Tracking College Football Betting Strategies (Week 6)
The wait is over. John Rich's Tracking College Football Betting Strategies is back. Fans of my What if Wolves Conquer New York City blog will certainly love these genuine college football bets that I'm not actually making.
That being said, I look forward to writing this blog every week because gambling is fun, and I work for Penn National Gaming.
For the few of you who haven't been following closely, here is the premise of this blog.
I bet college football in 5 different ways, to see what strategy plays out best. Here are the 5 different strategies I am using
Strategy 1: Giant Money Line Favorite
I pick 5 giant Money Line Favorites, that should be "guaranteed winners" to try and win a small amount of money every week
Strategy 2: Move The Line Overs
I move the line of the over/under total on the Barstool Sportsbook as low as it will allow me, and bet the over
Strategy 3: Low Team Total Overs
I find the worst teams in college football, who are not expected to score many points, and bet their team total over. They're hilariously low sometimes
Strategy 4: 1st Quarter Unders
Betting the under for the 1st Quarter
Strategy 5: Long Shot Parlays
Betting 5-leg long shot parlays. Just need one to hit every few weeks (hasn't hit once yet)
First, we will recap how my bets did last week
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Strategy 1: Giant Money Line Favorite: record going into last week 9-1, $8 (+0.08u)
Alabama @ Arkansas: Alabama (-910)
Won $11
Colorado @ Arizona: Arizona (-1115)
Won $9
Stanford @ Oregon: Oregon (-770)
Won $13
Navy @ Air Force: Air Force (-715)
Won $14
FIU @ New Mexico St: New Mexico St (-670)
Lost $100
4-1, -$53 (-0.53u) last week. I feel dumber and dumber every week when I type this out. Why did I think this would make me money? Sick way to lose put $500 on the line, and best case scenario make barely half my money back. I hate this. Definitely going to scrap this strategy if I do this again next year. Maybe if I go undefeated the rest of the year then I'll be up $20.
TOTAL 13-2, -$45 (-0.45u)
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Strategy 2: Move The Line Overs: record going into last week 9-1, $192, (+1.92u)
Washington @ UCLA: Over 55.5 (-295)
Won $34
Michigan @ Iowa: Over 34.5 (-286)
Won $35
Texas Tech @ Kansas St: Over 48.5 (-315)
Won $32
Texas State @ James Madison: Over 43.5 (-315)
Won $32
Wake Forest @ Florida St: Over 55.5 (-305)
Won $33
5-0, $166, (+1.55u) this week. These bets have been shaping up very nicely. Not a big return on investment for each bet (at all), but they've been hitting comfortably. They're very fun. Like cheering for an over with training wheels on.
TOTAL 14-1, $358 (+3.58u)
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Strategy 3: Low Team Total Overs: record going into last week 5-5, -$37, (-0.37u)
Navy @ Air Force: Navy over 10.5 (-114)
Lost $100
Northwestern @ Penn State: Northwestern over 13.5 (+100)
Lost $100
Georgia @ Missouri: Missouri over 12.5 (-125)
Won $80
Georgia Tech @ Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh over 13.5 (-109)
Won $92
Fresno St @ UCONN: UCONN over 13.5 (-137)
Won $73
3-2, $45, (+0.45u) this week. Not a bad week for shitty teams. Last week was bullshit too. The week before we were getting team totals like UCONN 3.5. Now I have to rely on them to score MORE that 2 TD's? That's a lot to ask. Buy hey, we're back to positive money overall, so no complaints here.
