2018 NBA Season Preview Series: Minnesota Timberwolves

Alright, hand up. Maybe not the best idea to throw a team in a poll that is 100% going to change sooner or later. I think my strategy here was that hopefully if I put the Wolves in, that it would make the Butler trade actually happen. Breaking news: it didn’t. Now I know. So while part of me thought about just tossing out another poll today and doing this blog tomorrow, the stoolies have spoken and they want to read about the dumpster fire that is the Timberwolves. Who am I to deprive them of that? So while pretty much everything I am about to talk about is going to change, let’s just pretend for a few minutes. We’ll go with the assumption that Butler is gone, and that nothing they get in return is going to make all that much of a difference, because let’s face it, it probably won’t. Of course, before we get into what is on the horizon for MIN fans, we first have to relive what was the best season this franchise has seen in over a decade.

2017-18 Season Highlights

When I say that last season was the best season the Timberwolves have had in over a decade, I’m not being dramatic. Their 47 wins were the most since the 2003-04 season when they won 58 and made the WCF, and while they lost in the first round of the playoffs, it was their first appearance since that season, a good 14 years. There are a lot of tortured fan bases in the NBA, but I’m not sure many have had it worse than MIN fans. You combine the brutal weather, with averaging around 29 wins over that 14 year span, and yeah that’s not the most ideal situation. Then, when they made the trade for Jimmy Butler last summer, that was supposed to be what finally changed the fortunes of this franchise. You pair him with KAT/Wiggins and on paper the Wolves really have something. That proved to be true too, because when Jimmy Butler was healthy, this team won at a 3 seed clip. They were legit. Fans all over the Twin Cities were excited. But, then he got hurt, the flamed out in the playoffs, and now their franchise is right back to where it was in 2016. A disaster. I feel for MIN fans because they must have felt like the dark days were finally behind them, only to be kicked right in the dick in classic Minnesota sports fashion. Brutal. So, as it stands right now, even though we know this is changing sooner or later, here is how their roster looks today

A total salary of $120,158,673, this doesn’t even factor in KAT’s extension so this number is only going to go up. Even if they trade Butler, the money is going to have to be close so we can assume they will enter next season around this number. For a team that is looking like it’s headed for the Lottery, this is the 11th most expensive roster in the NBA. Not great! You look up and down the roster and the obvious disaster is the Gorgui Dieng money, and that’s not coming off the books any time soon as he has 3 more years left on that, and no team wants to take that off MIN’s hands. I’m not all that crazy about the Teague deal either, and I don’t think MIN is as well considering they are open for guard trades. While it’s true they have their franchise cornerstones in KAT/Wiggins who are both under 24, outside of that this team isn’t exactly loaded with young talent. Remember the idea here was that their window was NOW with the Butler trade, and other than unproved guys like Justin Patton who can’t stay healthy and rookie Josh Okogie, things don’t look all that great from a talent depth perspective. I will say I do like Tyus Jones, who is from Apple Valley, MN, but Thibs hates him and refuses to play him so who knows what we can expect from him this upcoming year.

No matter who it ends up being on the other end of a Jimmy Butler deal, this team simply doesn’t have enough talent to hang in the West. Unless Wiggins makes some sort of crazy leap, which, I think is a stretch, this team could very well end up back on the outside looking in once it comes to playoff time. In all honesty, their success last season was a little weird. When you look at how they finished in a lot of key areas last year, it’s a little concerning. This was a team that was 30th in 3PM a night (8.0), 24th in rebounding (42.0), 18th in assists (22.7), 24th in blocks (4.2), and 25th in Drtg (110). What about that is the look of a playoff team in a ridiculously competitive conference?

Their saving grace was simply their offense, despite the lack of outside shooting. The Wolves did have a top 5 Ortg at 112, which is impressive considering Butler only played 59 games. They ranked 4th in FGM a night which was probably due to KAT being an absolute offensive force, but there was also some good scoring depth on last year’s roster. A total of 6 players in double figures, and then some decent shooting from Bjelica helped, but both he and Jamal Crawford are no longer there. I look at that roster now, and where is that same sort of offensive production going to come from? Anthony Tolliver? Maybe Rose doubles his scoring from last year or something? I’m not sure. I’ll tell you this, without Butler on the roster things are going to have to change. No longer can they be a team that runs isolation 8.7% (5th highest) of the time. It doesn’t matter who they get back, they can toss that offensive approach right out the window. Wiggins isolation isn’t the answer, as he scored 0.67 points per iso possession and shot 30% in isolation sets so no chance that’s where they go. If I had to guess, maybe now they will finally stop ignoring KAT on the offensive end. NO excuse that he averaged only 14 FGA a night. If I were MIN, I would double their P&R sets where the offense goes to the roll man. They ran this 7% of the time but were effective, with 1.10 points per possession on 51.2%. He already lived right outside AD’s production in this area, so going to it more should only improve his production.

Second, use KAT in spot up situations. That may seem weird since he’s a big, but don’t over think things. A ridiculous 1.24 points per possession this was good for the 91st percentile. Basically what Paul George and Devin Booker bring to the table. It’ll also be important that Thibs goes back to the basics and gives KAT ample post up opportunities. A solid 1.04 points per possession there, he’s basically as good as LeBron is in the post, which is pretty damn unstoppable. Basically the moral of the story here is in order for MIN to make up for the difference of losing Butler on the offensive end, the answer is more KAT, not more Wiggins

However, the elephant in the room when it comes to this team will always be their defense. Thibs was supposed to come in and fix things since he was a defensive minded coach, and frankly that hasn’t happened. They are one of the worst teams I’ve ever seen at defending the P&R, which is pretty important considering every NBA team runs this set about 10,000 times a night. I’m not sure if it’s an effort thing or a talent thing, but their two most important players in KAT/Wiggins have not taken any major steps forward in their defense development. I think Wiggins is the bigger issue because his offense isn’t nearly as good, so his 113 Drtg last year certainly sticks out more. With KAT, while you love the offense, what good does it do you if he can’t ever get a stop on the other end (107 Drtg)? The Wolves last season were tied for the worst defended FG% in the league at 47.6%. Opponents averaged 50.1% against them on the season, combining guarded and unguarded shots. Over 50%!!!!! I can’t even begin to describe how awful that is. It’s basically SAC/PHX/ORL territory. I guess this is what happens when your players tune out your head coach when the only thing your head coach was supposed to do was improve the defense.

If all this sounds pretty doom and gloom, well, welcome to being a Minnesota Timberwolves fan. It shouldn’t have come to this, everything we saw last year told us things were finally different. For a time they were, but those days are long gone and unfortunately I can’t see any way they come out of this whole ordeal as competitive as they were at this time last season.  Ts + Ps to all the fine MIN fans out there, you deserve better.

Official Greenie Prediction: 49 wins (with Butler…lol) 37 wins (without Butler)