Life's Too Short To Bet The Under: 10 Favorite OVER Player Prop Totals For The 2023 NFL Season
With the NFL season quickly approaching, couldn't help but dig into the player prop market and hammer some Overs. Betting Unders to me gives out weird vibes. I'd rather root for somebody's success and eagerly (helplessly) watch throughout the season as they close in on their bookmaker-tailored milestones.
Didn't know how many I wanted to do. Figured a nice round number of 10 would suffice. Season-long bets are ones I like to invest a little more in. Otherwise it's a pretty anticlimactic wait whether you win or lose. That means picking and choosing spots with care and serious discretion.
So here we are. Ten of my favorite Overs that I've actually thrown down on, as is evident by the betting slips in the TikTok videos below. Ride or fade. Either way, appreciate the hear-out on my rationale.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers — OVER 875.5 Rushing Yards
Strange to me that the line for Christian McCaffrey's O/U rushing yards is actually five yards lower than it was last season. I rode CMC then, and am doing so again this time around. Even if you build in a few games of injury-induced absence, McCaffrey is too special of a talent to disrespect to such a degree.
Kyle Shanahan is in football heaven with McCaffrey in his backfield. The system Shanahan runs is notoriously complex. McCaffrey left the shit sandwich scheme masterminded by Ben McAdoo in Carolina, had to unscramble his brain from that mess, and learn the Niners' playbook on the fly last season. STILL piled up 746 yards on the ground in only 11 games with San Francisco. That was with 52 receptions, by the way.
In what world does CMC take a significant step back with a full offseason to better digest Shanahan's offense? I'm at a loss as to why those who set the lines are doubting McCaffrey again. I have my doubts that Elijah Mitchell will vulture away too many carries.
Darren Waller, TE, New York Giants — OVER 725.5 Receiving Yards
I thought Jalin Hyatt should've been drafted in the first round. The Giants got him in the third. He's blazing fast, but I'm not sold on anyone in particular in New York's receiving corps.
Darren Waller is basically a wide receiver in a tight end's body. He's a better pure athlete than any skill player the G-Men have. Brian Daboll is a very, very smart head coach. His offensive coordinator, Mike Kafka, came up on Andy Reid's staff in Kansas City and saw firsthand what Travis Kelce could do when given ample opportunities.
Sucks that the juice on Waller's total receiving yards was -115 when I got it. Nevertheless, I'm all for it. The coaches aren't dumb enough to not get him triple-digit targets this season. I'm applying similar logic to Waller that I did with McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley in 2022: There's no way he's going to have a third consecutive injury-riddled season.
Waller's stock is low due to how underwhelming the end of his time with the Raiders was. Thought it was a great spot to buy in. Six-foot-six, 245 pounds moving like:
Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts — OVER 2625.5 Passing Yards
Anyone who's followed my stuff on the blog knows I have a major man crush on Anthony Richardson. Potentially losing Jonathan Taylor is a big blow, yet it works in Richardson's favor as far as airing it out more.
Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce provide Richardson with two big-bodied targets on the outside. I also think rookie Josh Downs is going to push Isaiah McKenzie for reps in the slot. That's quite a bit of weaponry there for Richardson, who's also operating a scheme that new coach Shane Steichen will tailor to his dual-threat strengths. Steichen was instrumental in Jalen Hurts' rise to superstardom during his time as the Eagles' offensive coordinator.
Richardson is phenomenal in the pocket. He can extend plays with his insane athleticism. Despite a reputation as a scattershot passer, the Florida product's downfield accuracy and precision on intermediate throws are underrated.
As long as he can clean up some of the short-area stuff, I see no reason why Richardson can't beat an average of 154-ish passing yards per game. Given how Jim Irsay has acted about the Taylor contract situation, I feel like his insistence on Richardson starting will mean the rookie gets the nod over Gardner Minshew for Week 1. You have to figure Indy will be playing from behind often this season, which means more passing and a higher likelihood Richardson eclipses that low-bar total.
Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears — OVER 18.5 Passing TDs
Chief's recent blog caught my eye regarding how bullish bettors are on Justin Fields' MVP odds. More action on Fields for MVP than Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Josh Allen combined. Pretty insane to think about.
That's obviously to do with Fields' odds being a bargain, yet it's also founded in the belief that he'll take a huge leap forward in his second year under OC Luke Getsy. One of the keys I neglected to mention in the above video is how many plays Fields burned by taking 55 sacks last year.
With a firmer grasp of the playbook, better protection and superior pass-catchers flanking him, I believe Fields will be more decisive in his reads and throws. It stands to reason he'll also not take off and run quite as often, if only for self-preservation above all else. Fields just tossed 17 TDs in 15 starts under way more adverse circumstances, so it's not much to ask of him to get only two more. Dan Orlovsky made a hell of a point about the second year for QBs in a Shanahan-style offense, too…
Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers — OVER 775.5 Receiving Yards
No fewer than three fairly significant injuries prevented Deebo Samuel from living up to the new contract he fought for. Deebo has sent Kyle Shanahan many a shirtless picture of his offseason workouts to show him how serious he is about rallying back. Seems prudent to believe a guy when he's pulling stunts like that.