TOTAL 8-7, $8 (+0.08u)
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Strategy 4: 1st Quarter Unders: record going into last week 10-0, $810, (+8.10u)
Illinois @ Wisconsin: 1Q under 9.5 (-109)
Lost $100
Kentucky @ Ole Miss: 1Q under 12.5 (-109)
Lost $100
Michigan @ Iowa: 1Q under 9.5 (-114)
Won $88
West Virginia @ Texas: 1Q under 13.5 (+114)
Lost $100
Oklahoma @ TCU: 1Q under 14.5 (-118)
Lost $100
1-4. -$312, (-3.12u) this week. Welp it was bound to happen eventually. Let's take a moment to appreciate the fact that I went 10-0 on 1st Quarter under for the first 2 weeks of this experiment. That's pretty neat. I'm patting myself on the back as I type. Unfortunately, that was never going to keep up. Oklahoma/TCU scored 37 points in the 1st Quarter… real slap in the face. Maybe I'll get my groove back this week. Still positive overall.
TOTAL 11-4, $498, (+4.98u)
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Strategy 5: Long Shot Parlays: 0-10, -$1000, (-10.0u)
Parlay 1
Washington @ UCLA: Washington ML (-148) - L
Illinois @ Wisconsin: Wisconsin ML (-275) - L
Kentucky @ Ole Miss: Under 54 - W
Kentucky @ Ole Miss: Kentucky (+7) - W
Michigan @ Iowa: Iowa (+10.5) - L
Lost $100
Parlay 2
Navy @ Air Force: Navy (+14) - W
Oklahoma @ TCU: TCU ML (+205) - W
Iowa St @ Kansas: Iowa St ML (-152) - L
Michigan St @ Maryland: Maryland ML (-305) - W
Wake Forest @ Florida State: Wake Forest ML (+205) - W
Lost $100
Parlay 3
Texas A&M @ Mississippi St: Texas A&M ML L
Virginia Tech @ North Carolina: Over 54.5 - L
Cincinnati @ Tulsa: Cincinnati ML (-375) - W
NC State @ Clemson: Clemson ML (-265) - W
West Virginia @ Texas: West Virginia (+9) - L
Lost $100
Parlay 4
LSU @ Auburn: LSU ML (-305) - W
Indiana @ Nebraska: Under 61 - W
NC State @ Clemson: Over 43 - W
Arizona St @ UCS: Arizona St (+24.5) -W
Stanford @ Oregon: Stanford (+17) - L
Lost $100
Parlay 5
Michigan @ Iowa: Michigan ML (-420) - W
Purdue @ Minnesota: Minnesota ML (-480) - L
Alabama @ Arkansas: Alabama (-17.5) - W
Bowling Green @ Akron: Bowling Green ML (-360) - W
Michigan St @ Maryland: Michigan St ML (+235) - L
Lost $100
0-5, -$500, (-5.0u) this week. Sick. This is fun. Parlay 2 and Parlay 4 were close I guess (very close). Unfortunately, we're not playing hand grenades.
TOTAL 0-15, -$1500, (-15.0u)
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So not a great week. The Move The Line overs and the 1st Quarter Unders are the only strategies that have been at all profitable.
Here's the standings heading into this week.
Strategy 4: 1st Quarter Unders: 11-4, $498, (+4.98u)
Strategy 2: Move The Line Overs: 14-1, $358 (+3.58u)
Strategy 3: Low Team Total Overs: 8-7, $8 (+0.08u)
Strategy 1: Giant Money Line Favorites: 13-2, -$45 (-0.45u)
Strategy 5: Long Shot Parlays: 0-15, -$1500, (-15.0u)
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Here are my the picks for this weekend.
Strategy 1: Giant Money Line Favorite: 13-2, -$45 (-0.45u)
Wisconsin @ Northwestern: Wisconsin (-400)
$100 to win $25
Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt: Ole Miss (-835)
$100 to win $12
Washington @ Arizona State: Washington (-590)
$100 to win $17
Army @ Wake Forest: Wake Forest (-770)
$100 to win $13
Missouri @ Florida: Florida (-420)
$100 to win $24
This is the best I've felt about these Giant Money Line Favorites yet. Not just because they are giant favorites, but there's a couple bets with decent returns in there. Wisconsin coming off a loss with a new coach is a lock over mega-trash Northwestern. Missouri won't have 2 good weeks in a row. Washington won't lose 2 games in a row. I might actually make close to $100 hypothetical dollars here.
