Barstool's Weekend Soccer Guide

Sam’s Weekend Soccer Guide

Jesús effing Christo, this international break felt like it was never going to end. Feel like I know exactly how Tom Hanks felt in Cast Away… right down to the part where after years on a metaphorical desert island I am going to show back up at home and Spurs are going to completely break my heart this weekend. Can’t wait!

In reality though the break was jussssssst long enough for me to blow all my hard-earned winnings from the Barça, Spurs and Swansea – Swansea, you beautiful babies! – games on hookers and blow (aka Lagunitas and tacos), so it’s time to get back to that grind.

Lots of soccer on tap, so let’s get to it…

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ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

As discussed, Round 30 of the EPL season was played about a decade ago so let’s take a quick peek at the results that were:

Some of the more notable highlights, lowlights and observations…

– Liverpool hosting United was inarguably the biggest game of the weekend (in England), and provided enough talking points to fill the rest of this column all by itself. Juan Mata, long an afterthought for “genius” Louis Van Gaal, was easily the game’s MVP with two beauties, opening the game with a nicely worked goal and winning it with a fantastic strike.

Identifying the game’s LVP is just as easy:

Somewhat lost in all the snark about Gerrard’s gotardedness was the fact it (a) thoroughly ruined what would have been a potentially amazing 45 minutes of soccer, (b) put a serious dent in Liverpool’s chance of qualifying for next year’s Champions League and, most importantly, (c) saved my bookie from committing seppuku.

– Most of the league’s top clubs – Chelsea, City, Arsenal, Spurs and Southampton – ended up pulling out wins in games they desperately needed and were expected to win… but with the exception of City (which benefited from an early red card to West Brom) all of the others had a MUCH more difficult time than one would have thought. Indeed, this was a perfect example of why EPL defenders argue that the other European leagues don’t match up when it comes to top-to-bottom competition.

– Big road wins by Everton and Crystal Palace mean both clubs are officially well and clear of the relegation zone and can now officially revel in their status as mid-table clubs with absolutely nothing to play for this season.

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TOP/BOTTOM BREAKDOWN

So who DOES have something left to play for this season? Glad you asked. With eight games left in the season (for almost everybody), here’s the definitive list of those with “things” – including both glory and survival – left on the table:

TITLE CONTENDERS: Chelsea, City, Arsenal

CHAMPS LEAGUE HOPEFULS: [Top 3 are locked in] United, Liverpool (barely), Spurs (on life support)

SPURSDAY NIGHT SOCCER: Liverpool, Spurs, Southampton

MIDTABLE MUDDLERS (ie, nothing to play for): Swansea, West Ham, Stoke, Palace, Newcastle, Everton

RELEGATION BATTLERS: West Brom, Hull, Aston Villa, Sunderland, Burnley, QPR, Lester

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Some explanations to head off potential questions and criticisms from you the loyal (and ever-discerning) reader:

You: Do City and/or Arsenal have a legit chance of catching Chelsea?
Sam: No.

You: Why is United not among the title contenders?
Sam: Because they kinda suck (relatively speaking).

You: But, but, but, but why is Southampton not among the Champions League contenders?
Sam: Because they lack the depth of Liverpool and even Spurs, and will likely continue to fade a bit.

You: West Brom is five points ahead of the others, why is it among the relegation contenders?
Sam: Because they may legitimately not get any points from their last five games (Liverpool, @United, @Newcastle, Chelsea, @Arsenal)

[Editor’s note: Arsenal, Aston Villa and Liverpool are still alive in the FA Cup… so they’ve got that… which is nice]

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PICKS OF THE WEEK

This weekend’s schedule looks like this:

I’m not too sure what we did to piss the EPL gods off this weekend but they’ve seen fit to schedule the best game of the round at 7:45am on Saturday morning. Thankfully I’ll be resting up on Friday night for the Wisconsin game so I’ll be up bright and early for it, but I do feel sorry for the rest of you heathens.

Arsenal (-130)
Liverpool (+350)
Draw (+280)

This is one of those games where two teams enter but only one can walk away alive. If Arsenal loses this game they are officially out of the title race, whereas if Liverpool loses they are out of Champions League contention. Important stakes mean important players need to step up. Having said that, let’s take a quick look and see how the Gunners’ best player has been faring lately:

Oh. Yikes. But here’s the upshot: anybody who watched Lexi play for Chile against Brazil in their recent friendly saw a different player than the one who has been sleepwalking through the last couple months of the season. Maybe it was seeing all his South American amigos, or maybe his Chilean side beef made a special visit this past week – I don’t know the details, but Liverpool would be well-advised to be on high alert for Sanchez this weekend.

