2018 NBA Season Preview Series: Phoenix Suns

Listen, not every team can win the title or even make the playoffs, especially when we start talking about the Western Conference. That shit is stacked like you read about. But just because a team may stink in terms of their win/loss record at the moment does not mean their fans shouldn’t be excited about the future. So for this blog I wanted to focus on the kinda stinky teams that many pundits aren’t expecting much from but are still absolutely worth your time on League Pass. The Suns fit that perfectly, and this was before they went ahead and made a trade out of left field and now no longer have a starting caliber point guard. We’ll get to all that in a moment, but first we should probably look back and see how their 2017 season looked

2017-18 Season Highlights

The Suns are such an interesting team to me, despite the fact that they may not even win 30 games. There aren’t a whole lot of bottom of the league teams you can say that about, but when it comes to the suns there is so much there that intrigues me. Here’s what we know about the Suns. We know they won just 21 games last year, and haven’t cracked the 30s since the 2014 season. When they started the 2017 season, they managed to pull off 18 wins by the All Star Break which means you guessed it, finished 3-20. I mean anyone with a brain agreed with the decision, with franchise changing talents available at the top of last year’s draft, it was exactly how I would want the Suns to treat the second half if I were a Suns fan. The good news is it paid off, they got the #1 pick, and now have a franchise monster in DeAndre Ayton. If you look at the Suns for what they are, which is a rebuild, then you have to take the win totals with a grain of salt. At this point for the most part they are still at the acquire talent stage, however there are some questions and further expectations around specific players like Devin Booker. With that in mind, as of today here is their current roster

A total of $104,323,361, the Suns are owners of the 23rd most expensive roster in the NBA. Typical in a rebuild, a majority of their payroll is still in their rookie contracts, and their first big extension doesn’t kick in until next year. Obviously things have changed over the last few days in terms of this roster with the addition of Ryan Anderson, and they spent a bulk of their cap space this summer on Trevor Ariza, so it’s clear they are trying to bring in as many veterans as possible. If you remember back in June, their GM had this to say

Well that’s exactly what he did. He also traded his starting point guard and currently doesn’t have a starting caliber player on his roster, but that’s besides the point. Both of those veterans do fit an area of need for this Suns team. Ariza is coming off a great year in HOU and is an immediate upgrade in their outside shooting and overall defense. This team needs exactly what he provides, even if he’ll eventually get bought out, probably at the deadline. Anderson helps them spread the floor and have more of a consistent outside presence. The Suns ranked 23rd in 3PM last season, so having a guy who essentially only takes and makes threes certainly will help things.

But these guys are not why I’m excited to watch the Suns. That comes from the Booker/Warren/Ayton/Jackson/Bridges group. That is an exciting as hell group of guys who are ALL 25 or younger. In fact, other than Warren everyone is 22 or younger. If the goal of a rebuild is to get young high end talent, well that’s honestly what we have here in PHX. They have their franchise guy in Booker, a proven scorer and a player poised to be one of the best in the league at some point in his career. Remember he’s just 21 and he became the 4th youngest player ever to 3,000 points. He does things that look like this

Now there are some out there that I’m sure will want to point out that during Booker’s entire NBA career, the Suns have stunk out loud. Here’s why I don’t put all that much stock into it when evaluating Booker as a player. We saw a similar trend with Kyrie back when he was in CLE, they struggled to win in the East, but his talent was there. LeBron came back and with better talent around him the team was better and he proved to be the star everyone thought he would be when his team was barely winning. That’s how I feel about Booker. Sure you want to see some progress in the wins department, but we should all understand that talent level matters in this league. Not to mention he plays in the West, which you may have heard has some good players in it. If he can carry the Suns to around mid 30s in wins, then I would view that as a success given where they are in their rebuild process.

Then when you think of where the NBA is headed, and you look back at what Josh Jackson was able to do as a rookie, there’s more reason for excitement. Right off the bat when it comes to his second season leap, it has to come from his shooting. Jackson had just 41/26% splits, and I would say he lived up to his slasher type reputation. He’s obviously at his best in transition and attacking the rim, but that next level is making opponents respect your jumper so that everything else can open up for you. Right now, Jackson shot just 34% in the non restricted area, 37% in the midrange, and you don’t even want to know the splits from deep. They aren’t good. His other area of improvement isn’t just a Jackson problem but an every Sun on the roster problem. His defense needs to drastically improve. Opponents shot 47% while being defended by Jackson, and his 112 Drtg certainly isn’t ideal. Jackson is good at reading passing lanes so he’s always going to get steals, but given his athleticism and size, he should be a much better overall defender. I would imagine now that he’s gone through an NBA season, his defense is going to be somewhat improved.

And of course, the rookies. Both Ayton and Bridges are two great prospects to add into the mix, and I think everyone is excited to see what Ayton looked like. If Summer League was any indication, it looks like Ayton will translate just fine once the games count for real

In theory Ayton should help the Suns on the defensive end, even as he learns the speed of the NBA, just adding him to the rotation makes them better. He also showed that his scoring ability aka just getting it close to then basket and dunking on people should be effective, but you could also use him in a pick and pop if his jumper proves to be consistent. Then with Bridges, you have another guy coming into this system that in theory should help them with their outside shooting. The Suns played at the second fastest pace in the NBA last season, so it’s clear they want to play fast and have as many shooters on the floor as possible. That’s the type of stuff that makes a rebuilding team worth the watch on League Pass. You never when they are going to get hot and stop like 120 points or something. They may give up 125, but at least it’s still entertaining basketball.

But like I said, unless the Suns as a team seriously address their defense, it doesn’t matter what their offense looks like,. You simply cannot play the style and level of defense PHX does and think you are going to be even remotely successful in this league. I think you’d be surprised what just a slight improvement would look like. Instead of being 30th in Drtg, what if they could be like, 22nd? Or maybe even 20? That’s like Clippers/MIL level. Then, instead of being 30th in Ortg, what if all this influx of talent gets them to like 19th, or basically what the Pistons just did. I just want to see any sign of progress, now that the talent is mostly in place. There is a good mix of veteran and young talent where you would expect to see some growth. Now this doesn’t mean there aren’t still huge holes and huge questions, mostly how is Devin Booker going to respond to running more point? He already had a 31% usage rate last year while playing 35 minutes a game.

It can’t be that hard to improve when the overall goal is “just don’t be 30th in both offense and defense”. At this point when it comes to the Suns it’s about enjoying the young athletic talent who are capable of crazy things, and if they win more games great. If not, it’s no big deal, the Suns window hasn’t even been cracked open. I really want to believe in the hype so maybe I’m more optimistic about the Suns than others, I just know I can’t wait to stay up way past my bedtime to watch a random Suns/Kings double OT thriller that includes absolutely zero defense.

Official Greenie Prediction: 31 wins