2018 NBA Season Preview Series: San Antonio Spurs

Unlike our last preview blog that was a bit of a runaway for OKC, this round we had a tightly contested battle between the Pacers and Spurs. I would have liked if any of these teams ended up being the stoolies’ choice, and while these may not be the San Antonio Spurs you’ve grown accustomed to over the last 20 goddamn years, that doesn’t mean they are’t without intrigue. Now that the dust has settled with the Kawhi trade and any last trace of their HOF Big 3 is gone, this has to be the first season at least in my lifetime that nobody really knows what to expect from this group. On some level we want to believe they’ll be the same old Spurs because that’s what they always are, but before I make up my mind I want to take a closer look at everything. Obviously before we do that we need to look back at what was a drama filled 2017-18 season

2017-18 Season Highlights

By all accounts, last season was a year of firsts for the Spurs and their loyal fans. The first time in 20 years they didn’t win 50 games. The first time in 20 years they did not finish in the top two spots of their division. For a while there it looked like the Spurs could seriously miss the playoffs all together, something that hadn’t happened since 1996 (trigger warning for some). As a franchise that has become a model of consistency, and one of the best organizations in the history of the league, it felt weird to see the Spurs start to deal with the same sort of dysfunction like any other regular NBA team. Obviously a lot of that had to do with Kawhi and his refusal to play. When your best player quits on your team, that’s never going to end well. Their reward for scratching to make the playoffs was a first round date with the Warriors, and well, no shit that was a quick series. So in some ways, this is uncharted waters for the Spurs and their fans, but something tells me they’ll be better than many project. Popovich/LMA/DeRozan are still there, and there is some young promise on this roster. Speaking of which, this is how it looks as of today

All in all, this roster costs $122,617,513 which puts them 10th in the entire NBA. Not bad for a small market team, and really outside of POR (who has a stupid rich owner), there really aren’t any other small market teams in the Top 10. So even though it may have felt like the Spurs just find a way to win while saving money, that’s not exactly true. They are paying a pretty penny to stay competitive in the West, but in looking up and down their roster, I don’t really see a bad contract on their books. Maybe Gasol, but this is the last fully guaranteed year of his deal so you live with it.

When you look at this roster the bad news is it’s the 3rd oldest roster in the league with an average age of 27.5. Only the Heat and Mavs are older, and I feel like with DAL that’s obviously do to Dirk the same way SA’s age is impacted by Gasol. The Spurs are in that weird spot where this is currently their window to compete, with guys like DeRozan/LMA/Gasol/Gay are on the back nine of their career (DeRozan is about to make the turn), but at the same time they have a bunch of intriguing young players. I think all of us, not just Spurs fans are interested to see if Dejounte Murray is going to take a leap now that he has the keys to the car with Tony Parker gone, and then guys like Derrick White, Lonnie Walker IV, and Chimezie Metu just have that feel of players that are going to be great Spurs. Don’t ask me to explain why, you know it’s true. The Spurs are going to nail late round draft picks because that’s just who they are.

So how can a team that struggled to make the playoffs get better this upcoming season when it seems like all the teams around them also got better? Teams like LAC, DEN, LAL are all going to be fighting for the 6-8 playoff spots, which means there are going to be teams last season that end up in next year’s lottery. The easy choice is clearly MIN, but that means someone like NO or SA may find themselves on the outside looking in. I can’t even comprehend a season in which the Spurs miss the playoffs, that almost seems impossible, so in order for that disaster to be avoided, certain things are going to have to happen.

