across all his matchups on 2-7 shooting and was second on the team in total rebounds, so in terms of thriving in his role, I thought Jaylen was more than good enough. Last night the team needed him to get buckets and to defend, not really create for others. That's why the 0 assists doesn't really bother me, not to mention you add in the fact that nobody could really make a shot last night.
The 4pt play against Haliburton in the final minutes was a tough foul, but also a crafty play by Haliburton to jump forward like that into the contest. Jaylen certainly wasn't perfect, a few too many turnovers in that 3rd quarter for my liking, but in a game like this when we all expect the Jays to step up and deliver, I thought Jaylen did his part.
- And honestly, so did Tatum. There's no denying he started slow offensively (1-4), but that didn't really last past the first quarter. You look down and see Tatum had 32/12/6 with only 2 TOs on 13-26 (2-8) and most nights that's more than enough to carry this team over the finish line
I would say the same thing for Tatum as I did about Jaylen. Was this the best we've ever seen Tatum play? I don't think so. Not by his standards.
Was it good enough to win? In my opinion yes. This was not a Tatum no show game like we saw against the Magic. Even if you think part of that total was stat padding once the game was out of reach, I still would disagree. When it came to the 4th quarter and the Celts needed their best player to close and make shots, Tatum finished 5-9. He delivered in those moments exactly how you would expect a #1 guy to play. Most nights, you combine that with Jaylen's 4-6 in the 4th quarter, and that's going to win you a lot of games.
As the two best players it's fair to shoulder them with the responsibility of carrying this team in these moments, but it's important to remember that it's still possible they do that and the Celts still don't win. Of all the problems we saw in this game, I would not put the Jays into that category. They were fine.
- What else is there to say about Sam Hauser? Outside of the Jays, he was the only real other positive to take away from this game. We've reached the point where Sam Hauser needs to be talked about as a legitimate 3+D wing, and nobody should be laughing when they do it
Is it crazy that when I see Hauser launch it from deep that I am just as confident in that shot as I was whenever I would see Ray Allen do it? I know that sounds crazy, but it's the god's honest truth. The confidence I feel with every Hauser shot is something I haven't felt since Ray, and I feel like I'm not alone in that.
The numbers are irrefutable. Hauser had a poor first 3 games of the season from deep (3-15), but since then? Over his last 17 games Hauser is averaging 11.1 points off the bench with 50/48.6% splits with 3.2 3PM a night. That 48.6% is coming off legit volume with 6.5 3PA.
I'm going to ask you to read those numbers again.
This isn't even factoring in the reality that Hauser is legitimately locking people up defensively. He's no longer "holding his own" on that end in my opinion. He's putting opposing players in hell. Did you know Hauser allows just 0.89 points per possession and 40% shooting while defending isolation? That's a pretty big deal for a guy who always seems to get targeted when he's on the floor.
Last night, Hauser was basically the only Celtic who could consistently make an outside shot. He finished 5-7 (71%) from deep, the rest of the team just 7-34 (20.5%). There's your ballgame.
- Shoutout Luke Kornet. That was a dude who was playing for his life and his chance at $500K.
The Bad
- If there's one thing we know about the Pacers, it's that they play fast as shit and they score a ton of points. If you don't bring it defensively, you're dead. So, to see the Celts get progressively worse as the game went on, from 22 points allowed to 26 to 37 to 37 throughout this game is what I would call the opposite of good.
In a game like this, the perimeter defense is crucial, and how the Celts were going to handle Haliburton was going to dictate this game. Remember, this is a player that absolutely torches the Celtics whenever he plays them. As far as I'm concerned Haliburton has moved to the top of the list of current Celtics killers. The man is a machine in these games
You would think that one of the best defensive backcourts would be able to limit him, and it looked like maybe that was going to happen after the first half. The problem of course is Haliburton woke up, and once he was awake he did nothing but cook the best perimeter defenders the Celtics have
This of course is a major issue. Haliburton finished the second half 7-10 (4-7), shaking whoever he wanted whenever he wanted. In the fourth quarter, Haliburton completely controlled everything. When he wasn't scoring, he was finding his teammates (6 AST), when it came to making huge dagger 3s, Haliburton delivered. For as good as a defensive backcourt as Jrue and White have been, they were absolutely cooked in this game.
But that wasn't the whole story when it came to this team's poor defense in the second half. Aaron Nesmith was scoring against Tatum at will in the 4th quarter, which cannot happen. I thought this was one of Al's worst all around performances given that he didn't really make an impact on either end. I'm sorry, but you're not going to win many games on the road against good teams giving up 55/50% splits with 11 3PM in a single half. That's losing basketball.
- I would also say this was probably the worst collective showing of the Celts guard play that we've had all year. One thing that remains true even with this version of the roster is that guard play is still extremely important to their success. Yes, everything starts and stops with the Jays, but what makes this team a contender is the addition of what they get from the guard spot. Last night? It was gross.
Jrue was a team worst -15 in his 38 minutes with his 3-9 (1-5). Not getting anything defensively and then also not getting anything offensively can't really happen. Especially on a night where there's no KP and everyone sort of has to play up a level. The concerning part with Holiday is the fact that he's currently shooting 37% on drives this season. The offense is still nowhere close to what I think anyone expected, even with his reduced role. This is a guy who never shot under 47% and had 2 seasons over 50% as a Buck, yet he's down to just 42% from the floor this season, struggling in basically every zone
With Derrick, this was one of the most uncharacteristic performances of his season. I cannot ever remember a time White finished a game with 5 TOs, in fact, last night was only the 3rd time as a Celtic he's ever done it. Just really poor decisions/passes from a guy who never makes poor decisions/bad passes. Add in that he was also getting cooked by Jrue, and you can see the issue.
