At The Dawn Of Bengals Training Camp, Here's A (Mostly) Objective Vibe Check Heading Into A Super Bowl Or Bust Season

TELL 'EM, LOU!!!!!!!!!!

Bless the Cardinals for not hiring Anarumo as their head coach.

The vibe check off of Caleb's video with Joe Burrow alone is good enough for me.

First training camp practice is Wednesday at 2:15 p.m. ET. Not that anyone's counting or anything!

This is perhaps the most excited I've ever been personally and/or professionally entering an NFL season. Anyone who follows this league knows by now that being among the preseason favorites to win the Super Bowl means nothing. Look no further than the past two seasons for the Cincinnati Bengals. Perceptions in pro football swing wildly from week to week on most teams, and there are often at least six new playoff teams from the previous year.

On the heels of a shocking run to the Super Bowl, damn near everyone wrote off the Bengals as a fluke. They would suffer an inevitable hangover from losing the Big Game. After a 0-2 start, it appeared those folks were going to be right. Instead, Joe Brrr shook off the rust from a burst appendix in training camp, the coaches adjusted the offensive scheme on the fly to better suit the team's strengths, the defense locked in down the stretch, and Cincinnati rattled off 10 straight wins before falling to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.

So now what? It's 2023. Training camp is here. I don't really know how to feel to be honest. Burrow tends to inspire a quiet confidence in me and many Bengals fans that's hard to explain but delightful to experience. It's more of an intangible quality or "IT" factor you hear about in reference to elite QBs. However, if you're looking for a hard data point, this sums up the Burrow vibe pretty well:

The combined powers of Joey B's quarterbacking prowess and Anarumo's genius on the defensive call sheet make me believe this team can hang with anyone. Beat anyone. Hoist the Lombardi Trophy for the first time in franchise history.

Let's dive a little deeper, though. Going to address myriad topics, storylines and subplots, along with how the Bengals stack up in the loaded AFC against the other contenders' flaws. Fair warning: These sections are pretty wapper-jawed in terms of length. Here's to hoping you can go with the flow and take this ride with me. Final record/season prediction below. ENJOY.

No need to freak out about the contract situations

Could easily read into these comments by Mike Brown as bad vibes — for Tee Higgins in particular. I'm not worried. It'd be one thing if Tee was holding out or not reporting to camp without an extension in place. Although I feel a little less confident in Tee sticking around, the bargain extension linebacker Germaine Pratt took could mean Logan Wilson is a free-agent casualty next offseason as Cincinnati aims to keep its Big Three of Burrow, Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase together.

Burrow and Chase are staying no matter what. The Bengals just spent two draft picks on wideouts in uber-productive Purdue product Charlie Jones and Princeton size-speed decorated heptathlete Andrei Iosivas. Contrary to popular belief, no matter who's around Burrow, he'll make it work. Not a weapons merchant in the slightest. But hey, give him elite skill players and he's only going to cook even more.

Think he realizes that? Hear it from the man himself.

Only a matter of time for Burrow's mega deal now that Justin Herbert is locked in! MORE GOOD VIBES.

Everyone understands the task at hand. Joe Mixon already took a pay cut. This locker room is uniquely close-knit. On the same page. Etcetera.

Bonus good vibes re: Ted Karras, Drue Chrisman — and Paycor Stadium upgrades!

Obviously a center like Ted Karras and a punter in Drue Chrisman won't get as much exposure or be blog-worthy on any sort of regular basis, but wanted to give them a special shoutout here. The nature of the sports media beast is to dwell on negative-skewing off-field stories. Not the case for Karras or Chrisman and their good samaritan/humanitarian efforts.

Will focus on Chrisman for a quick sec because punters are people, too. As you can perhaps deduce, he worked for DoorDash over the summer, gave out food to people in need and streamed a lot of his biking journeys. Check him out on social media. Well worth your time, especially if you pledge allegiance to Who Dey Nation.

