Survivor: Edge Of Extinction Merge Preview

New Survivor tonight, and it’s going to be a big one. Based on the previews, we know we’re getting a merge and also a player returning from the Edge Of Extinction. Before we get into tonight’s episode preview, I want to quickly touch on last week’s double episode. I was unable to do a recap blog the day after, my apologies. Recorded The Short Porch on Wednesday night so couldn’t watch it live. Then spent Thursday and Friday inside a sportsbook. So couldn’t watch until the weekend and then decided to just hold off the blog for today. Not to make excuses, but those are my excuses.

I won’t do a full recap but here are my main takeaways from last week:

-Victoria is an awesome player. She played Aubry like a fiddle. I loved her confessional saying she’s not afraid about hurting feelings out here and will do anything in the game. She’s now at the top of my power rankings. A true wolf in sheep’s clothing.

-Aubry not seeing that move coming at all proves what an overrated player she is. That was a stunning lack of awareness. You’d expect more out of a three-time player. (Jeff Probst has confirmed that the idol and extra vote she received are nullified).

-Is there anything in the world Joe cannot do? Having “Joey Amazing” on your tribe is basically a cheat code to avoiding tribal council. He even knows slide puzzles! He has still not been to a tribal council this season. At this point, he might be the biggest physical threat in Survivor history.

-The joint tribal council with only one elimination was an interesting twist. I don’t love it. Kind of unfair. But it got Wendy out so that’s good. She was the easy move. The Lesu 4 of David, Wardog, Lauren, and Wentworth were in a great spot. Throwing the votes on Wendy was a smart move, courtesy of Wardog. He needs to work on his social game (Tony is a popular comparison but Tony was actually a very good social player), but he understands strategy very well. There was no way Gavin, Eric, and Victoria were willing to go to rocks for the lunatic who makes their lives miserable at camp.

-During that Tribal Council, they kept referring to David as a three-time player. That’s inaccurate. This is only his second season.

-I was all for what Keith did on the Edge Of Extinction. Why would you go look for the advantages as a tribe? Only one of you is getting back in the game. Screw everyone else. Now if this was in the actual game, Keith would be stupid because it would put a huge target on his back. But guess what? He’s already voted out. Who cares if the people don’t like you on Edge? Not like you need their votes for anything. So I’m all for what Keith did.

What To Expect Tonight

Tonight we’re getting a merge and a returning player from the Edge Of Extinction. Here’s a sneak preview CBS released.

And based on this, we know the six will compete in an obstacle course with one player returning.

Do the other five go home or back to the Edge? Will the Edge of Extinction still exist post-merge? We’ll find out tonight. My best guess is that one player returns, making it a merge of 13. The other five are officially out. The Edge of Extinction gets a fresh start, with one person returning when there’s 5 or 6 people left.

Overall, this has been a really good season so far. It’s way exceeded my low expectations. Hoping for an action-packed post merge, and I think there’s a good chance we get it. Here are my updated power rankings among the 12 people left in the game, not counting those on the Edge Of Extinction.

From most likely to win to least likely to win.

Favorites

1. Victoria - There is no clear frontrunner yet, but Victoria is the closest we have. She’s a great player, as evidenced by the Aubry move. She has been given a lot of screen time, especially for a new player. She’s in a good position, is a good player, and has had a good edit. That’s a winning recipe.

2. David - Surviving pre-merge was huge for David, I thought that’s when he’d be most vulnerable. He’s known as a social and strategic threat, but doesn’t help his tribe out physically. He should’ve been an easy pre-merge boot, but he somehow kept surviving Tribal Councils. He’s still a threat you don’t want to take to the end, but he shouldn’t be an immediate target out of the gate since he’s no threat physically. I probably have him ranked higher than he should be, but I like David and I’m starting to get that “game of destiny” feel. Feels like this just might be David’s season.

