Win Streak? Browns Trying To Win Back-To-Back Games For First Time Since 2014
Somehow, someway, the Browns have found a way to have a weirder season than going 0-16 last year.
They’re 2-2-1 and have lost their two games by three points each. This team could easily be 0-5 but should probably be 4-1 or 5-0. Nevertheless, they find themselves as a relevant football team entering Week 6, after going just 1-31 the last two seasons. That my friends is what I call progress! Home games have also been a blast so far for the Browns as they haven’t lost there this season, going 2-0-1.
While the Browns did beat a “good” team last week, I think the Los Angeles Chargers are much better than the Baltimore Ravens and this should prove to be a pretty tough test for a young Cleveland team. Will playing a 1PM East Coast game matter for the West Coast Chargers? Can Baker Mayfield make due with a depleted wide receiving corp? Are the Chargers smoke and mirrors with all three wins coming against bad teams? Does Hue Jackson know the overtime rules yet? There are a ton of questions for today’s game.
It was not a great week for me last week as I missed both the spread and the over/under in the Browns’ matchup with the Ravens. The game last Sunday was tough to bet, and I think this week’s is even harder to pick.
Let me be clear, I am not going to throw any money down on this game. The line is funky and swung throughout the week. Being at home gives the Browns a bit of a bump into the -1-favorite slot, but the game is essentially a pick-em. Plain and simple, I just think the Chargers are a better team, so that is going to be the pick for me.
Now if I were to put money down on this game, I would probably hit the over at 45.5. The Browns’ defense has been solid, but I don’t think the matchup against Philip Rivers suits them well at all (more on this later). Points will be scored in this one, as I don’t think the defenses will fair all that well against each other, unlike last week.
ATS PICK: Chargers +1, Over 45.5
MY RECORD: Line – 3-2, O/U – 2-3
The injury bug has been very cruel to the Browns so far this season, but they have mostly been able to adapt to it pretty well. This week’s challenge will be at the wide receiver position where Rashard Higgins is out (week-to-week with a knee injury) and his replacement Derrick Willies hurt himself in practice during the week and is also out for the game. Willies actually hurt himself enough (fractured collarbone) to find himself on injured reserve, with a designation to return. Last week, Willies came in for Higgins and had the biggest catch of the game…
I was pretty excited for Willies this week just based on his size alone (6’4”, 205), but now Baker Mayfield is going to need to rely on the next man up once again.
The Chargers also have a good bunch of injuries heading into Sunday, as well. Obviously, Joey Bosa is not going to play, but you can also add linebacker Kyzir White and wide receiver (former Cleveland Brown) Travis Benjamin to that list as well. Another linebacker, Jatavis Brown is listed as doubtful prior to game time and offensive tackles Russell Okung and Joe Barksdale are both questionable.
With how solid the Browns have been off the edge on defense with Myles Garrett, Emmanuel Ogbah and Genard Avery, the offensive line injuries for the Chargers could prove to be as big, or bigger, than the Browns’ wide receiver issues.
UPDATE: The Chargers will be using Mike Badgley at kicker today with start Caleb Sturgis now ruled out.
UPDATE II: Joe Barksdale is out.
Since their first matchup in 1970, the Chargers lead the series against the Browns with a 16-9-1 record. This decade, however, the teams are split with identical 2-2 records against each other. This has actually been a pretty great series recently with four of the last five matchups being decided by three points or less.
JEFF’S FUN PREVIOUS MATCHUP STORY
This is a pretty obvious choice, right?
Everyone has seen this clip by now. This missed field goal for the Chargers came in 2016 on Christmas Eve and, prior to their win against the Jets, had been the Browns’ only win in the last three seasons. That 1-31 record? Yeah, that was the one win.
All eyes for the Browns this week will be on the wide receivers.
The wide receiver position has been absolutely brutal for the Browns and Baker Mayfield.
That is just absolutely terrible, especially when you consider the fact that they’re doing this to a rookie quarterback trying to build up some confidence. Luckily, Baker has been able to shake it off and still perform. But now he has to deal with a running back, two backups and a new guy filling in for the injured Rashard Higgins and Derrick Willies.
It sounds as though running back Duke Johnson, who has been wildly underutilized, will be the slot guy and third wide receiver for Baker.
After that big run against the Ravens last week, Johnson shrugged his shoulders with a very obvious “why the fuck are you not giving me the ball more?” expression on his face. Even before the injuries, Johnson, possibly the Browns’ most explosive player, was a guy Todd Haley needed to get more involved in the offense.
The three other options for Baker this week include an unproven rookie, a guy signed in the beginning of the season and a newly signed former first-round pick who has a history of drops
Ratley actually excites me a little bit, because he has good size and speed, and that is something the Browns need with their other wide receivers, Jarvis Landry, Antonio Callaway and Johnson, all being smaller.