First, they are going to need LMA to back up his monstrous 2017-18 season. After talking about how he was unhappy in SA, he got his extension and balled the fuck out. If this team wants to go anywhere, he’s going to have to live close to his 23.1/8.5/2.0 on 51% shooting. I wouldn’t exactly call this a slam dunk considering 27% of his points came from the midrange area, where he shot 42% on 7.4 attempts a game. That’s a shit ton of midrange jumpers, which isn’t always the most reliable level to score from. Add in the fact that SA is adding a high usage player in DeRozan, it wouldn’t shocked me if LMA didn’t have that same 29.1% usage rate as I’m sure Pop will be doing everything he can to keep his veterans fresh. That’s why this year maybe more than ever before, the development of SA’s young talent is so important. Players like Mills/Murray/Walker IV/White/Bertans are going to have to make sure they can be consistent, because you know vets like LMA/Gasol/Gay are going to get more than their fair share of rest.

If I were a Spurs fan, while I may be sad about the departure of Kawhi, you could do a whole lot worse in terms of a replacement. Something tells me if DeRozan does stuff like this

they’ll forget all about Kawhi. Now it’s not all positive. It’ll be interesting to see how DeRozan’s iso/midrange heavy style fits into how Popovich likes to play. DeRozan took around 6 midrange FGA a night last season while shooting 42%, so between him and Aldridge, that’s a shit ton of 15 foot jumpers. In terms of Isolation, DeRozan ran this on 13% of his sets in TOR which may seem like a lot, but I actually don’t see this being a problem for the SA offense. You see Kawhi ran iso 14% last year, and 12.6% the year before. Even with the iso heavy Gay on the roster, they’ll essentially be able to use DeRozan in the exact same way they used Kawhi. Now I know what you’re thinking, that there’s no way DeRozan can replicate the three point shooting of Kawhi. Well hold on just a second here. DeRozan shot 31% last year (same as Kawhi) and made 1.1 3PM to his 1.2. Now back in 2o16 Kawhi made 2.0 on 38%, but all signs last season told bus that DeRozan has seriously worked on his outside shot. And honestly, three point shooting isn’t even really a big part of SA’s offense. They ranked 28th in the league in 3PM last year as well as 27th in 3PA. The Spurs want to slow it down (29th slowest pace) on offense and beat you in the half court, where they led the league in Post ups, two things that suit DeRozan and LMA well, and then on the other end suffocate you with league best defense (4th best Drtg).

It’s on the defensive end where I’m most concerned when it comes to SA. Sure they survived last year without Kawhi, but there is a lot more firepower this time around. It is here where I think we’ll see the main difference in the Kawhi/DeRozan swap. Coming from an elite defensive team in TOR, DeRozan still had a 109 Drtg, which would have been in the Tony Parker range on this Spurs team last season. Losing defenders like Kawhi, Kyle Anderson, and Danny Green is certainly no joke, especially when you’re replacing them with young unproven talent and your other players are now a year older. I’m really excited to see if Murray can build off his strong defensive season just a year ago, because there’s serious potential for him and Lonnie Walker IV to be beasts on the perimeter.

People also shouldn’t sleep on the potential of decent rotation minutes from someone like Jakob Poeltl. He had a bit of a breakout season last year in TOR, and his skillset definitely is something SA needs in terms of defense and rim protection. His 104 rating and 2.4 defensive win shares is no joke, and he saw his minutes jump up to 18 a night. If he gets that same opportunity in SA, it wouldn’t shock me if he continues to trend upwards in terms of his production. His role will be important because the last thing I’m sure Popovich wants to do is have to put Bertans down low and away from the perimeter where his shooting will help create space for SA’s wings to penetrate, so getting quality minutes from Poeltl is going to be crucial for the 3rd year big.

Part of me feels silly for being even slightly concerned when it comes to the Spurs, if only because they’ve never given any of us a reason to over the last 20 or so years. It’s fair to say Popovich has earned the benefit of the doubt, but who knows how long he’ll last in SA. He could retire at any moment now that his Big 3 are all gone, so while my heart wants to say this season will look like the same old Spurs, but head wants to wait and see. The West is so loaded, there’s a chance there will be no postseason basketball in San Antonio for the first time in forever. Some may consider the Spurs boring, but for me, they are one of the more interesting stories of the entire league.

Official Greenie Prediction: 47 wins