We Started September With A Rough Gambling Day

RECORD

65-105-2 (-0.7 units)

Wake me up when September ends. We started our month on a rough note yesterday. Bryce Harper had been red hot but did not record a hit yesterday. If you don't record a hit, you can't record a home run, so we did not hit with our home run prop. Going up against the New York Yankees at Minute Maid Park, Justin Verlander seemed like a sure thing. Sadly, the Yankees played home run derby against him. I bet on Max Scherzer and the Rangers to cover on the run line. Scherzer was brilliant, but once again, the Rangers bullpen absolutely imploded. With each passing day, that team is trending further and further downward. They simply cannot get out of their own way. So we had our first 0–3 day that we've had all week. It's a rough look. My goal is to finish the regular season in the black. After yesterday, we still have some work to do. It's been a minute since we've hit with one of our home run props. If we do that, we're back in good shape. Let's take a look at today's picks. 

Astros -1.5 (+110) against the Yankees

I'm doubling up here and hoping I don't make the same mistake twice. The Astros got blitzed by the Yankees last night. The Yankees are out of the playoff chase, though they played some better baseball over the last week or so. That can come to an end very quickly. Luis Severino was brilliant in his last outing against my Tigers, but he's been a complete mess this season. I have no idea what the future holds for him. The bullpen may end up being his calling because his stuff still appears to be pretty good. But he has gotten completely rocked when he's taken the mound as a starter.  Until proven otherwise, there's a mountain of evidence that shows that the Yankees crumble like a cookie at Minute Maid Park. Last night was an anomaly. I'm riding with Houston. 

Orioles -1.5 (+120) against the Diamondbacks

I'm a little bit worried about the Orioles. I feel like their divisional leaders should be bigger than it is. It's a young team and I have some concerns about how they're going to play over the last month, but I'm all about value when it comes to gambling, and I really like the value here with Kyle Bradish on the mound for Baltimore. Bradish has been, far and away, the most underrated pitcher in the American League this year. The biggest Achilles' heel of the Baltimore Orioles is their starting pitching, and Bradish has been able to hold down the fort for them very consistently. Arizona is still in the thick of that National League wildcard race, but they have a pitcher going tonight who I've never even heard of. Baltimore's offense is a scrappy bunch. I think they're going to get a few runs on the board early and run away with this one. 

Mark Canha to homer (+750) against the Phillies

It's been a while since we've hit with one of these, which is why I love the data. I try to use it to my advantage whenever I can. Mark Canha has been solid for the Brewers since he got traded by the Mets. I've always liked him, though his power numbers have been down so far in 2023. He's going up against Aaron Nola. Aaron Nola has given up more home runs than any pitcher in baseball this year. Canha's numbers against Nola are pretty darn solid. He's only seen him nine times, but he's got three hits, including one home run. Aaron Nola's been remarkably inconsistent in a contract year this season. It lines up for Canha to take him deep. +750 is great value for a guy with good numbers against Nola and a pitcher who's given up a lot of home runs. 

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