Frank The Tank's 2022 NLCS Preview
NLCS
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Padres in Six
The National League playoff bracket has been blown up as there was total upheaval in the Wild Card and Divisional Series. The Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, and New York Mets won a combined 313 games in the regular season but just one in the postseason, leaving the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies to play for a trip to the World Series as the five and six seeds. Like the Atlanta Braves in 2021, both teams have gotten hot at the right time. The Braves took advantage of a terrible Eastern Division and won the World Series despite just 88 wins. The Phillies posted an 87-75 record, upsetting the Cardinals and stunning the Braves to reach the NLCS, while the Padres, after an 89-73 season, beat the Mets and took down the Dodgers, who, at 111-51, had the fourth-best record in MLB history.
The lineup gives the Phillies a slight edge, though the suddenly hot bat of Trent Grisham could be an x-factor as it was against the Mets and Dodgers. Grisham batted .186 in the regular season but has become a postseason terror, batting .381 with three home runs. The Padres have a defense edge with some gold glove caliber players, especially Juan Soto in right field, Manny Machado at third base, and Ha-Seon Kim at short, though the Phillies' often maligned defense has played well in the postseason.
A key to the Phillies' surprise run has been the starting pitching, as Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola have been lights out. Having two strong starters was critical in winning a three-game series and a best-of-five, but the Phillies may need to have a third pitcher step up in a seven-game series. The Padres have also gotten tremendous starting pitching as Yu Darvish, and Joe Musgrove shut down the Mets and Dodgers. Blake Snell gives the Padres a third reliable arm, which the Phillies may lack, as Ranger Suarez struggled in his start against Atlanta, with Noah Syndergaard getting a chance to pitch in the clinching Game 4. Mike Clevinger, who lost to the Dodgers in Game 1, will round out the rotation for San Diego. Overall I like the Padres rotation better than the Phillies as it is deeper, especially with Darvish and Musgrove reaching another level.
One interesting side note, Aaron Nola the likely Game 2 starter for the Phillies could face his brother Austin Nola, the catcher for the Padres. It is the fourth time since 1964 that brothers have met in a postseason series and the first since the 1997 ALCS when Roberto Alomar's Orioles went up against the Cleveland Indians and Sandy Alomar Jr. There were also brother matchups in the World Series from 1920-1923. All the previous postseason sibling battles were all hitters, meaning this will be the first time one brother bats against another in an MLB playoff game.
As with many postseason series in recent years, this one could come down to the bullpens. The bullpen has been an Achilles heel for the Phillies at times this year, as they have struggled to find a reliable closer. Sereanthony Dominguez and Brad Hand have pitched brilliantly for Philadelphia in the postseason, each making three appearances without allowing a run. The Padres' bullpen, meanwhile, has been lights-out. Josh Hader had three saves against the Dodgers, allowing just one hit with seven strikeouts. The Padres' bullpen has allowed one run in the last 20 innings, going back to Game 2 against the Mets in the Wild Card Series, confounding the powerful Dodgers' lineup.
Pitching in October wins, and a good bullpen is critical, both teams are riding hot, but the Padres' bullpen and defense over a seven-game series will prevail and advance in six games.