Don't Look Now, But My Gambling Picks Have Been Pretty Damn Solid Lately

RECORD

32-53-2 (-5 units)

We went to 2-1 yesterday. I'm not going to lie; it was miraculous. We did not hit with our Trent Grisham home run prop. The Padres teed off on the Rockies, but sadly Grisham did not. I don't regret the pick. There's always good value in the home run props, and the data was solid. It just didn't work out. What did work out was the Miami Marlins, who came back from a five-run deficit to win a wild game in extra innings. Thank you very much, Trea Turner, who made an error on what would've been the final out of the game. The Giants fell behind early against the Arizona Diamondbacks but ended up winning and covering on the run line by a score of 4-2. The overall numbers could be more impressive. No one is going to run to tail my pics when I'm -5 units, but at the same time, the system has been starting to work a little bit. We're up three units in the last week. We haven't had a lot of horrible days. I hope that continues. Let's take a look at today's picks.  

Phillies -1.5 (+135) against the Marlins

It'll be interesting to see how both teams respond following two very hard-fought games. Going with road favorites on the run line is always a bit scary. My first two bets today have glaring similarities, with both games featuring pitchers making their debuts for new teams. In this one is Michael Lorenzen, who just got traded over from my Tigers. He had a terrific run with Detroit, where he pitched some of the best baseball in his career. I like him. He's a durable strike thrower with a good arm. You have Johnny Cueto going for the Marlins. Cuedo has had a fantastic career, and he saw something of a revitalization last season with the White Sox, but having watched his most recent start against the Tigers, I felt his stuff looked flat. I have another bet on this game I'll discuss in a second. I do like the Marlins and think they will make a strong push for the postseason, but I have little faith in Johnny Cueto against this lineup. 

Blue Jays -1.5 (+135) against the Orioles

God, dammit, the Blue Jays always suck me back in. They won last night against the Orioles largely because of a very sloppy inning in which they scored three runs without having any ball leave the infield. They got Kevin Gausman on the mound, and while they are favorites, they're favorites at plus money on the run line. Unlike the Phillies, they're playing at home. Jack Flaherty makes his Orioles debut. I think Flaherty makes the Orioles' rotation slightly better, but he does not move the needle. I was so high on him in 2019, but injuries have derailed what was once a very promising career. He'll give the Orioles innings, which is what they'll need, considering the rotation is full of guys who have already pitched more innings than most people expected, but I don't trust him against a good offense. I swear to God, if the Blue Jays fuck me again, I am permanently out on them. But I do trust Gausman this evening. 

Kyle Schwarber to homer (+290) against the Marlins

I very rarely make two bets on the same game. And when it comes to home run props, I usually look for greater value than +290, but I trust Schwarber here. Schwarber has had a very bizarre season. I may have to write a blog about it at some point. The dude is still mashing, but his low batting average and pitiful defense has him in the negatives regarding wins above replacement. At the same time, he owns Johnny Cueto. Schwarber has only had ten career plate appearances against Cueto but he's hit three home runs. As I said, I think Cueto's stuff could be more sharp. I could see Schwarber putting one in the upper deck at loanDepot Park. 

All odds come from the Barstool Sportsbook. Follow Barstool Baseball on all platforms, including our YouTube page.

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