Then there was Pritchard, who did nothing with his minutes other than go 0-5 (0-4).
You add all that up an the guard play last night was nowhere close to good enough and one of the main issues of this loss. Getting nothing from all three on either end while also being careless with the basketball is not a winning formula.
- Last night was a perfect example of why those who continue to cry about 3PA volume and demand the Celts take more 2s are completely missing the point.
In this game, the Celts won the rebounding battle 56-41. They dominated in the paint 56-44. They crushed 2nd chance points 20-9. So how the hell did they lose?
Well, a place to start is the 3PT line. As we saw last night, it does not matter if you dominate the glass and feast on 2s if your opponent is going to finish 19-40 from three. You have to stay attached in the 3pt game in 2023, that's just how it goes. The Celts didn't do that, finishing just 12-41 vs the Pacers 19-40.
This isn't a case of "the Celts weren't making 3s so they need to score in other ways to win". The Celts did do that. Again, they won the points in the paint battle 56-44. But when you can't make your 3s and your opponent can't miss, nothing else really matters. It was just like the first 3 games vs MIA in the ECF.
- I'm starting to get very annoyed with what I'm seeing at the FT line from the two best players on the team. In no way shape or form is this in any way acceptable
Tatum missed 3 more FTs in this game, Jaylen was just 1-2. Here's the problem. It's not just that both guys are experiencing a massive drop off in their FT% compared to last year, they're also getting to the line way less as well. Tatum's FTA rate has dropped from 39% to 33%. Jaylen's has dropped from 24% to just 20%.
So, now are they not only getting to the line less, but I can't remember the last time either guy went 2-2 on a trip to the line. Again, these are your two best players. They cannot be this type of liability at the FT line. It's hard to pick which is worse, I mean under 70% for Jaylen is embarrassing, but he's never been a lights out FT shooter. Tatum? To drop from 85% to 79% seems impossible for a player of his caliber. I don't know what the deal is here, but this is completely unacceptable.
The Ugly
- If I had to pick the biggest cause for concern through 20 games, it has to be the 3rd quarter offense. After last night the Celts own the 29th ranked 3rd quarter offense, and once again it was a massive 3rd quarter that ultimately bit them in the ass. You cannot allow shit like this to keep happening
A lot will be made about Joe's rotations in this quarer, but here's the thing. When you look at the most used lineups in the 3rd quarter this season, it's all the good players and only 1 lineup has a positive net rating
The players are simply coming out of the half and can't stop themselves from playing braindead basketball in the 3rd quarter. Think of how things started last night. Up 7 the Celts first play was a low percentage alley oop to Al, followed up by a brutal Derrick White turnover the very next possession.
In the first 4:10 of the quarter, we saw the Celts go 1-4 with 2 TOs, and the next thing you knew Joe was calling timeout with the score down to 63-62. To me, it was the 3rd quarter when this game was truly lost, and this isn't the first time we've seen something like this happen. Until the Celts can figure out how to not be the worst offensive team in the NBA in these 3rd quarters, nothing is going to change.
- It makes no logical sense how the hell Tatum is a -33 in his last 9 games. We've never seen anything like this before at any point of his career. The crazy part is, the bench players he's playing with haven't been terrible! The fact is they are losing the Tatum minutes to start the game, and then when he and Jrue come back in with the bench, they're losing those minutes as well
Last night was really no different. The Celts took their early lead in the minutes Tatum sat, and then they were never really able to push the lead in the Tatum minutes with Haliburton off the floor. That NEVER happens.
- With 1:57 left in this game, the score was tied at 105. The Pacers then closed the game on a 17-7 run. Offensively things were stagnant, and this is even with White handling a lot of the initiating offensively. It was't even that the Celts couldn't score, they finished 3-5 over the final 2 minutes, it was the fact that they couldn't get a late stop to save their lives. The Pacers finished 4-4 over the final 1:57, with 3 of those being 3PM.
It felt like after the 4pt Haliburton play, that was the final death blow. You could tell how deflating it was in that moment, and that's exactly how the Celts played the rest of the 4th. Deflated.
- Finally, there's of course the turnovers. The Celts finished with 17 in this game and we all know that's way too many. On the season the Celts have had 6 games of at least 15+ turnovers, and while they are 4-2 in those games you have to look closer. All the wins were against dogshit teams (WSH/MEM/CHI/PHI) whereas the two losses have come against good teams, both on the road (MIN/IND).
This is the same trend we've seen for years with this era of Celts. If they get careless with the basketball, they lose. When they don't, they win. Pretty simple yet they can't seem to stop turning it over, especially as of late. Since Thanksgiving, the Celts are 26th in the NBA in turnovers per game (16.4), which is always going to bite them in the ass.
You could say the Celts got what they deserved in this game, and I would agree. It wasn't good enough and playing like this won't be good enough come Spring. Luckily, it's December 5th. There's a whole lot of basketball to still be played, and at the end of the day the Celts are 15-5. That's the good news. The bad news is we're still seeing a lot of the same bad habits that ultimately did them in during previous runs. That has to be figured out.