Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald, And Sean McVay May Have Played Their Last Game Together In LA
This picture was from less than 10 months ago. The Rams defeated the Bengals 23-20 in Super Bowl LVI and the model trading away draft picks for higher paid superstars seemed to have been proven. If you recall, the Rams GM Les Snead traded two future 1st round picks, a 3rd round pick, and QB Jared Goff for Matthew Stafford, who then signed a 4-year $160 million dollar extension in 2021. That came two years after they traded two 1st round picks and a 4th round pick for Jalen Ramsey who promptly signed a 5-year $100 million dollar contract after being dealt from the Jaguars to the Rams. But it was all worth it for that Lombardi trophy, right?
A guy with that same namesake, Michael Lombardi is a pretty plugged in guy around the league. He worked in the NFL front offices for over 30 years from a regional scout all the way up to GM. So he knows a lot of people around the league. Coaches, GMs, agents, personnel guys, players, trainers etc. So I don't take this little nugget he dropped on his podcast "The GM Shuffle" with some weight.
"There's probably a good chance, I would say better than 70% that Matt Stafford doesn't play next year. How do I know that? I just that have a sense of that, right? I think he's beaten up, his body is torn down. And I think there is more to life than just coming back. And so if he doesn't come back, then where are the Rams? They don't have any draft picks. They no [draft] capital. You think Aaron Donald wants to play on a team with no Quarterback?" - Mike Lombardi on The GM Shuffle
Stafford has dealt with a bunch of injuries throughout his career and at almost 35 years old, and it would make sense they are starting to take their toll on him. Stafford's injury list looks like this:
2009: Dislocated patella, separated shoulder (missed 6 total games)
2010: Shoulder A/C joint separation, then re-injured his shoulder he just had surgery on in January (missed 13 total games)
2011: Ankle sprain, fractured right index finger (didn't miss any games)
2016: Torn ligaments in his finger (didn't miss any games)
2019: Fractured bones in his back (missed final 8 games of season)
2020: Partial tear in a ligament in his right thumb, rib injury, sprained ankle (didn't miss any games)
2021: Thumb sprain (didn't miss any games), sprained ankle (didn't miss any games), toe injury (didn't miss any games)
2022: Elbow tendinitis, concussion, spinal cord bruise (likely to miss final 8 games of season)
Now the Rams claimed Baker Mayfield off waivers this past week and were the only team to put a claim on him. With Stafford on IR and the backup, John Wolford dealing with an injury, the move made sense. Baker carries a cap hit of $1.35M for the rest of this season and they get to get a look at a former #1 overall pick for the remainder of the season. They can try and spin it like this, that they'll get a compensatory pick if he walks. Maybe. There are a lot of things that could offset that, like bringing in free agents of your own, so them getting a pick is by no means a guarantee.
What this says to me is that combined with this news from Lombardi about Stafford, they are getting a look at a potential long-term replacement. Remember, the Rams don't have any real draft picks that can move the needle much. In fact, this coming off-season they've got:
1 2nd round pick
1 3rd round pick
2 5th round picks
4 6th round picks
2 7th round picks
So while they have 10 total picks, Eight of those are not until Day 3 of the NFL Draft. So if Stafford retires, they don't exactly have a plan B. You might as well call their Plan B "Plan Baker" now because that is exactly the case. Snead and McVay will now get a look at a guy with real NFL traits to see if they want to extend their stay with him if Stafford does indeed retire like Lombardi suggests. It's an escape hatch from going full tank mode with John Wolford or a Day 2 NFL Draft pick starting for a full season for the team.
The good news is the Rams have their 2024 Draft Class for the most part in tact, but will you really borrow from the future again to try to extend this window? Let's look at the other pieces of this puzzle.
There were rumors that Aaron Donald was going to walk away following the Super Bowl win. At 31 years old, the 3x Defensive Player of the Year is already one of the greatest players of all-time. But let's not forget that he ALREADY TRIED TO RETIRE IN MAY.
"And so the agent for the greatest defensive tackle to ever play sent a letter to the only team Donald's played for, the Rams, and informed them of his decision to retire, according to several sources informed of the situation.
The letter, which has been an unreported secret since it was sent, was on Athletes First letterhead and addressed to NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell. Simply, it stated that Donald had informed the Rams he was retiring effective on May 9. It came with instructions to send it in to the league office.
But the letter was never sent to the NFL." - Ian Rapoport of nfl.com
Now instead of retiring, Donald did sign a 3-year deal with the Rams worth up to $95 million dollars. It does have an option after next year, but do you really think that a 32 year old Aaron Donald wants to play on a team that resembles anything like what the Rams trotted out there last night? I get it they won against a hapless Raiders team in exciting fashion, but as a player, it'd be hard to imagine he'd be psyched about putting his body through another year to keep himself at an elite level if that's the talent he's being surrounded with.
And then that brings me to Sean McVay who was being courted by Amazon for their Thursday Night Football color analyst before ultimately going with Kirk Herbstreit. Rumors were swirling the offer was approaching $100 million dollars.
"I think there's also an acknowledgment—this is something that I've talked about the last few months—Sean McVay's future with the team is probably tied to those four guys. In all likelihood, when those guys are gone, McVay is going to be gone, too." - Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated said on The Rich Eisen Show.
The reality is McVay is what every GM wants. A young, passionate, energetic coach who is both smart and connects with his players. He is charismatic and gets the modern NFL. But networks see that too and now that they're handing out bags left and right, why would this guy not be the ideal candidate there too? So if you're Sean McVay and getting courted left and right from either other teams (coaches can be traded) and other networks offering better money and better situations, why would you want to stay in LA with an aging, overpriced core and no immediate hope to turn things around? None of this is for sure happening, but you've got to start to read the tea leaves, and if Stafford really hangs it up, the others may not be far behind.