I’m not good at match, but here’s how I see this one playing out:

Newly resurgent Lexi + almost fully fit Arsenal at the Emirates = L for Liverpool.

Arsenal to win 3-1, book it.

Okay, fine, a little something for the picture readers in our midst:

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Prognosticating teams’ performances coming off the international break can be a little tricky given the weeks in between games during which hot teams can cool and cold teams can find a spark, but scared money don’t make money so here are a few more picks for you:

Lester City (+130)
West Ham (+210)
Draw (+240)

This is the time in the season when motivation plays a biggggg role in the outcome of games, with no better exemplar than this puppy. Lester is at home and desperate for points, whereas West Ham is a bit content with what has by all accounts been a fine season. Lester to win 3-2.

Sunderland (+145)
Newcastle (+200)
Draw (+220)

Speaking of motivation, Newcastle is comfortably in the mid-table and Sunderland are trying to claw their way clear of the drop zone… buttttttttt then there’s a little wild card in the mix called the Tyne-Wear dærby. I’ve gone back and forth on this one but can’t help thinking that Newcastle, who looked damn good against Arsenal last round and has lost an unconscionable four straight to Sunderland, is going to be well up for this one. Sunderland on the other hand looked listless against West Ham, likely struggling under the massive weight of new manager Dick Advocaat’s gigantic head.

I’m torn between a win for the Magpies and a draw, but since I’m an American and therefore genetically indoctrinated to hate ties, I’m going [**UPSET SPECIAL**] 2-1 win for Newcastle.

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REST OF EUROPE

Sorry, no exotic smokes this week because Big Cat is all over my ass to get this done so he could get on the road (so direct complaints thusly). But here are the best of the rest of the European leagues…

Serie A: 5th-place Napoli visit 2nd-place Roma (Saturday at 6:30am ET on beIN) in what should be one hell of a game, but anybody thinking the Romans have any chance of catching Juventus at this point are fooling themselves. My advice: DVR this bad boy.

La Liga: No great games on TV this weekend in Spain, but best of the bunch (I guess) is 1st-place Barcelona at 10th-place Celta Vigo (Sunday at 3pm ET on beIN). Hopefully Messi will be back from injury in time.

Bundesliga: Finally a good game at a decent time! League leaders Bayern travel to 10th-place (but always dangerous) Dortmund in a game that never disappoints to deliver the goods… for both of you reading this with GolTV (Saturday at 12:30pm).

Ligue 1: France is the only league where the championship race may actually come down to the wire, and this weekend’s game with 3rd-place Marseille (57 points) hosting 1st-place PSG (59 points) is HUGE for both clubs, not to mention for 2nd-place Lyon (58 points). Game is on beIN Sports on Sunday at 2pm ET. You should definitely probably watch.

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MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER

Interesting start to the season with some clubs with high expectations (ahem, yeah you Toronto and Seattle) coming out flat, whereas the NY Red Bulls and FC Dallas sitting atop the East and West at the moment will come as a surprise to many. Still early though and plenty of times for things – ie, everything – to change.

Game of the week is probably on Sunday with San Jose versus Real Salt Lake (ESPN2 at 5pm ET), which should be a good matchup of two of the more prolific offensive teams of the young season.

Also, shout out to the Chicago Fire who brought home their first win of the season against the hapless Philadelphia Union last week, and now come up against the star-studded Toronto FC squad led by Jozy Altidore, Michael Bradley and Sebastian Giovinco (Saturday at 3pm ET on CSN-Chicago).

And speaking of Altidore, I know that 99.9999% of April Fools jokes are lame as shit, but Mike Magee’s tweet this week making light of Altidore’s red card (for which he changed his twitter page and everything) was A+ work.

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Aight, it’s Friday and the weather gods have blessed us with a beautiful day so why the hell are you wasting it reading drivel from me? (Just kidding, I love each and every one of you that made it this far dearly.) ‘Til next week, I bid you adieu…

Note: if you ever are DYING to read words about soccer but don’t want to dig through the posts on the BSS website, the link to my latest post can always be found on my twitter homepage (just an FYI)
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