Aaaand now for the Paycor Stadium stuff!

The Bengals have the sixth-lowest stadium capacity in the NFL and struggled with turnout basically until Joe Burrow was drafted (weird COVID 2020 doesn't count). They're intent on enhancing the fan experience on game day, which is great. The Jungle is about to be fucking electric. Fans would be going ballistic in '23 regardless. A better fan setup can only aid the home-field advantage.

OK — NOW TO THE FOOTBALL OF IT ALL!

So yeah. Once again, the Bengals are stacked. I have them with the best overall roster in the AFC and third-best across the NFL. I told you this blog would be mostly objective. That wasn't a popular opinion amongst Buffalo Bills fans, let me tell you. I had them seventh and they had a pissy shit fit about it.

Here are the top Super Bowl contenders on Barstool Sportsbook:

For the life of me I can't figure out how or why the Bills are ahead of the Bengals at all the major books. We just beat that ass 27-10 IN BUFFALO. In the playoffs. Without a No. 1 cornerback in Chidobe Awuzie and without not one, not two, but three starting offensive linemen.

BONUS GOOD VIBE: CHIDO IS CLEARRRRRRRREEEEDDD!!!!!

Our CB1. Blown-out ACL last Halloween against the Browns. Cleared for camp. Let's fucking go. Borderline unbelievable recovery. "BUILT DIFFERENT" as the kids say.

More on the AFC: The beasts of the East, the Jags' easy road, and KC as the team to beat

I believe the Bills have the tougher division gauntlet to get through than Cincinnati — or anyone in the conference, for that matter. The Jets have a championship-caliber defense and went from the equivalent of a moped to a Maserati at quarterback. Zach Wilson to Aaron Rodgers, that is. When it comes to the Dolphins, they had one of the top three-ish coordinator hires of the offseason in veteran DC Vic Fangio. Then they added Jalen Ramsey to their defense. Ramsey and Xavien Howard form arguably the best cornerback tandem in football.

Regarding those two ascending AFC East teams, until proven otherwise, the Jets are the Jets (kind of kidding, I think they'll be quite good). And obviously everyone's scared for Fins QB Tua Tagovailoa after multiple concussions last year, including one in Cincinnati. Rodgers probably put it best, and I only know he said this because Rich Eisen raised it:

Moving to the Bengals' own AFC North, I'd be remiss not to point out how the Ravens could've won the division the past two years had Lamar Jackson not gotten injured toward the end of each season. 

Jackson's contract spat is now over. Baltimore has upgraded the weapons around him. The big question is how he'll fare with a new play-caller in Todd Monken. It could either unlock parts of Lamar's game previously unseen, or it could be a big adjustment period. When in doubt, I like teams with schematic continuity. Unless they're quarterbacked by fringe-top-20 QBs like the Steelers' Kenny Pickett or the Browns' first-team All-Pro scumbag Deshaun Watson. 

To be fair, Watson has flashed top-five ability before. Wonder what happened.

Sometimes a shot in the arm in the form of a massively better play-caller can catapult a team up the standings. Look what happened to the Jaguars when Trevor Lawrence got Super Bowl-winning coach Doug Pederson in his corner. A bumpy start in '22 preceded a raging rally to the AFC South crown and a playoff win over the Chargers even after spotting them a 27-0 lead. Jacksonville should cruise to the South title again, and Lawrence should flourish in Year 2 under Pederson with a new WR1 in Calvin Ridley.

Now let's touch on those 27-0 Chargers. LA has a new offensive coordinator for Justin Herbert in Kellen Moore. That's such a galactic upgrade I can't even quantify it. I'm scared of the Bolts' potential as a Bengals stan, but kinda like the Jets are gonna Jet, the Chargers are gonna Charger, only in more heartbreaking fashion. Because they're actually good. Loaded. Great young QB. Head coach Brandon Staley might continue to be their undoing until they fire him. Having such a mismatch against other AFC contenders at such a key spot will come back to bite them (again), I suspect.