For real though, Deebo had 77 receptions for 1,405 yards in 2021. That guy didn't just disappear. Shanahan is a master at getting his top playmaker the ball. Always has been. Look no further than the innovative choice to use Deebo as a de facto tailback at times.
All indications are Brock Purdy has shaken off his injury scare from the NFC Championship Game and is ready to rock for the season opener. Deebo only needs to average 45.6 yards in 17 games to hit his Over threshold of 776. Doable to say the least for someone who gets 63.3 per outing for his career.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders — OVER 4.5 Receiving TDs
Jahan Dotson had four TD grabs in his first four NFL games and wound up with seven for the 2022 season. That didn't stop Terry McLaurin from clearing 4.5 for the third time in his four-year career.
Can't quite put my finger on it. Call it VIBES. Hashtag analysis. But seriously, I have a funny feeling that Sam Howell is going to really benefit from longtime Chiefs OC Eric Bieniemy dialing up the plays. Assuming Howell is as football-smart as I think he is, he'll be looking to McLaurin often as all his failed Commanders QB predecessors have.
Reality is, hasn't much mattered who's under center for Washington. McLaurin is one of those guys who produces regardless. I anticipate Howell playing better than anyone Scary Terry has worked with to date, which should mean at least five trips to the end zone, if not more. Bieniemy knew how to help design plays to get Travis Kelce wide-open even when defenses knew he was the top guy to key in on. Similar success should be in store for McLaurin.
Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals — OVER 1300.5 Receiving Yards
WHO DEYYYYY. Ja'Marr Chase had 81 catches for 1,455 yards as a rookie. Despite missing five games in '22, he still managed over 1,000 yards on 87 receptions. Another season further along. Even more of an ESP connection with Joe Burrow.
I know 1,300 is a big number. I often seek out totals that are far lower and hunt for value. But somebody's gotta be near the top of the NFL in receiving yards. I see zero reason as to why Chase won't be. He's a threat to score every single time he touches the rock. Until Chase reaches, like, his age-33 season, there's about a 1.5% chance he'll average as low as 12 yards per catch like he did last year.
By the time the 2023 campaign ends, I won't be shocked if Chase is firmly in the debate with Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill as the flat-out best receiver in all of football.
Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars — OVER 950.5 Rushing Yards
Pretty easy to explain this one:
Save for his first year in the NFL, Travis Etienne has a history of durability and high-end production dating back to his heyday at Clemson. I don't see Tank Bigsby pushing for a ton of snaps over a dynamic, three-down back like Etienne. The guy managed over 1,100 yards rushing in '22 behind PFF's second-worst run blocking offensive line. Can't imagine Jacksonville doesn't fare better in the trenches going forward.
Doug Pederson wouldn't throw such an outlandish number out for no reason. Etienne is going to be the Jags' bell cow back. There is no ambiguity about it whatsoever. Say they clinch the AFC South early and Etienne plays in only 16 games. He'd still only 59.4 rushing yards per game he'd need to hit 951.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions — OVER 1000.5 Receiving Yards
One-hundred and ninety-six catches. That's how many balls Amon-Ra St. Brown has hauled in with the Lions. Only two seasons. With rookies Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta feeling their way through the pro game and Jameson Williams suspended for six games, St. Brown should FEAST to start the season.
St. Brown is another guy I rode this past season. I believe his total was only, like, 880.5. The oddsmakers were wise to bump that up. Although he's not a burner like Williams is, St. Brown is a savvy separator and clutch possession receiver who Jared Goff will rely on heavily as Detroit tries to meet expectations as the NFC North's team to beat.
Derek Carr, QB, New Orleans Saints — OVER 3750.5 Passing Yards
Before being shoehorned into Josh McDaniels' unimpeachable system last year, Derek Carr was on a roll. Over the course of his three previous years with the Raiders, Carr completed 68.4% of his passes, averaged 4,320 passing yards per season and posted a 98.4 passer rating. Is that…good…?
Now he's landed in New Orleans. A necessary change of scenery. He'll have a young stud receiver in Chris Olave to throw to, along with two excellent skill players in Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara who have every reason to play their hearts out and rescue themselves from recent declines. It's easy to see how these guys and Carr can all rally around each other and lift the Saints to a division title in the wide-ass-open NFC South.
Carr's comments and gratitude about joining a stable organization from earlier in the offseason were telling. He's never started fewer than 15 games in a single season. I don't see that streak breaking. Carr will make the most of his fresh start and clear 3,750 passing yards with relative ease.
Twitter @MattFitz_gerald/TikTok