2018 NBA Season Preview Series: Sacramento Kings

OK, I’ll admit, I have a soft spot for the Baby Kings. It usually starts around Summer League when their new prized rookie looks awesome. Then it reaches another level during preseason where they also look good against “real” NBA talent. Every season I tell myself to not get sucked into the hype, that the Kings still play in the brutal Western Conference and they are MILES away from being as good as my heart wants them to be. Hell, I even predicted they would win 40 games last year to give you an idea how hard it is for me to stay away and think rationally about them. Their young talent is just so damn intriguing and I keep telling myself that sooner or later, things will click. Now before I try and explain my rationale as to why THIS Kings team may finally do it, first let’s relive their 2017 season

2017-18 Season Highlights

You see, I’m not crazy! Ok maybe a little crazy but you just saw for yourself, there’s promise somewhere in this team! And sure, maybe they haven’t made the playoffs since 2005-06 and have averaged just 28 wins over that span while also having 7 head coaches but stop focusing on the facts and just try and believe. With Vlad calling the shots and a roster full of promising young talent, it’s only a matter of times before they figure it out and don’t lose 50+ games. I mean look at this roster

The 8th youngest team with an average age of 25.1, it’d be lower if they didn’t have ZBo, but are you going to tell that man to retire? I didn’t think so. Add it all up and the Kings have the 29th most expensive roster in the league at just $84,648,212. Now obviously the reason for that is because almost half of their roster is still on their rookie deals. That allows them to lead the league in available cap space this season at $11M, and while I can’t see them making any major moves, they definitely could be part of a three teamer in order to absorb cap money in exchange for additional assets. But let’s say this is how their roster looks all season, what do they have? Well, with the addition of Bjelica they added some outside shooting, they have their franchise cornerstones in Fox and Bagley III, and the rest for the most part are loaded with potential. There really isn’t a bad contract on this roster, maybe Shumpert for $11M, but in a pinch you have the depth where you can afford to move him in the right deal.

Hell, even retreads like Ben McLemore are just 25 and cost pretty much nothing, and who knows maybe he turns out to be actually serviceable. To be honest, I’d be lying if I said this team didn’t have a ways to go, and the numbers support it. Dead last in scoring last season at 98.8 points per game, they can for sure go on scoring droughts. Their 103.0 Ortg was only better than PHX, and mostly their issues revolve around one constant issue: this team can’t shoot. I’m talking about a league worst 52.9% true shooting%. Now this isn’t to say there aren’t decent shooters on this roster which makes their production a little confusing. Guys like Bogdanovic are legit with 44/39% splits, Buddy Hield was at 44/43%, Skal lived at 44/35%, and ZBo at 47/34%. Their issues really come from the point guard spot. where Fox only averaged 41/30% while being third on the team in FGA, and Frank Mason who put up 37/36%. I truly believe if they get more efficient scoring from their guard spot, it’s going to make all the difference in the world. Fox especially considering he’s their point guard of the future. He is so damn exciting as a player, you would think his shot comes around as he gets older and used to the NBA, considering he’s only 20.

In terms of style, the Kings are average in sets like isolation (.90 points per possession), and transition (1.11 points per possession) which is what you would expect from a young team. At the same time they struggle in P&R using the ball handler, spot up shooting, and post ups. So how can this roster help solve those deficiencies? Well let’s start with some of the new guys. Obviously for a team that basically couldn’t score out of the post, the addition of Marvin Bagley III should help. Dump it down there and let the kid go to work. He’s shown flashes this preseason that he could be just the thing so solve their post issues

In terms of their spot up issues, my suggestion is to get Buddy Hield and Bjelica more opportunities. Hield was 7th on the team in spot up frequency last season, but in terms of their shooters, only trailed Bogdanovic in FG% with 43.3%. They need to find a way to get him more opportunities as he’s without a doubt one of their best pure shooters. Then with Bjelica, who also shot 43.1% in those same type of plays, the Kings now have a couple more options that address an immediate need. The same can be said with their struggles coming off screens. I’m thinking things are a little bit better this season in that area simply because the Kings can throw out an additional shooter.

Now on the defensive end, as you would expect with a super young team. the Kings stink on that end. I mean really stink. The 27th Drtg in the NBA at 110.3, none of this matters if they can’t figure out how to defend. At the same time, what do you expect on a team filled with rookies? Of course they don’t know what they’re doing at that end. I’m not saying they have to be elite, but with the talent on this team, why can’t they be like…..as good as Orlando? They ranked 20th in the league at 109.3. Imagine what this team would look like if they weren’t giving up 105 a night. If you can’t tell by now, with an improved offense now that guys are used to the league, a slight improvement on the defensive end can make a world of difference for this team. Not playoff caliber or anything, but also not worst in the league type stuff. They already do a great job at defending the paint (4th fewest points allowed), so I believe there is a foundation there to build off of.

Obviously, you can’t talk about the Kings without spending a minute on what in my opinion is their biggest question mark. Harry Giles. What we know is Giles fucking rules when he’s healthy

If Giles is able to be 100% healthy this season, now we’re cooking with gas. He wasn’t the highest recruited player coming out of high school by accident, and his only issue has been keeping his knees healthy. You watch him this preseason and it’s impossible to not get excited. If he is for real, a three headed monster of Fox/Bagley/Giles is pretty damn good for the foreseeable future. Many thought the Kings reached at 21 to take him, but everything we’ve seen so far suggests it may have been one of the best steals of the draft. Now him staying healthy is a HUGE if, I mean it doesn’t get any bigger than Giles, but I’m choosing to believe because I want to see him live up to the hype. His ability to attack the rim, the inside/outside game, the passing, the dude is talented as hell so I’m going to need every single person reading this blog to say a quick prayer for him. We need Harry Giles to stay healthy, I don’t care if you aren’t even a Kings fan. Just do it.

So will the Kings most likely lose a lot of games? Of course. Does that suck because they do not own their first round pick next summer? You betcha. But that doesn’t mean they won’t be incredibly fun to watch. One of those teams you stay up late for and watch on League Pass because on any given night they may score 120, but also give up 120. Who knows, in 3-5 years maybe this team is fighting for a playoff spot and things feel like they were in the early 2000s. There’s no denying there is talent on this roster, now it’s just time for them to put it back together.

Official Greenie Prediction: 33 wins