Nearly goes without saying that the Chiefs are the team everyone's gunning for. Bullseye on their backs and so on. I contend a full-strength Bengals squad knocks them off more often than not. It's been true so far, at least. In heads-up duels with Patrick Mahomes, Joey B is 3-1.

Orlando Brown Jr. solidified the best o-line of the Burrow era

Beyond returning nine starters on defense (counting CB2 Cam Taylor-Britt), the Bengals have a real left tackle now. They happened to poach him from Kansas City to add to the psychological warfare between the two sides. What a stunning move that I'm still reeling from. I almost can't believe it's real. Cincinnati wisely frontloaded Brown's contract with guarantees with the bigger-picture understanding of the impending Burrow, Chase and Higgins deals.

Realize that this is easily the best protection Burrow will ever have from his blindside and elsewhere. The entire interior core from left to right (Cordell Volson, Ted Karras, Alex Cappa) return, and Jonah Williams will slide over to right tackle. Williams is basically playing for his career as an NFL starter, so I expect him to take the position change in stride. If not, we'll pray that La'el Collins is back healthy. Either way, all due respect to these fellas I'm about to name, they're better than Hakeem Adeniji and Isaiah Prince.

Fearless forecast for the 2023 Cincinnati Bengals

Bad news first, right? Worst-case scenario? It mostly boils down to the AFC North and how good all three of those rivals could be. 

If the Ravens come out firing on all cylinders and the Bengals are slow out of the gates, that could be bad news. Week 1 has been historically unkind to the Browns since their return in 1999 — they've won once, no more than twice if memory serves? — so taking an "L" in Cleveland would make Week 2's home opener against Baltimore a big challenge. Watson could always turn it on again for the Browns. You never know. His level of play is the biggest wild card among all QBs in the sport, in my opinion. Literally no idea what to expect from him.

Then of course, Mike Tomlin still hasn't had a losing record as Steelers coach. They're frisky no matter what. TJ Watt likely won't get injured for a significant stretch like he did in '22. If Pittsburgh's o-line jells early and Pickett takes a meaningful step forward, those two matchups will be even tougher.

…But I think there are far more question marks around the Steelers, Ravens and Browns than the Bengals. Oddsmakers agree.

Pretty confident Cincinnati can win the North for a third straight time. Having the best defensive coordinator among those teams and the best offensive weapons and the best quarterback go a long way.

Considering the Bengals just had two insane years of going to the Super Bowl and getting a couple plays away to back that up, you'd think the Law of Averages would factor in and they'd have little elsewhere to go but backwards. Again, we return to that quiet confidence Joe Burrow inspires in all of us who love this team.

Burrow has said the Super Bowl window is his entire career. 

The widespread perception is that this season is the Bengals' best shot at a championship before they have to pay their superstar QB, Chase, Higgins and whoever else. 

Not only do I agree with Burrow's assertion that the window is his whole career. I'll go further. I think the Bengals have spent so wisely in free agency and drafted so well overall that nothing that happens this season will impact their ability to contend for Bowls throughout Burrow's prime. 

This is a new era of Bengals football where they don't cut every corner. They're open to making upgrades in every which way. They're not rigid to any type of change. They've shown that they can evolve, which is as much a part of their incredible organizational culture shift as anything else Burrow has helped spearhead and deliver on the gridiron itself.

So with all that, here goes…

Last year's prediction: 13-4 record, AFC North title, No. 1 seed

Actual: 12-4 record, AFC North title, No. 3 seed (on a technicality)

2023 prediction: 12-5 record, AFC North title, No. 2 seed

Stay tuned for a blog about full playoff predictions sometime in the next month or so. Who Dey Nation, rise up!!! THE 2023 SEASON IS NIGH.

Twitter @MattFitz_gerald/TikTok