3. Gavin - I’ve had Gavin pegged as one of the favorites all season. Student of the game, well-liked, can fly under the radar for a bit. I am becoming a little worried that he doesn’t have that “winner flare” though. He’s rather boring, and we haven’t seen a moment yet where I’m like “that’s a winner’s edit.” But there’s still plenty of time for that, and for the reasons I mentioned above, he’s got as good of a chance to win as anybody.

4. Eric - He has flown under the radar for most of the game. In a typical season, he’d have a big target on his back at merge as an athletic, physical threat. Fortunately for him, he has some gigantic shields left – mainly Joe, but also David and Wentworth. He’s in a good spot. I really like the alliance of him, Gavin, and Victoria. Another guy that doesn’t necessarily feel like a winner yet, but he’s definitely in the running.

Contenders

5. Wentworth - The longer they let Wentworth last, the more dangerous she becomes. Now that sounds obvious, but it’s true. There’s a “We’ll get her eventually” mentality going on, but she keeps pushing back when “eventually” is. Pre-merge actually went well for her despite her tribes being awful. Most importantly, she survived, but she also made some genuine allies and found an idol. Now she’ll also be a physical threat in individual challenges. She still has a very tough road ahead with a giant target on her back, but she ain’t dead yet.

6. Julie - I wrote in my preseason blog that it’s extremely difficult for a woman over 40 to win Survivor. It’s been done just twice in 37 seasons. Julie has been impressive, however. She seems to understand the game and has had some strong moments in the edit. I definitely think she will be around for awhile, but it might be hard for her to break free of that “mom” stereotype and actually win.

7. The Wardog - As I said above, The Wardog definitely knows strategy. He’s put together some solid plans that have worked. But Survivor is ultimately a social experiment. You need people to like you, and that’s not the case for Wardog as he’s already aggravating Lauren, David, and Wentworth. I think his lack of social game will make it tough for him to win in the end.

Probably Not

8. Ron - In the category of “unlikely but possible.” Since he hasn’t been to tribal, we haven’t really had a chance to see his game. I do like how he’s playing Joe. He’s tough to rank as of now.

9. Lauren - Just tough to imagine a path where she wins. I imagine if she’s in the Final 3, there will be a stronger player there with her (Wentworth, David, etc.). She does have an idol which helps, but I don’t think it’s enough. Can she win? Yes. Will she? Don’t see it.

10. Aurora - I expected a lot more out of Aurora. She was one of my favorites to win early on, but she’s basically been a zero all game. Doesn’t seem to be very liked. Has cornered herself in an alliance with Joe. Hasn’t gotten a great edit. It’s tough to imagine a path where she wins this game.

11. Joe - It’s just going to be so so so hard for Joe to survive until the end. He is the biggest physical threat in maybe Survivor history. He might go on an individual immunity run, but he can’t win them all. The first time he’s vulnerable, he’ll have a huge target on his back. He’d have to play a perfect game all around to win this thing. Would be quite a story arc, but I don’t see it happening.

Definitely Not

12. Julia - A stunning lack of confessionals and screen time. I’m sure her not going to Tribal Council yet is a huge part of it, but if she was the winner, we would have seen more of her in some fashion. Her complaining about her edit on Twitter also hurts her case. Don’t think she’d care if she was a million bucks richer.

Then we have the six left on the Edge of Extinction. Personally, I would hope none of them can win. I think once you’re voted out, you should be out. It’d be tough for them to make their case to the jury about why they should win when their opponents will have the ultimate trump card – “You were already voted out!”

That being said, this is the order of who I’d like to see return to the game.

1. Rick - Really the only likable player that’s been voted out. I don’t care to see anyone else return. If Rick comes back, I think he’d have a good shot to make a deep run too.

2. Aubry - I am not a huge Aubry fan, but she’s second because of how bad the rest of this eliminated cast is. I think she can make things interesting if she returns with a vengeance.

I honestly can’t rank 3-6. From an entertainment standpoint, Wendy and Reem would cause chaos but I just hate them so much. Chris is alright, but he’s painfully boring. Keith is a cry baby. I really hope it’s Rick or Aubry.

Should be a fun episode tonight. Buckle up.