Breaking Down The Cubs Trade Bait
We’re in the home stretch of the first half of the 2015 season. We’re 41-35. We dropped 5 in a row last week, but at the same time, we’ve generally exceeded preseason expectations with a young, talented roster. We’re getting #1 production from Jake Arrieta, #2 production from Hammel and a lights out bullpen over the last month. We’re getting MVP quality performances from Rizzo on a daily basis, a potential ROY season from Bryant (I say potential because Joc Pederson has 19 big ones but same time he hit .213 in June = woof city), major comeback seasons from Montero and Coghlan, and unbelievable production from career platoon guys like David Ross and Chris Denorfia. For all intents and purposes, and again… relative to collective expectations… this team is playing very good baseball.
So good, actually, that now the talk of the town centers on trading for pitching depth to help get us to the playoffs for the first time since 2008.
Yeah, Jim. Playoffs.
As these talks heat up… and they will heat up IMMENSELY heading into July… the next big question will focus on what prospects we’re willing to move. So here’s my relatively unqualified opinion on how our trade bait stacks up.
Also, out of respect to Anthony Rizzo, he is omitted from these lists because he is officially the face of the franchise. He’s one of the best players in baseball and the leader of this team. Everything starts and ends with him, and it will likely remain that way for the better part of the next decade.
Players that will get moved only if hell freezes over:
1. Kris Bryant – does this even need to be explained? I would hope not, but then again you guys surprise me on a daily basis with just ridiculous trade propositions, so let’s just make some shit real clear: Kris Bryant is a couple hundred more at-bats away from being one of the best right handed power hitters in baseball. His only real weakness right now is striking out. Okay fine. He’s young. He’s learning how pitchers are trying to attack him. He takes a lot of walks. He’s going to K. But at the end of the day, this guy is as good as advertised and possibly even better. There’s a 0% he gets moved.
2. Addison Russell – Jed publicly stated he’s the Cubs shortstop of the future. Russell has done nothing but prove that, like Bryant, the hype is well deserved. He will be in a Cubs uniform for a long, long time.
Players that could get moved for an elite iconic generational superstar and only an elite iconic generational superstar:
1. Kyle Schwarber – there’s a reason Jason McLeod drafted Schwarber 4th overall. That reason is he is remarkably good at hitting pitched baseballs. What position he plays at this point is relatively unimportant considering we’re not in any rush to have him in the show. But if we learned anything in the week he was up with the big league club, it’s that this monster of man can hang with the big boys. And when you can swing it like him, you can always find a spot on the field for him. If that’s behind the dish, great. If it’s in left field, that’s just fine too. But expect to see him getting reps in left field in AAA Iowa, and then expect to see him on the bench in late August. He’s a future middle of the order bat.
That said, if the White Sox come calling with Chris Sale, you’d probably expect Schwarber to become available and lead a big package of prospects. Sale has a great contract and is flat out electric. But outside of Sale, you’d be hard pressed to find a pitcher worth giving up for Schwarber now that we know what he’s capable of in the big leagues. So no, he won’t get moved for Hamels, especially with David Price being a FA this offseason. Price and Hamels are the next best LHP’s in baseball behind Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw. Why give up a top 15 prospect for Hamels when you can sign Price this offseason? My opinion: much better to be patient and have Schwarber and Price for the long-haul than to have Hamels right now, especially considering the state of this organization (aka inevitable success).
2. Jorge Soler – he’s got too much talent to put on the chopping block. Just wayyyyy too much, and I don’t even think we’re fully aware yet of his potential. He looks like a fucking linebacker out there in right. He has plus power, a plus arm, and a tick above average speed and defense. The biggest drawback now is his ability to hit consistently, which based on his mechanics and plate presence, should drastically get better as he settles in to the show. It also helps that he’s surrounded by young studs, so he won’t have to shoulder nearly as much of the offensive load. Point being – when you can surround a guy with this much talent with quality players like Rizzo, Bryant, Russell, and Schwarber, you’re giving him a great chance to see fastballs in advantage counts. And when you have that much talent, and you’re seeing fastballs in advantage counts, you’re giving that talent he best chance to flourish. It would be like your good looking friend who can’t talk to any girls going out with a bunch of quality wingmen. Sooner or later he’s going to figure out that you don’t need to try so hard, and the success will come.
Players on the trading block:
So with that said, here’s my list of minor league guys that we could see shopped around in July.
1. Baez – he’s not a Theo guy. It’s that simple. Theo likes a very specific type of player. That player is typically patient, polished, and a “gamer” for a lack of better words. Think of the guys he’s brought in since taking over, and find one that is a consistent “swing for the fences” kind of player. That said, Baez is still working to get to that level and was making strides before he got hurt sliding earlier this year.
2. Almora – TOTAL Theo guy. Captain of the national team when he was 16. Unbelievable instincts in center. He’s got at least average MLB tools across the board save for slightly below average power. He can run, hit, throw… all that shit. The problem is he’s not really catching up to the talent in AA yet, which is kind of alarming. He jumps off the page in scouting reports for being a championship caliber player. The kind of guy you routinely find in the Cardinals system. But at this point, we have greater needs and he’s not clearly fitting into the picture now that it starts to take clear shape at the big league level.
3. CJ Edwards – great stuff, great arm, great approach on the mound. But there are durability questions and also some weaknesses with respect to changing speeds. You can’t start in the big leagues unless you can change speeds. That or you’re the Big Unit and you throw fucking GAS from a 7 foot frame. Other than that, you need need NEED to change speeds. So right now it looks like Edwards is a reliever until then. That said, there are organizations out there that are cocky enough to think they can magically turn him into a front line starter, and as such, those organizations would be overvaluing Edwards right now. Overvalued prospects are the definition of trade bait.
4. Billy McKinney – he gets thrown around a lot in trade talks, and I think it’s just because he’s a young hitter that came over as a kind of “throw in” for the Russell for Shark/Hammel deal last year. Still, I think McKinney is at the bottom of a very talented depth chart, and the immense progress of Schwarber coupled with the long term presence of Kris Bryant tells me that left field will not have many openings in the future. Too bad he can’t play center. I don’t think McKinney could lead a package, but you mix him in with one of the guys above and you could be looking at a Scott Kazmir in a Cubs uniform come July.
5. Dan Vogelbach – probably my favorite minor league player of all time because he’s kind of a fat guy named Vogelbach. That and he hits MAMMO bombs. Just huge huge Yabos. But he’s limited defensively to first base, and Anthony Rizzo seems to be holding onto that bitch with a vise grip from now until he retires. Conversely, if there was certainty behind the NL moving to the DH, he’d be worth hanging onto. Those days are probably a long, long way away, so I think he would get moved to an AL team if anything. Damn shame too because Big Daddy Danny has made big strides since getting drafted in 2012. He’s put on muscle, hit for a much higher average than anticipated, and (based purely on his social media presence) seems to be a standup clubhouse guy. His biggest weakness is he plays Anthony Rizzo’s position, which is why I think he’s most certainly available.
Expectations:
I think 2 of the 5 guys above get moved this July for a starting pitcher. I think that starting pitcher is a #2 caliber guy not in the division. I think that Starlin Castro could replace one of those guys in a trade, but highly doubt it because the team is playing so well right now. Then again, Theo is commanding the ship and only he knows where it’s headed. My guess: we say goodbye to a few of the young guys above to give ourselves the absolute best shot at competing in October, we get to October, we win the World Series.
And then we loot.