College Football Betting Strategies (Week 11)

It's that time of week once again. The college football blog that has the internet abuzz. I have 2 hours to make these picks before I have to leave for Philadelphia to go to the Barstool Invitational, so I'm going to get right into it. 

Here are the 5 strategies I am using, and how they have faired so far this season.

Low Team Total Overs: 19-16: $195 (+1.95u)
Giant Money Line Favorites: 31-4, -$6 (-0.06u)
Move The Line Overs:  25-10, -$290 (-2.9u)
1st Quarter Unders: 17-18, -$433 (-4.22u)
Long Shot Parlays: 1-34, -$926 (-9.26u)

Let's see how how much hypothetical money I made last week.

Giant Money Line Favorites: 31-4, -$6 (-0.06u)

Minnesota 20 @ Nebraska 13: Minnesota ML (-670)
Won $15

Michigan State 23 @ Illinois 15: Illinois ML (-1000)
Loss $100

Penn State 45 @ Indiana 14: Penn State ML (-590)
Won $17

Arizona 20 @ Utah 45: Utah ML (-835)
Won $12

California 35 @ USC 41: USC ML (-1667)
Won $6

4-1, -$50 (-0.5u) this week. I really didn't mean to go so Big Ten heavy on this. Picking Illinois to beat Michigan State was never a smart play. Michigan State low key might be getting back on track. They're probably going to reach a bowl game, as they only need 2 more wins and have games against Rutgers and Indiana. I actually bet $286 on Utah ML in real life. Easiest $37 I ever made

Total: 35-5, -$56 (-0.56u)

Move The Line Overs:  25-10, -$290 (-2.9u)

Tennessee 13 @ Georgia 27: Over 58 (-315)
Loss $100

Oregon State 21 @ Washington 24: Over 45 (-335)
PUSH

Florida 41 @ Texas A&M 24: Over 47.5 (-295)
Won $34

Minnesota 20 @ Nebraska 13: Over 37 (-315)
Loss $100

Penn State 45 @ Indiana 14: Over 41.5 (-315)
Won $32

2-2-1, -$134 (-1.34u) this week. Everything about the Tennessee/Georgia game was disappointing. It wasn't entertaining for a second. I was really expecting a shootout there. This strategy might not be salvageable at this point.

Total: 27-12-1, -$424 (-4.24u)

Low Team Total Overs: 19-16: $195 (+1.95u)

Umass 10 @ UConn 27: UMass over 11.5 (-114)
Loss $100

Ohio State 21 @ Northwestern 7: Northwestern over 7.5 (+102)
Loss $100

Michigan State 23 @ Illinois 15: Michigan State over 10.5 (-109)
Won $92

Michigan 52 @ Rutgers 17: Rutgers over 9.5 (-109)
Won $92

Colorado State 16 @ San José State 28: Colorado State over 9.5 (-121)
Won $83

3-2, $67 (+0.67u) this week. Another positive week for the Low Team Total Overs. I didn't realize I was betting on the windiest game of all time in the Ohio State/Northwestern game. I probably should have checked the weather there. I was only 2.5 total points away from going 5-0. 

Total: 22-18, $262 (+2.62u)

1st Quarter Unders: 17-18, -$433 (-4.22u)

Duke 38 @ Boston College 31: 1Q under 10.5 (-152)
1Q Points, 17: Loss $100

UMass 10 @ UConn 27: 1Q under 7.5 (-115)
1Q Points, 10: Loss $100

Iowa 24 @ Purdue 3: 1Q under 7.5 (-124)
1Q Points, 0: Won $81

Kentucky 21 @ Missouri 17: 1Q under 7.5 (-120)
1Q Points, 10: Loss $100

Georgia Tech 28 @ Virginia Tech 27: 1Q under 7.5 (-118)
1Q Points, 10: Loss $100

1-4, -$319 (-3.19u) this week. The 1Q Unders are a sinking ship. I'm not sure if there's anything that can be done at this point to bring them back to life. I'll always have those first couple weeks when I was 9-1.

Total: 18-22, -$752 (-7.52u)

Long Shot Parlays: 1-34, -$926 (-9.26u)

Parlay 1

Kentucky 21 @ Missouri 17: Kentucky ML (-115)
Iowa 24 @ Purdue 3: Purdue ML (-177)
Alabama 31 @ LSU 32 (OT): LSU (+13.5)
Texas Tech 24 @ TCU 34: TCU (-335)
Tennessee 13 @ Georgia 27: Tennessee ML (+225)

Loss $100

Parlay 2

Georgia Tech 28 @ Virginia Tech 27 : Virginia Tech ML (-155)
Baylor 38 @ Oklahoma 35: Oklahoma ML (-167)
Michigan State 23 @ Illinois 15: Michigan State (+17)
Syracuse 9 @ Pittsburgh 19: Pittsburgh ML (-180)
West Virginia 14 @ Iowa State 31: West Virginia (+7)

Loss $100

Parlay 3

Liberty 21 @ Arkansas 19: Liberty (+14.5)
Navy 10 @ Cincinnati 20: Navy (+18.5)
Arizona 20 @ Utah 45: Arizona (+17.5)
Auburn 33 @ Mississippi State 39: Auburn (+12.5)
Florida State 45 @ Miami 3: Miami (+8)

Loss $100

Parlay 4

Wake Forest 21 @ NC State 30: Wake Forest (-4)
UCLA 50 @ Arizona State 36: UCLA (-11)
Hawaii 13 @ Fresno State 55: Hawaii (+27.5)
Texas 34 @ Kansas State 27: Kansas State ML (+117)
Oklahoma State 16 @ Kansas 37: Oklahoma State ML (-108)

Loss $100

Parlay 5

Tennessee 13 @ Georgia 27: Georgia (-8.5)
UMass 10 @ UConn 27: Under 40
Iowa 24 @ Purdue 3: Over 39.5
Maryland 10 @ Wisconsin 23: Maryland ML (+155)
Marshall 12 @ Old Dominion 0: Marshall ML (-152)

Loss $100

0-5, -$500 (-5.0u) this week. Not even close. Nothing remarkable or interesting about any of the parlays. They were just bad

Total 1-39, -$1,426 (-14.26u)

Overall, pretty shitty. But that's alright. I've already looked at the board for this coming week, and I'm feeling much more confident. I have a hard time imagining I don't crush it in Week 10.