Rod Streater played last week and was involved in easily the worst play call of the game.
My goodness. What a fucking terrible play call! Luckily, Baker scrambled on the next play for a big chunk of yards and then threw the game-changing strike to Willies one play later.
Lastly, despite working out Rishard Matthews last week, the Browns signed Breshad Perriman to their active roster (UPDATE: He is inactive for their game against the Chargers).
Oh boy. Perriman has been the butt of many jokes over the years, from his hairline…
(Good call going bald) …to never seeing the field early in his career and his slew of dropped passes. He does have blazing speed and great size, so maybe Baker can find a way to channel his talent? Who knows, but I really want Rashard Higgins to return, especially having been a fairly reliable target for the rookie quarterback.
Bottom line this week: Jarvis Landry, Antonio Callaway, and tight end David Njoku cannot fail Baker Mayfield this week. All three have had their issues with drops and many of them have resulted in drive killers. If they can have a good game as a group, the Browns might be able to win this one.
A big reason why I do give the Browns a chance, despite my confidence that the Chargers are the better team, is because the Los Angeles defense isn’t all that great and has injuries. They have a knack for giving up some big plays, which should be something Baker, Landry, and Callaway try and feast on.
Baker needs to hold onto the football, that goes without saying, but, despite Colin Cowturd hating on Baker…
…I think he was pretty solid last week. The interception wasn’t really his fault and he was very serviceable in moving the football and keeping the defense off the field for the Browns. Cowherd saying the team is “stacked” and not acknowledging the drops issue just lends more value to the idea that he is a big full diaper of a human.
The line has to keep Baker upright this week, and they should have an easier time, but the run game is also a need, as well. They were able to grind it out last week, but the Browns’ offense is going to have to score more than just 12 points.
This group has garnered a ton of hype, and most of it is deserved, but this matchup will prove if they’re truly elite or just a middle-of-the-road defense.
Led by Denzel Ward, who won his second Rookie of the Week Award…
…the Browns’ defense is set to go up against a team that excels at the one area they haven’t been able to stop since Week 1: the screen game.
Because Gregg Williams is insistent on the blitzing the ever-living shit out of his opponents, the Browns have been super vulnerable against the screen pass. Each game has seen the team burned by a couple of screen plays that set up quick scores for the opponent.
The Chargers’ screen game, with targets Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler to throw to, is absolutely lethal.
It doesn’t help the Browns either that Philip Rivers has been elite this season against pressure.
If Gregg Williams doesn’t dial back on the blitzes this week, the Browns might lose this game by four touchdowns. A big issue has also been tackling as the Browns linebackers, including the usually-good Joe Schobert and Christian Kirksey, just haven’t been able to wrap up ball carriers this season.
This is a recipe for disaster for the Browns’ defense, but I do think, with that stout secondary, they might be able to prove me wrong this afternoon. If they can close out the middle-to-deep passing game for Rivers, they might be able to key in on and bottle up his bread-and-butter stuff as well.
The big area the Browns have to win on defensively is at the line of scrimmage. With a hobbled and injured offense line, Myles Garrett, Emmanuel Ogbah, Larry Ogunjobi, and Genard Avery have to get to Rivers all day. So far this season, Avery, a rookie out of Memphis, has been excellent for the Browns.
As noted above, Rivers has been great under pressure, so the Browns need to get to him quickly and disrupt the play immediately. They’re not the better team, so the Browns have to take advantage of any weakness that is present for the Chargers.
Derwin James versus Denzel Ward.
Arguably the two best rookies in the NFL so far this season (I’ll throw Saquon Barkley in the mix as well), James and Ward will likely battle it out through Week 17 for Defensive Rookie of the Year (yes, I know the Colts’ Darius Leonard has a ton of tackles,,, but shut up).
I might give the edge to Derwin James right now, with his three sacks bumping him up a bit, but these guys are essentially neck and neck and already studs for their respective teams. They both make flashy plays and should be a ton of fun to watch on Sunday.
Uhm…
HAMMER THE BEARS.
I am pretty confident the Chargers win today, mostly because of the Browns’ inability to stop the one thing Philip Rivers has excelled at most this season. The Browns aren’t a bad team anymore and could be considered better than just mediocre, so I won’t count them out. But I just can’t pick them to win games yet consistently.
If they do win, though, they’ll be 3-2-1 heading into a very winnable game against the Buccaneers. They won’t be competing for a title this season, but things become very real if they can find a way to beat the Chargers
GAME PREDICTION: Chargers defeat the Browns, 31-20