The NBA Finals Have Shifted To South Beach Where The Heat Have A Great Opportunity To Take Another Huge Step Towards A Title

Finally, basketball is back in our lives. What a long 2 days that was amirite? With the Finals shifting down to South Beach for the next two games, absolutely everything is on the table. Would it shock anyone if the Heat won both? If the Nuggets won both? If they split? I don't think so, and for me that's what has made these Finals so awesome to watch thus far. We truly have no idea who is going to win, and that's refreshing. 

When it comes to Game 3s of the NBA Finals, we of course should look at history. When a series is tied 1-1, the team that won Game 3 went on to win the series 32 out of 40 times (80%). Pretty good! Sure there was the 2013 MIA/SA Finals, the 2015 CLE/GS Finals, and the 2022 BOS/GS Finals where the team that won Game 3 did not end up winning the whole thing, but 80% is still 80%. 

For the first time in these Finals, we now get to see how Michael Malone and the Nuggets adjust. 

In Game 2, the Heat had to find a way to get back to what makes them successful, which is slowing things down and causing turnovers. Well, in their big road win the pace went down from 93 to 85. In the fourth quarter where the Heat pulled away, the pace got all the way down to 78. It's still crazy they finished with a 180 Ortg at that pace. Talk about making the most of your possessions, my word.

Defensively, the Heat's adjustment was pretty clear. Their ball pressure was WAY better which is when the Heat are at their best, and their zone was way more effective, especially with how the Heat adjusted to denying Jokic the ball at the nail, and then recovered well by switching

They went from scoring 9 points off TOs in Game 1 to 19 in Game 2. You can go through each of the Heat's wins this postseason and points off TOs are up there as one of the biggest factors. Few teams make you pay when you screw up like the Miami Heat. That's just a fact. In wins, they average 19.7 points off turnovers in these playoffs. Ball security is crucial if the Heat are going to be able to slow the game down and limit possessions. When you waste those possessions by not even getting a shot off, you're cooked.

This is where I'm interested to see how Malone adjusts. The Nuggets have to figure out a way to make sure Jokic gets the ball consistently at the FT line area like they did in Game 1. What makes playing the Heat so tough is once they have you in this defensive vice grip, you start to play dumb basketball. Bad shots, turnovers out of frustration, etc, it's like you're operating in quicksand. Watching on TV you're thinking to yourself just take a deep breath and make the simple passes, but it's as if there's some sort of Jedi mind trick where the team's brains turn into mush. It happened to MIL, it happened to BOS, and it happened to DEN in Game 2.

During the regular season, the Nuggets were 19-22 on the road, which certainly isn't great. In these playoffs, they're 4-3. What's interesting about that is despite the shitty record, the Nuggets have the highest road Ortg in the playoffs (120) and the best road net rating (+3.9). The issue there has been the defense (116 rating). Maybe we'll end up seeing the adjustments aren't so much about their offense, but how they change their defense

So far the Nuggets haven't really taken away the P&R game of MIA, whether that's hitting Bam on the roll or a ball handler making a play. In terms of guarding the 3pt line, and the Nuggets are allowing 15 3PM on 40.5% shooting through 2 games. They've been giving up around 30+ open/wide open looks in each game. I'm sorry, but you aren't beating the Heat if you don't take either of those things away. The shooting is not a fluke at this point. 

There's also a case to be made that the Nuggets haven't even really played that well yet in these Finals, and while that may be true in certain areas, who cares. You only get so many of these games and part of me feels that sort of takes away from what the Heat have been able to do to make this a competitive Finals. I do think it's certainly possible that the Nuggets come out tonight focused and with great energy and blow doors off the Heat. I also think it's possible that the Heat take that punch on the chin and find a way to make this a close game with 5 minutes to go just like they do against every freaking team they play. 

I also think you have to watch how both sides handle the Tony Brothers bullshit, because there will be Tony Brothers bullshit. This can be foul calls, no calls, missed out of bounds plays, missed carries etc. Chances are things will not be consistent. Whoever is able to better keep their mental composure usually finds a way to win. In the ECF Game 3 worked by Tony Brothers the Celts were absolutely not able to keep their mental composure at all when it came to how things were called and the next thing they knew the Heat were raining 3s and they were down by a billion. This shouldn't have to be a factor for either team, but it absolutely will be. 

With how awesome these Finals have been so far, all I'm really hoping for is another competitive game. I don't really care who wins, I just want to watch awesome basketball with huge stakes. I want the stars to show up and do star shit. We haven't really had that huge Playoff Jimmy Butler vs Nikola Jokic heavyweight battle, so I wouldn't be against getting it tonight.