Here are the standing headed into this weeks picks

Low Team Total Overs: 22-18, $262 (+2.62u)
Giant Money Line Favorites: 35-5, -$56 (-0.56u)
Move The Line Overs: 27-12-1, -$424 (-4.24u)
1st Quarter Unders: 18-22, -$752 (-7.52u)
Long Shot Parlays: 1-39, -$1,426 (-14.26u)

And here at this weeks guaranteed winners

Giant Money Line Favorites: 35-5, -$56 (-0.56u)

Liberty @ UConn: Liberty ML
$100 to win $15

Rice @ Western Kentucky: Western Kentucky ML
$100 to win $19

Georgia @ Mississippi State: Georgia ML
$100 to win $12

Notre Dame @ Navy: Notre Dame ML
$100 to win $11

SMU @ South Florida: SMU ML
$100 to win $11

Feeling very confident about this $68 here. Don't foresee any losses here. Would be very surprised if I lost one of these bets. Very much expecting to go 5-0.

Move The Line Overs: 27-12-1, -$424 (-4.24u)

Missouri @ Tennessee: Over 48.5
$100 to win $35

UMass @ Arkansas State: Over 41.5
$100 to win $34

Appalachian State @ Marshall: Over 39
$100 to win $32

Nebraska @ Michigan: Over 41
$100 to win $32

California @ Oregon State: Over 41
$100 to win $32

Tennessee has to come back with a strong offensive performance, they could get that number on their own. I know nothing about UMass or Arkansas State. Appalachian State seems like a team that plays high scoring games, but I didn't fact check it. I kind think Nebraska plays Michigan close (I heard Will Compton confidently talk about Nebraska so that's in my head now). The PAC-12 in my mind is an overs league. Should be going 5-0 here as well.

Low Team Total Overs: 22-18, $262 (+2.62u)

Indiana @ Ohio State: Indiana over 7.5
$100 to win $90

Boston College @ NC State: Boston College over 10.5
$100 to win $105

Nebraska @ Michigan: Nebraska over 7.5
$100 to win $97

New Mexico @ Air Force: New Mexico over 6.5
$100 to win $62

Northwestern @ Minnesota: Northwestern over 10.5
$100 to win $95

Funny how there's always so many Big Ten teams in this bet. What a fun conference! The only one of these I don't love is Northwestern over 10.5. It's always fun when can get a team total that's less than a touchdown. Realistically, I will probably go 4-1 here. 

1st Quarter Unders: 18-22, -$752 (-7.52u)

Notre Dame @ Navy: 1Q under 7.5
$100 to win $85

Pittsburgh @ Virginia: 1Q under 7.5
$100 to win $96

Boston College @ NC State: 1Q under 8.5
$100 to win $91

Wisconsin @ Iowa: 1Q under 7.5
$100 to win $61

Wyoming @ Colorado State: 1Q under 9.5
$100 to win $90

Went with the ugliest, lowest totals I could find this week to get us back on track. Excited to watch some terrible football strong defensive perfromances.

Long Shot Parlays: 1-39, -$1,426 (-14.26u)\

Parlay 1 (all 12pm games)

Virginia Tech @ Duke: Virginia Tech (+9.5)
Oklahoma @ West Virginia: Oklahoma (-8)
Missouri @ Tennessee: Over 56.5
Liberty @ UConn: Liberty (-14)
LSU @ Arkansas: LSU ML (-177)

$100 to win $1,978.46

Parlay 2 (all 3:30pm games)

Nebraska @ Michigan: Nebraska (+31)
Maryland @ Penn State: Penn State (+9.5)
Louisville @ Clemson: Clemson (-6.5)
Iowa State @ Oklahoma State: Iowa State ML (-118)
Alabama @ Ole Miss: Over 65

$100 to win 2,074.95

Parlay 3 (all 7/7:30pm games)

Kansas State @ Baylor: Baylor ML (-130)
North Carolina @ Wake Forest: North Carolina ML (+143)
Washington @ Oregon: Washington (+13)
Georgia @ Mississippi State: Georgia (-13.5)
TCU @ Texas: TCU (+7)

$100 to win $2,605.36

Parlay 4 (late night PAC 12)

California @ Oregon State: Over 49
Stanford @ Utah: Utah (-24)
Stanford @ Utah: Over 54
Arizona @ UCLA: UCLA (-20)
Arizona @ UCLA: Under 77

$100 to win $1,952

Parlay 5 (random)

Pittsburgh @ Virginia: Pittsburgh (-5)
Purdue @ Illinois: Purdue (+6.5)
Appalachian State @ Marshall: Appalachian State (-1)
Boston College @ NC State: Under 41
Florida State @ Syracuse: Florida State (-6.5)

$100 to win $2,334.02