Let's Get Rich: Handicapping The 2019 MLB Home Run Derby
So tonight the ONLY thing on in the sports world is the Home Run Derby. No summer league, NHL playoffs, no baseball, football, nothing. It sucks, but the derby is decent enough entertainment for a Monday not and since we’re all a bunch of degenerates we’re going to gamble our faces on it.
Oh, and it’s for a $1,000,000 prize. Some of these guys like Vlad Jr. and Pete Alonso are making about 1/2 that amount total this year. The stakes are actually pretty wild
*cues up a bunch of assholes who say the money should go to charity or some shit*
But anyways, let’s break it down
Bracket style format with the timer. I LOVE the timer as the derby got a little stale with the 10 outs thing they got rid of last year or whatever. These guys are swinging hard and swinging a LOT because they’re trying to beat the clock. Because of that, the very first thing I do when handicapping the derby is picking out the fats. Swinging a bat that hard at that high of a tempo gets REALLY tiring. So guess what?
Vlad? You’re dead.
Joc? You have a fat face and swing out of your shoes. You’re dead.
These two very well could advance in round 1 and put up big numbers but come championship round they’ll be tired af and fizzle out.
Boom. We just eliminated 25% of the field.
Now next I’m looking at switch hitters. Josh Bell is the only one in the field. He’s kinda a fat too but he can work both sides of the box if he so chooses so that might keep him fresh, though I’d guess he’ll most likely just hit lefty the whole time. He has a natural upper cut swing. Interesting pick here, though he’s also the favorite. Fuck betting the favorite. Boring as fuck. But I’m still glued to the fact that Bell is kinda a fat so I see him tiring out.
Bell? You’re dead.
I then try to think of who’s the name nobody’s really talking about. The dark horse. The sneaky asshole that nobody will bet. For me, that’s Matt Chapman. I feel like he’s not talked about enough because he’s a straight up dude. He’s crazy strong and doesn’t really need to swing hard to hit baseballs to the moon. I LOVE his value at 10-1 here. I’m throwing a C note on him.
Then there’s the hometown player. The adrenaline will be coursing through Carlos Santana’s veins. He will either win the event in a route a la Harper last year or he’ll shit down his leg and hit like 3 in the first round and get eliminated. I feel like there’s no in between. If I had a gun to my head, I’m saying he shits down his leg this year. Won’t touch him.
That leaves us with Pete Alonso (6-1), Ronald Acuna (5-1) and Alex Bregman (7-1). I’m not touching Acuna with a 10 foot poll. Something about him just stinks to high heavens in a derby, mostly his extremely level swing.
For some reason I think he’s going to try to switch to an upper cut in order to get more loft under the ball and it’s hard for players to fuck with their swings on the fly like that. I wouldn’t be surprised if he shits out in the 1st round.
Acuna? You’re dead.
Bregman on the other hand is insanely smart. He knows he doesn’t have to change his swing in order to hit the baseball a mile. I don’t know much about Pete Alonso, but I know he’s a goddamn thoroughbred and if he gets in a rhythm, watch out. It’ll be game…. blouses.
My pick?
Matt Chapman vs. Pete Alonso in the finals with Chapman winning it. Let’s get rich.