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Strategy 2: Move The Line Overs: 14-1, $358 (+3.58u)
Clemson @ Boston College: Over 40.5
$100 to win $32
Iowa @ Illinois: Over 29
$100 to win $32
Auburn @ Georgia: Over 41.5
$100 to win $33
Purdue @ Maryland: Over 50.5
$100 to win $33
Missouri @ Florida: Over 45.5
$100 to win $33
We'll see if I can keep the magic going on these. Iowa/Illinois over 29 is too funny to pass up. That game will certainly suck. Georgia's D isn't as good as we thought, I think there will be some points there. Maryland and Clemson overs have been good to me so we'll roll with them. Missouri/Florida - sure why not.
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Strategy 3: Low Team Total Overs: 8-7, $8 (+0.08u)
Liberty @ UMass: UMass over 10.5
$100 to win $110
Hawaii @ San Diego State: Hawaii over 13.5
$100 to win $98
Texas A&M @ Alabama: Texas A&M over 13.5
$100 to win $90
Clemson @ Boston College: Boston College over 13.5
$100 to win $83
Wisconsin @ Northwestern: Northwestern over 16.5
$100 to win $82
These totals aren't even close to low enough for my locking. I miss non-conference play when I could get 5 team totals in single-digits. I can't believe I'm counting on Northwestern of all teams to score more than 2 TD's. That's absurd. Maybe the day's on single-digit team totals are over. Very sad.
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Strategy 4: 1st Quarter Unders: 11-4, $498, (+4.98u)
BYU @ Notre Dame: Under 10.5
$100 to win $81
Iowa @ Illinois: Under 7.5
$100 to win $66
Tulsa @ Navy: Under 9.5
$100 to win $104
Michigan @ Indiana: Under 13.5
$100 to win $96
Arkansas @ Mississippi State: Under 13.5
$100 to win $82
I want to bet the Iowa/Illinois game in every way I possible can. Don't even care if my bets directly contradict each other, the total is too low to not have fun with. I'll never not feel confident about a Military Academy under. Same with Norte Dame (they gross me out, so under).
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Strategy 5: Long Shot Parlays: 0-15, -$1500, (-15.0u)
Parlay 1
Arkansas @ Mississippi State: Arkansas (+9)
Michigan @ Indiana: Indiana (+22.5)
Missouri @ Florida: Missouri (+11)
Oklahoma @ Texas: Oklahoma (+8.5)
Purdue @ Maryland: Purdue ML (+130)
$100 to win $2,960.90
Parlay 2
Oklahoma @ Texas: Oklahoma ML (+240)
Arkansas @ Mississippi State: Arkansas ML (+250)
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State ML (-375)
Wisconsin @ Northwestern: Wisconsin ML (-420)
Florida State @ NC State: NC State ML (-157)
$100 to win $2,973.38
Parlay 3
TCU @ Kansas: TCU (-7)
Tennessee @ LSU: Tennessee (-2.5)
Auburn @ Georgia: Auburn (+30)
North Carolina @ Miami: Miami ML (-186)
BYU @ Notre Dame: Notre Dame ML (-175)
$100 to win $1,568.79
Parlay 4
Texas A&M @ Alabama: Texas A&M (+24.5)
South Carolina @ Kentucky: Kentucky (-6.5)
Kansas State @ Iowa State: Kansas State (-1)
Iowa @ Illinois: Over 36.5
Duke @ Georgia Tech: Duke ML (-175)
$100 to win $1,969.85
Parlay 5
Wisconsin @ Northwestern: Under 44
Tennessee @ LSU: LSU ML (+117)
TCU @ Kansas: Kansas ML (+215)
Oklahoma @ Texas: Texas ML (-315)
Buffalo @ Bowling Green: Bowling Green ML (+104)
$100 to win 3,415.67
Kind of hate every bet on the board this week. I feel like none of these have a chance, so that probably means I'll hit at least 2 of them this week.