How to Bet a Trevor Lawrence-less Clemson
I'm sure you're well aware by now that Trevor Lawrence has tested positive for Covid-19 and will be missing this weekend's game vs. Boston College. The outcome of this game is still going to be the same, sorry Boston College fans, let's be honest here. Clemson could just hand off the ball to RBs or say screw it and put their punter at QB for the second time this season and be just fine. What does become more interesting is the spread and total. So how the hell do you approach this game?
Last 5 meetings (Clemson has won the L9)
2019: Clemson won 59-7 @ home (Clem -35, o59)
2018: Clemson won 27-7 @ BC (Clem -17.5, u52)
2017: Clemson won 34-7 @ home (BC +32, u53)
2016: Clemson won 56-10 @ BC (Clem -18, o43)
2015: Clemson won 34-17 @ home (BC +18.5, o38)
Clemson IR
Trevor Lawernce (out) - Duh.
LB James Skalski (out) - tied for first on the team for solo tackles (14) and #3 in total tackles
LB Mike Jones Jr (day to day) - not a star on defense but a solid stable
DT Tyler Davis (day to day, didn't play last week) - starting DT
CB Derion Kendrick (day to day, dressed but didn't play last week) - starting CB
Boston College IR
RB Pat Garwo III (out until end of the season, didn't play last week) - #4 on the team in rushing yards including behind Jurkovec.
The line opened at Clemson -31.5 and is now down to -24, so Trevor Lawrence was priced at worth 7 points. So now we have to look at how much Uiagalelei is worth. Do you weigh stats or experience more? He has gotten into 5 games so far this season for 19 attempts for 102 yards and 32 rushing yards, and was at 63.2% on completions. He got the most playing time in the Citadel game and was at 72.7% and had a long of 38. As a 5 star recruit, in high school during his senior season had 4225 yards, 64.5% completion, averaging 19.0 ypp, 412 rushing yards, and a TD:INT ratio of 48:2. Uiagalelei also did this over the summer:
I think you definitely need to factor in playing time into this. Uiagalelei clearly has all the tools to be a starting quarterback and lead a team like Clemson, but is he ready to do so right now and on this short of a notice? He likely found out Wednesday and since then has had an expedited starting QB crash course. Worst case scenario, I think he'll be shaky out of the gate with getting into the groove of starting the game off and not being able to watch the opposing team for a bit before coming in. But he still has the same offense around him that he's been practicing with for months. Even if he has to hand it off a lot, he will still be more than okay. Also, he is going to grow and learn exponentially during this game, so by the second half he'll likely have hit his stride.
Boston College is off of a 21 point win over Georgia Tech last week so they have a lot of momentum coming into this and want to show they can compete. They're also playing Clemson so they have nothing to lose since no one is expecting a close game. Also remember that last week Clemson slept too much on Syracuse and allowed it to get within 6 in the second half. Dabo likely ripped his team a new one for allowing, a now 1-5, Syracuse to even hold a flame to them outside of the first few minutes. Before the Trevor news I think the team was preparing to come out with another 73-7 outing. This game is at home for Clemson, and even with limited capacity that can help encourage Uiagalelei.
Trends:
BC on as a road underdog is 0-4 ATS, and the under is 6-1.
BC is 0-15 SU on the road vs. a ranked team, is 4-1 for the under, and last didn't cover the last 3.
BC after a win is 1-5 ATS and under is 4-0.
Clemson at home vs. unranked teams are 1-4 ATS, and 22-0 SU.
Clemson at home and favored by 20-24 points is 1-8 ATS.
Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Clemson.
Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Overall: Yes Trevor is a big loss for the team, but Uiagalelei is not that far behind him talent wise, only experience wise. After a sloppy Syracuse game and losing Trevor, Clemson is doing to double down on cleaning up their act and close any gaps they left open last week. This is a high alert time for them and are going to be getting out any final kinks before Notre Dame next week. I think BC will show up and do themselves justice but won't be able to stop much of anything. Maybe they can come out with a bang and get some points up early in the first half, but once Uiagalelei figures himself out, Clemson will be out of reach for BC. Additionally, even with Clemson missing some players on defense, I still think they'll hold BC off the score board, and that Uiagalelei will take a bit to get going so the under is a good play as well. First half bets and live betting is also a good bet for this game, since things will be slow at first.
If you do bet on this game, I don't, please do so responsibly.